Win Totals

Golden State Warriors under 29.5 wins (-110)

Houston Rockets under 33.5 wins (-110)

L.A. Clippers over 41.5 wins (-120)

Orlando Magic over 37 wins (-110)

Portland Blazers over 36.5 wins (-110)

Sacramento Kings over 20.5 wins (-110)

Toronto Raptors over 17 wins (-110)

Washington Wizards over 20 wins (-130)

Other Miscellaneous:

Carmelo Anthony to lead the league in scoring average (7:1)

Dwight Howard to lead the league in rebounding average (2:1)

LeBron James over 26.5 points per game (-115)

Dwight Howard over 20.5 points per game (-125)

And now, for my mega-NBA preview:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Miami Heat

Last year: 58-24 (no other relevant seasons)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 50.5 (82-game equivalent of 62.5)

Upside: Probably the most talented team in the league…They should naturally have better chemistry in their second season playing together… Despite winning 58 games last year they seemed to struggle mightily at stretches last season… They should have a chip on their shoulder after their performance in the Finals… The addition of Shane Battier could be huge… Udonis Haslem played only 12 games last season and is now healthy… Only noteworthy loss was Mike Bibby who was replaced by promising rookie point guard Norris Cole.

Downside: LeBron, Wade and Bosh played in 79, 76 and 77 games, respectively, last season. If any of these guys get injured for an extended stretch, the over could be difficult to achieve.

Consensus: OVER 50.5 (-110)

Prediction: 53-13 (#1 seed in East)

Chicago Bulls

Last year: 62-20 (41-41 the year before pre-Boozer and Thibodeau)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 47.5 (82-game equivalent of 59.5)

Upside: Bring back the same core as last season’s 62-win team (Rose, Noah, Boozer, Deng, Gibson, Korver) and slotted Rip Hamilton at 2-guard, replacing Keith Bogans… Boozer and Noah played only 59 and 48 games last season respectively and both appear healthy for now.

Downside: Deng had a career-year last season and played 82 games.

Consensus: UNDER 47.5 (-105)

Prediction: 47-19 (#2 seed in East)

Orlando Magic

Last year: 52-30 (59-23, 59-23, 52-30 in prior 3 years dating back to the Howard/SVG era)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 37 (82-game equivalent of 46.5)

Upside: If Dwight Howard plays out the whole year, they should exceed 37 wins… It’s effectively the same supporting cast that helped them reach 50 wins in each of the last 4 seasons, now featuring Jameer Nelson, Jason Richardson, J.J. Redick, Hedo Turkoglu, Ryan Anderson and Glen Davis… There were several in-season moves last year (trading Carter, Lewis, acquiring Turkoglu and Richardson) that may have impacted chemistry so now maybe they can finally gel, as Richardson clearly did not play up to his potential once joining the team… The Brook Lopez injury makes an in-season trade less likely… Even if Howard gets traded midseason, the Magic still have a chance to exceed this total depending on what they get in return, as the Nuggets did last year after they traded Carmelo.

Downside: If Dwight Howard gets traded for 25 cents on the dollar, they’re obviously in trouble.

Consensus: OVER 37 (-110)

Prediction: 43-23 (#3 seed in East)

Boston Celtics

Last year: 56-26 (50-32, 62-20, 66-16 in the “Big 4” era)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 39.5 (82-game equivalent of 48.5)

Upside: They bring back the same core that has won at least 50 games in each of the last 4 seasons and as long as they are all healthy they are still a top-3 team in the East.

Downside: Garnett is 35, Pierce is 34 and Allen is 36… Pierce and Allen have each averaged 78 games over the past 4 seasons, while KG has averaged 67… Pierce is already banged up and questionable for the season-opener… They have very little depth after trading Perkins last season, losing Jeff Green to a season-ending injury, and not re-signing Glen Davis… Brandon Bass will be a solid role player but the rest of their rotation after the Big 4 includes Jermaine O’Neal, Marquis Daniels, Keyon Dooling, Chris Wilcox and Sasha Pavlovic though they may sign Pietrus… The combination of age, lack of depth, and the condensed season will play a toll this season.

Consensus: Over 39.5 (-110)

Prediction: 41-21 (#4 seed in East)

New York Knicks

Last year: 42-40 (14-13 with Carmelo Anthony)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 40.5 (82-game equivalent of 50.5)

Upside: Tyson Chandler should make the defense significantly better… Their front-court of Chandler, Stoudemire and Anthony looks fantastic on paper… Anthony is one of the top 5 scorers in the league and Stoudemire has become a great mid-range shooter… Projected starting backcourt of Douglas and Fields can each shoot from long range and are adequate defenders.

Downside: Instead of Felton or Billups running the point, it’s going to be a combination of Toney Douglas and Baron Davis… There is very little frontcourt depth and Chandler and Stoudemire have historically been injury-prone… There may be some chemistry issues given the changes and lack of training camp.

Consensus: Under 40.5 (-110)

Prediction: 38-28 (#5 seed in East)

Indiana Pacers

Last year: 37-45 (32-50 and 36-46 in the 2 prior seasons)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 36 (82-game equivalent of 45.5)

Upside: They bring back the core of their team from last season, including Darren Collison, Danny Granger and Roy Hibbert, and they made some strong veteran additions in David West and George Hill… Second-year player Paul George could have a breakout season… The 6 players already mentioned plus Tyler Hansbrough and Dahntay Jones make for an excellent 8-man rotation that provides for depth and flexibility at all positions… They should have a set rotation this year rather than the unpredictability last season, when guys like Josh McRoberts, Mike Dunleavy and Brandon Rush played big roles occasionally… They were 20-18 once Frank Vogel took over as head coach last season (17-27 before that).

Downside: They’re a playoff team and will be better than last season but the risk is that this is a relatively high point total for a team that was 8 games under .500 last season.

Consensus: Under 37 (-110)

Prediction: 36-30 (#6 seed in East)

Atlanta Hawks

Last year: 44-38 (53-29 and 47-35 in the 2 prior seasons)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 34 (82-game equivalent of 42.5)

Upside: They bring back the same core of Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams and Al Horford from the past few seasons minus Jamal Crawford… A drop-off is expected from last season but it may be surprising to see a team that made it to the second round of the playoffs last season drop to .500 or below which is effectively what this over/under indicates.

Downside: Losing Crawford could be significant as he played 30 minutes per game and scored 14 points per game off the bench; replacing him with Tracy McGrady is a clear downgrade… Jeff Teague may not be ready to be a starting point guard for a full season despite a couple good playoff games… Didn’t do anything to get better and very little depth while their big 4 has managed to stay extremely healthy the past few seasons… Role players include McGrady, Zaza Pachulia, Vlad-Rad and Willie Green.

Consensus: Under 34 (even)

Prediction: 34-32 (#7 seed in East)

Philadelphia 76ers

Last year: 41-41 (27-55 the prior season and 41-41 the year before that)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 36 (82-game equivalent of 45.5)

Upside: They bring back essentially the same exact roster as last year which could be huge for chemistry… Iguodala had a down year for him last season, playing only 67 games and averaging only 14 points… There are some very young players with high upside that should definitely improve, including Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Lou Williams and Thaddeus Young… It’s a fairly deep team which should help them in the condensed season…

Downside: It’s a similar roster to 2009-2010 when they finished 27-55, so maybe last year was a fluke… The frontcourt is relatively weak, featuring Elton Brand, Spencer Hawes, Tony Battie and rookie Nikola Vucevic… Despite the solid collection of players there are no true stars like some of the other top teams in the East so it will prove difficult to surpass any of the top 5.

Consensus: Under 36 (-110)

Prediction: 32-34 (#8 seed in East)

Milwaukee Bucks

Last year: 35-47 (46-36 the year before that)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 33 (82-game equivalent of 41

Upside: They bring back their solid point guard (Jennings), solid center (Bogut) and solid coach (Skiles)… Jennings only played 63 games and Bogut 65 games last season and they should both improve as they are both very young and Bogut is another year removed from his bad injury… Their roster looks slightly better heading into this season by dumping Salmons and Maggette for Stephen Jackson and Mike Dunleavy, although S-Jax seems to have an issue with his back… Adding Beno Udrih as a solid backup point guard is an improvement as well.

Downside: It’s hard to imagine them being that much better than last season, especially if Jackson’s back is a real issue… Other teams improved more significantly than they have so reaching .500 could be a stretch.

Consensus: Under 33 (-110)

Prediction: 30-36 (9^th in the East)

Washington Wizards

Last year: 23-59 (no other relevant seasons)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 20 (82-game equivalent of 25.5)

Upside: John Wall is a very good young point guard entering his second season so we should expect substantial improvement, and we all know that a very good point guard goes a long way when it comes to winning in the NBA… There are several very young players such as JaVale McGee, Andray Blatche, Nick Young, Jordan Crawford and rookie Jan Vesely that can run, shoot, score, rebound and block shots… If a couple of these young players improve enough, this team could potentially fight for a playoff spot.

Downside: No veteran leadership whatsoever other than possibly Rashard Lewis… Didn’t add any major pieces in the offseason.

Consensus: OVER 20 (-130)

Prediction: 27-39 (10^th in East)

Toronto Raptors

Last year: 22-60 (no other relevant seasons)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 17 (82-game equivalent of 21.5)

Upside: There is definitely more talent on this roster than some of the other bottom-feeders in the East, starting with 22-year old DeMar DeRozan who averaged 20 points per game after the all-star break, and former #1 pick Andrea Bargnani who averaged 21 points per game over the course of the season…The point guard situation is sufficient to exceed this total with Jose Calderon and Jerryd Bayless…There are some decent supporting bodies in Amir Johnson, Ed Davis, Aaron Gray and James Johnson.

Downside: Didn’t add any major pieces to significantly improve from last year, as their first round pick isn’t expected to come to the NBA this season.

Consensus: OVER 17 (-110)

Prediction: 24-42 (11^th in East)

New Jersey Nets

Last year: 24-58 (4-8 with Deron Williams)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 25 (82-game equivalent of 31.5)

Upside: A full season of Deron Williams will help tremendously; despite the lack of talent around him, having a superstar point guard is huge in the NBA and will make everyone around him better…

Downside: With Brook Lopez out indefinitely, there really is no talent around Deron; certainly no one that can create their own shot; Deron will have to do it all by himself every night…His supporting cast features Anthony Morrow, Damion James, Shawne Williams, Kris Humphries, Johan Petro and Mehmet Okur… It’s not like this is a particularly good defensive team either… If Deron were to get injured, this would be by far the worst team in the league.

Consensus: UNDER 25 (-110)

Prediction: 21-45 (12^th in East)

Detroit Pistons

Last year: 30-52 (27-55 the year before that)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 24 (82-game equivalent of 30.5)

Upside: They dropped Hamilton and McGrady from last year’s team and added rookie Brandon Knight and get Jonas Jerebko back from injury who had a good rookie year 2 years ago…Greg Monroe showed flashes of being a good player towards the end of last season and should continue to get better.

Downside: When your best players are Rodney Stuckey and Greg Monroe, you’re probably not going to be very good… Brandon Knight could be good but too young to make a significant winning impact…The rest of the roster is subpar and features very little promise this season with Ben Gordon, Will Bynum, Austin Daye, Tayshaun Prince, Austin Daye, Charlie Villanueva and Jason Maxiell.

Consensus: UNDER 24 (-110)

Prediction: 21-45 (13^th in East)

Charlotte Bobcats

Last year: 34-48 (13-21 once they gave away Gerald Wallace)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 17 (82-game equivalent of 21.5)

Upside: There are some young pieces with D.J. Augustin, Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson, Tyrus Thomas and Bismack Biyombo, which gives this team a glimmer of hope…This is an extremely low total when there are teams equally as bad in the conference such as the Cavs, Nets, Raptors and Pistons.

Downside: These young pieces, along with Corey Maggette and Boris Diaw, pretty much sums up the entire rotation… I’m not sure who the best player on the team is, but whoever it is, it’s the worst best player in the league…2 seasons ago this team was in the playoffs with Raymond Felton (did not re-sign), Gerald Wallace (traded to Portland mid-season for nothing) and Stephen Jackson (traded to Milwaukee in 3-team deal in exchange for Maggette and Bismack).

Consensus: UNDER 17 (-110)

Prediction: 16-50 (14^th in East)

Cleveland Cavaliers

Last year: 19-63 (no other relevant seasons)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 17 (82-game equivalent of 21.5)

Upside: They’ll be better than last season partially by adding number one pick Kyrie Irving but also by getting Anderson Varejao back who only played 31 games last season (8-23 with him, 11-40 without him).

Downside: They’re not going to be good unless Irving is awesome right away which is highly unlikely, as their best players are 35-year old Antawn Jamison, 19-year old Irving, Varejao and newly acquired Omri Casspi.

Consensus: UNDER 17 (-110)

Prediction: 16-50 (15^th in East)

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Oklahoma City Thunder

Last year: 55-27 (50-32 the year before)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 47.5 (82-game equivalent of 59.5)

Upside: They bring everyone back and everyone should be better individually and collectively…Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden is probably the best top-3 in the league at this point outside of Miami…They are at least 2-deep at every position…They have size and depth up front with Ibaka, Perkins, Nick Collison, Nazr Mohammed and Cole Aldrich…Good coach in Scott Brooks.

Downside: Hard to think of any other than 48-18 is a high threshold in the West.

Consensus: OVER 47.5 (-110)

Prediction: 49-17 (#1 seed in West)

Los Angeles Clippers

Last year: 32-50 (Hornets were 46-36)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 41.5 (82-game equivalent of 51.5)

Upside: Team is absolutely loaded with a starting 5 of Chris Paul, Chauncey Billups, Caron Butler, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan and a second 5 of Mo Williams, Randy Foye, Ryan Gomes, Reggie Evans and Brian Cook…Should thrive in condensed season with their speed, depth and youth…Also have Eric Bledsoe as their 5^th guard…Great rebounders…Could be a great defensive team as well…Hornets won 46 games last year and this Clippers squad is MUCH more talented than the Okafor/Landry/Ariza/Bellineli combination.

Downside: Chemistry may be an issue early on…Billups has never played away from the ball before…Don’t have great shooters, but Mo Williams, Butler and Billups are solid…Questionable coaching with Vinny Del Negro.

Consensus: OVER 41.5 (-120)

Prediction: 47-19 (#2 seed in West)

Dallas Mavericks

Last year: 57-25 (Over 50 wins in 11 consecutive seasons dating back to the 2000-2001 season, going 55-27, 50-32, 51-31, 67-15, 60-22, 58-24, 52-30, 60-22, 57-25, and 53-29)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 42.5 (82-game equivalent of 52.5)

Upside: Slightly different roster but Dirk Nowitzki is back and the history speaks for itself…Still loaded with veteran talent with Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Lamar Odom, Vince Carter, Brendan Haywood…Roddy Beaubois is healthy and ready to make an impact especially in case one of the older guards needs to rest…Excellent coach in Rick Carlisle.

Downside: Significant turnover from last year including losing Tyson Chandler, J.J. Barea, DeShawn Stevenson and Caron Butler; the acquisitions of Lamar Odom, Vince Carter and Delonte West do not make up for those losses…Frontcourt depth will undoubtedly be an issue without Chandler…Not nearly as strong defensively as last year without Chandler, Butler and Stevenson…Jason Kidd will be 39 years old in March.

Consensus: OVER 42.5 (-110)

Prediction: 43-23 (#3 seed in West)

Los Angeles Lakers

Last year: 57-25 (57-25, 65-17, 57-25 in the 3 years prior)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 40.5 (82-game equivalent of 50.5)

Upside: Kobe Bryant still one of the best players in the league…Bryant and Gasol one of the best 1-2 punches in the league…Bynum looks primed for a breakout season…As long as they have someone step up outside these Big 3, they should surpass this total.

Downside: Bryant is already having issues with his shooting wrist…Point guard situation is abysmal with Derek Fisher and Steve Blake…They undoubtedly got worse during the offseason by giving away Odom and getting nothing in return…The rest of the rotation outside the Big 3 looks like Fisher/Blake, the artist formerly known as Ron Artest, Matt Barnes, Jason Kapono, Josh McRoberts, Troy Murphy and Devin Ebanks; not sure who will step up in that group…They replaced Phil Jackson with Mike Brown…Bynum suspended for first 4 games of the season.

Consensus: OVER 40.5 (-105)

Prediction: 43-23 (#4 seed in West)

Portland Blazers

Last year: 48-34 (50-32 and 54-28 in the two years prior to last season)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 36.5 (82-game equivalent of 45.5)

Upside: Team should be better this year than last as they upgraded from Brandon Roy (only 47 games last season) to Jamal Crawford and upgraded from Andre Miller to Raymond Felton…Now also will have Gerald Wallace for a full season…Aldridge, Batum and Mathews should all continue to improve as well…Craig Smith was a good addition to the frontcourt depth.

Downside: Not a ton of depth, but there is flexibility as Aldrdige can move to center and Crawford can play the point…Marcus Camby might not have much left in the tank and the only guys behind him are Kurt Thomas and Craig Smith…Getting Greg Oden back healthy later on in the season will help in the playoffs…

Consensus: OVER 36.5 (-110)

Prediction: 42-24 (#5 seed in West)

Memphis Grizzlies

Last year: 46-36 (40-42 the prior season)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 37 (82-game equivalent of 46.5)

Upside: Brought the same core back from last year’s squad that nearly advanced to the Western Conference Finals…Rudy Gay only played in 54 games last season and missed the playoff run, and now he’s healthy…Deep young team that should do well during the condensed season.

Downside: Losing Darrell Arthur for the entire season will hurt more than most people think, he was a really a solid up-and-coming player…Losing Shane Battier to the Heat will obviously hurt defensively…Didn’t add anything via free agency, trades or the draft.

Consensus: OVER 38 (-110)

Prediction: 39-27 (#6 seed in West)

San Antonio Spurs

Last year: 61-21 (14 consecutive 50-win or lockout-equivalent seasons dating back to Year 1 of the Duncan/Popovich era, going 50-32, 54-28, 56-26, 58-24, 63-19, 59-23, 57-25, 60-22, 58-24, 58-24, 53-29, 37-13, 56-26)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 41 (82-game equivalent of 51.5)

Upside: Duncan, Ginobili, Parker and Popovich are all back…Relatively deep with a supporting cast of Richard Jefferson, DeJuan Blair, Matt Bonner, Tiago Splitter, Gary Neal, rookie Kawhi Leonard, T.J. Ford and rookie Cory Joseph…Gary Neal should be able to step into George Hill’s previous role.

Downside: Duncan is 35, Ginobili is 34 and Parker is 29…They got rid of their fourth best player George Hill for rookie Kawhi Leonard who likely won’t make a major impact…They showed their age in the playoffs against the Grizzlies last season and this could be a sign that the end is near…Supporting cast, while deep, not super-talented…Team may struggle in condensed season.

Consensus: UNDER 41 (-110)

Prediction: 37-29 (#7 seed in West)

Denver Nuggets

Last year: 50-32 (18-7 after trading Carmelo Anthony)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 37.5 (82-game equivalent of 46.5)

Upside: Despite all the turnover, they are still 2-deep at every position with Ty Lawson / Andre Miller, Arron Afflalo / Rudy Fernandez, Danilo Gallinari / Corey Brewer, Al Harrington / Kenneth Faried and Nene / Chris Andersen…Gallo looks poised to take his game to another level this season…

Downside: Tough team to project as there has been so much turnover both last season and during the offseason…They may not be able to repeat the second half of last season…Not a guarantee by any means that you finish in the top 8 in the West with Gallo, Lawson and Nene as your 3 best players…Somehow, losing Lawson, Chandler, J.R. Smith and K-Mart has to hurt.

Consensus: UNDER 38.5 (-110)

Prediction: 35-31 (#8 seed in West)

Houston Rockets

Last year: 43-49 (42-40 the season before)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 33.5 (82-game equivalent of 41.5)

Upside: A ton of depth, 2-or-3deep at every position which should help tremendously in the condensed season.

Downside: No stars, the top 12 guys are Luis Scola, Kevin Martin, Kyle Lowry, Chase Budinger, Courtney Lee, Terrence Williams, Sam Dalembert, Jordan Hill, Patrick Patterson, Marcus Morris, Goran Dragic and Jonny Flynn …Lacking in rebounding, size and defense with the departure of Chuck Hayes and last year’s mid-season trade of Shane Battier…Coaching change from Rick Adelman to Kevin McHale a significant downgrade.

Consensus: UNDER 33.5 (-110)

Prediction: 28-38 (9^th in West)

Phoenix Suns

Last year: 40-42 (no other relevant season)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 28.5 (82-game equivalent of 35.5)

Upside: Nash still looks like he can play, and not making the playoffs last season gave him even extra rest…They have shooters (Dudley, Frye, Shannon Brown) and decent big guys down low (Gortat, Robin Lopez, Markief Morris) to support him.

Downside: It’s really not the most talented roster and if the soon-to-be 38-year old Nash gets hurt, gets traded or slows down, this team is not going to finish 30-36…Even if Nash is great the ceiling is not very high.

Consensus: UNDER 28.5 (-110)

Prediction: 28-38 (10^th in West)

Utah Jazz

Last year: 39-43 (8-20 once they fired Jerry Sloan, 8-17 after trading Deron Williams)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 27 (82-game equivalent of 34.5)

Upside: There is plenty of talent in the frontcourt with Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors and rookie Enes Kanter…Devin Harris is an average point guard and there are some suitable wings in C.J. Miles, Gordon Hayward, Raja Bell, Josh Howard and rookie Alec Burks.

Downside: The performance with new coach Tyrone Corbin after trading away Deron Williams can’t be ignored…If Devin Harris gets injured, which he usually does, they are left with Earl Watson and Jamaal Tinsley which would make this team appear much worse.

Consensus: OVER 27 (-110)

Prediction: 27-39 (11^th in West)

Sacramento Kings

Last year: 24-58 (25-57 the season before)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 20.5 (82-game equivalent of 25.5)

Upside: A ton of talented players who can score and create their own shot, starting with second-year player DeMarcus Cousins in the middle who should improve tremendously from his rookie season; other talented players include Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton, John Salmons and rookie Jimmer Fredette in the backcourt along with J.J. Hickson, Jason Thompson, Cousins and Hayes up front…Adding Hayes as a defensive/rebounding specialist was a great signing if he is healthy.

Downside: Not enough balls to go around as almost every single player on this roster is a shot-needy player…Still very young and immature group and not much of a veteran presence whatsoever.

Consensus: OVER 20.5 (-110)

Prediction: 26-40 (12^th in West)

Golden State Warriors

Last year: 36-46 (26-56 the season before)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 29.5 (82-game equivalent of 36.5)

Upside: They bring back the same squad as last year that improved 10 games from the year before which features an exciting backcourt duo of Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry.

Downside: By not adding anything in the offseason they now appear to be one of the least talented teams in the conference and are extremely weak defensively and in the frontcourt; their big-man rotation features David Lee, Andris Biedrins, Ekpe Udoh and Kwame Brown…Mark Jackson is the new head coach and he has never coached a game in his life even as an assistant.

Consensus: UNDER 29.5 (-120)

Prediction: 23-43 (13 in West)

New Orleans Hornets

Last year: 46-36 (37-45 the season before)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 25.5 (82-game equivalent of 31.5)

Upside: Despite losing Paul, the roster doesn’t look that awful, with a projected starting lineup of Jarrett Jack, Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Emeka Okafor and Chris Kaman with Carl Landry as the 6^th man…The team may be out to prove something similar to the Nuggets last season after they traded Anthony.

Downside: Point guard play will obviously be an issue as Jack is a bottom-tier starting point guard…If Gordon gets injured, this suddenly looks like the worst team in the West hands down…Kaman is not likely to stay healthy either.

Consensus: UNDER 25.5 (-115)

Prediction: 23-43 (14^th in West)

Minnesota Timberwolves

Last year: 17-65 (15-67 the season before)

2011-2012 Over/Under: 24.5 (82-game equivalent of 30.5)

Upside: Replacing Kurt Rambis with Rick Adelman is a great way to improve…There is definitely talent on the roster with Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, rookie Derrick Williams, second-year player Wesley Johnson, and guards Ricky Rubio, J.J. Barea and Luke Ridnour…Rubio and Barea could be an exciting backcourt combination to watch..

Downside: It’s an extremely weak team defensively at all positions…Questionable whether their 3 best players can play together, considering they all play the same position…Only centers on the roster are Darko Milicic and Brad Miller.

Consensus: UNDER 24.5 (-105)

Prediction: 22-44 (15^th in West)

NBA Playoffs

First Round – Eastern Conference

Heat over 76ers

Bulls over Hawks

Magic over Pacers

Knicks over Celtics

First Round – Western Conference

Thunder over Nuggets

Clippers over Spurs

Mavericks over Grizzlies

Lakers over Blazers

Second Round – Eastern Conference

Heat over Knicks

Bulls over Magic

Second Round – Western Conference

Thunder over Lakers

Clippers over Mavericks

Conference Finals

Heat over Bulls

Thunder over Clippers

NBA Finals

Heat over Thunder

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Chris Paul
4. Derrick Rose
5. Dwight Howard

Rookie of the Year

1. Kyrie Irving
2. Kemba Walker
3. Derrick Williams
4. Ricky Rubio
5. Kenneth Faried

Leading Scorers

1. Carmelo Anthony
2. LeBron James
3. Kevin Durant
4. Dwyane Wade
5. Kobe Bryant

Leading Rebounders

1. Dwight Howard
2. Kevin Love
3. Blake Griffin
4. Tyson Chandler
5. Joakim Noah

Leading Assists

1. Chris Paul
2. Rajon Rondo
3. Deron Williams
4. Steve Nash
5. John Wall

For the 2011 season, all odds are as of August 29, 2011. Here are my best bets:

• New England – Over 11.5 (-110)
• Miami – Under 7.5 (-130)
• Pittsburgh – Over 10.5 (-130)
• Cleveland – Under 7 (-110)
• Jacksonville – Under 6.5 (-110)
• Oakland – Under 6.5 (-130)
• New Orleans – Over 10 (-150)
• Tampa Bay – Under 8 (-125)

Write-ups for all 32 teams follow.

AFC East

1. 1.       New England – Over 11.5 (-110) **BEST BET**

History

The Patriots were dominant last year, finishing 14-2, scoring over 30 11 times, winning by double digits 9 times and winning by 20+ 7 times. They have won at least 10 games in 8 consecutive seasons, including at least 14 in 4 of the last 8.

Offense

They bring back all their main components and added some new toys in Chad Ochocinco and rookie running backs Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley.

Defense

The defense is not elite but there is plenty of talent with their best players Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung all returning. Plus, they’ll get back Leigh Bodden who missed all of last season, and they added Albert Haynesworth, Shaun Ellis and Andre Carter to the defensive line.

Schedule

In addition to the 6 division games, they play the weak AFC West (vs. SD, vs. KC, @ DEN, @ OAK), the NFC East (vs. DAL, vs. NYG, @ PHI, @ WAS) and vs. IND and @ PIT.  They should start 6-0 (@ MIA, vs. SD, @ BUF, @ OAK, vs. NYJ, vs. DAL) and then they have the bye week to prepare for their road game at Pittsburgh.

Overall

New England projects to be favored in every game this season with the possible exceptions of road games at Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Given that they’ve won 12+ games in 5 of the past 8 years, and their team is as loaded as ever, this is an easy bet.

Prediction: 14-2

1. 2.       New York Jets – Over 10 (-120)

History

The Jets won 11 games last season and 9 games in 2009 while reaching the AFC championship game in each season. Other than the 45-3 blowout at the hands of the Patriots on Monday Night Football, all of the Jets losses were very winnable games, losing by 1, 4, 4 and 9. The same thing happened in 2009 when 6 of their 7 losses were very winnable.

Offense

Mark Sanchez should continue to improve in his third season, they have a very good offensive line and rushing attack plus added a new red-zone target in Plaxico Burress to play alongside star receiver Santonio Holmes.

Defense

Their defense should be even better this season as they bring back essentially the same unit as last season, plus they drafted two defensive linemen with their first two draft picks.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the weak AFC West (vs. SD, vs. KC, @ DEN, @ OAK), the NFC East (vs. DAL, vs. NYG, @ PHI, @ WAS) and vs. JAC and @ BAL. 

Overall

Given their elite defense, improving offense, good coaching and continuity from last season, it is more likely that the Jets win 11 or more than 9 or less. However, with 2 games against the Patriots, they may only finish 3-3 in the division. Road games at Philadelphia and Baltimore will also prove difficult. The schedule may make it difficult for the Jets to do better than 11 wins, but good teams usually find ways to win games even against good teams. The Jets are a good team.

Prediction: 10-6

1. 3.       Buffalo – Under 5.5 (+115)

History

The Bills finished 4-12 last season after winning 6 the year before and 7 in each of the three years prior. Despite their 4-12 record, the Bills were a very tough out for most of the year, particularly in their 3 overtime losses at Baltimore, at Kansas City and vs. the Steelers (the Stevie Johnson drop game). They also had a 3-point defeat at the hands of the Bears in regulation which could have gone either way. However, they did have 5 losses by 20 or more.

Offense

The Bills have one of the least talented offenses in the league, with a bottom-10 quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick), a bottom-10 receiving corps, and an unimpressive offensive line. However, they do bring just about everyone back with the minor exception of Lee Evans. They did add Brad Smith who should provide some flexibility in running the wildcat and will help in special teams.

Defense

Their defense also appears to be short on talent, and they lost two of their better players in Paul Posluszny and Donte Whitner. They did draft potential stud defensive lineman Marcell Dareus with the third overall pick.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC West (vs. DEN, vs. OAK, @ SD, @ KC), the NFC East (vs. PHI, vs. WAS, @ DAL, @ NYG) and vs. TEN and @ CIN. 

Overall

There is not a lot of talent on this roster and they will likely be out of it by Thanksgiving after 3 consecutive road games at Dallas, Miami and the Jets in weeks 10-12. However, I would proceed with caution given their continuity, relatively easy schedule and potential chip on their shoulder after several close losses last season. At the end of the day, the lack of talent will offset these intangibles and the Bills will win 5 or less.

Prediction: 5-11

1. 4.       Miami – Under 7.5 (-130) **BEST BET**

History

The Dolphins were 7-9 last season and they were fortunate to win at Minnesota (Week 2 – Favre threw 3 interceptions and AP was stopped at the goal line on the last play), at Green Bay (Week 6 – Rodgers’ first game back from a concussion, Clay Mathews did not play) and Week 8 at Cincinnati (Carson Palmer threw an interception for a touchdown). The year before, in 2009, they also finished 7-9, but their victories were by margins of 4, 5, 2, 7, 1, 4, and 28 (vs. Buffalo). In 2008, they won 11 games against the league’s easiest schedule that year, which included several close victories against bad teams. The year before that, they were 1-15.

Offense

They bring back Chad Henne as the starter despite openly trying to replace him during the offseason. The fans even booed him at training camp. This probably won’t end well. The guy that may replace him during the season, Matt Moore, is even worse. There is some talent on offense, including all-pro left tackle Jake Long, wide receiver Brandon Marshall, and running backs Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush.

Defense

They have a pretty strong defense led by nose tackle Paul Soliai, linebackers Cameron Wake and Karlos Dansby, safety Yeremiah Bell, and a very strong cornerback tandem of Vontae Davis and Sean Smith.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC West (vs. DEN, vs. OAK, @ SD, @ KC), the NFC East (vs. PHI, vs. WAS, @ DAL, @ NYG) and vs. HOU and @ CLE. 

Overall

The Dolphins will likely struggle out of the gate (vs. NE, vs. HOU, @ CLE, @ SD) and at best stand at 1-3 before their bye week. 3 of their next 4 after the bye week include road games at NYJ, NYG, and KC. Despite some easier games later on, they will most likely be out of it by mid-November, Chad Henne will be benched, and the media will question Tony Sparano’s job security. Even if they win the games they’re supposed to win, they have a brutal last 4 vs. PHI, @ BUF, @ NE and vs. NYJ. They have a good defense and a couple of talented players on offense, but it would be surprising to see them win 8 games this year considering the question marks on offense and the tough schedule out of the gate with the lame-duck head coach.

Prediction: 5-11

AFC North

1. 1.       Pittsburgh – Over 10.5 (-130) **BEST BET**

History

The Steelers won 12 games last year. The year before, they won 9 games (Troy Polamalu missed 11 games) and their 7 losses were by 3, 3, 6, 3, 3, 3 and 7. In 2008, they won 12 games.

Offense

The Steelers feature an elite quarterback and solid young receivers who should be better this year than last year (other than Hines Ward). Their offensive line is still below average, but center Maurkice Pouncey is a stud, and they get right tackle Willie Colon back after he missed all of 2010 with a torn Achilles. The bottom line is that nothing has changed offensively for the Steelers other than the return of Colon.

Defense

The Steelers still have one of the best defenses in the league, if not the best. Like the offense, not much has changed. The front seven is absolutely loaded, and their secondary will get by as long as Polamalu can stay on the field.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC South (vs. TEN, vs. JAC, @ IND, @ HOU), the NFC West (vs. STL, vs. SEA, @ SF, @ ARI) and vs. NE and @ KC. They figure to be favorites in all but 2 or maybe 3 games (@ IND, @ BAL, vs. NE).  They have a difficult start to the season, with 3 of their first 4 games on the road at Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Houston. But that may be a blessing in disguise as Pittsburgh’s continuity may benefit them early on in the season. They should be heavy favorites in each of their final 8 games – @ CIN, @ KC, vs. CIN, vs. CLE, @ SF, vs. STL, @ CLE. I’ve never seen such an easy slate of games.

Overall

There have been at least 4 teams to win at least 12 games in every season over the last 8 years. When you combine the fact that the defending AFC Champions return just about everyone, including their strong coaching staff, elite defense and elite quarterback, with the super-easy schedule, the Steelers figure to be one of those 4 teams.

Prediction: 13-3

1. 2.       Baltimore – Over 10 (-110)

History

The Ravens won 12 games last year, 9 the year before, and 11 the year before that. They could have won all 4 of their losses – Week 2 (@ CIN by 5), Week 6 @ NE (by 3 in OT), Week 10 (@ ATL by 5) and Week 13 (vs. PIT by 3). Even in 2009, of their 7 losses, they should have won 5. They could have easily finished with at least 13 wins in each of the past 2 seasons.

Offense

They actually lost a lot of valuable players on offense, including Todd Heap, Derrick Mason, Jared Gaither, Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain. They upgraded at fullback from McClain to Vonta Leach, and they hope the loss of McGahee won’t be as significant once they signed Ricky Williams. Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and the offensive line are all good, but none are elite, and the receiving group is below average. Overall, the offense may be closer to the middle of the pack this year, especially considering some of the turnover.

Defense

Their defense is not as good as Pittsburgh’s, but it still figures to again be one of the best in the league, featuring studs Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs and Jarret Johnson; and the ageless Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC South (vs. IND, vs. HOU, @ JAC, @ TEN), the NFC West (vs. ARI, vs. SF, @ STL, @ SEA) and vs. NYJ and @ SD. Similar to the Steelers, they have an easy schedule since they play the NFC West. However, they have the more difficult AFC West game at San Diego compared to the Steelers who are at Kansas City.

Overall

While the Ravens may have lost some offensive talent from last year and may be getting old defensively, that will be more than offset by the super-easy schedule, the expected improvement from Flacco, and the fact that they appear to have been unlucky in each of the past 2 seasons, suggesting they could have been coming off back-to-back 13-win seasons. The turnover on offense is what’s holding me back here.

Prediction: 10-6

1. 3.       Cleveland – Under 7 (-110) **BEST BET**

History

Cleveland won 5 games last year, 5 in 2009 and 4 in 2008. They flukishly won 10 games in 2007 (the Derek Anderson season) and won 6 or less in each of the 4 years prior dating back to 2003. Of Cleveland’s 5 wins last year, 3 of them were by 3 or less and 1 against the Saints was mainly due to 4 Drew Brees interceptions, 2 of which were returned for touchdowns. They lost their last 4 of last season, including losses to Buffalo and Cincinnati and getting pounded by the Steelers. In 2009, they started 1-11 before winning their last 4 in meaningless fashion.

Offense

They bring back essentially the same offense as last year, which isn’t a good thing as they feature one of the worst receiving corps, an average (at best) offensive line, a young and inconsistent quarterback (Colt McCoy) and an over-worked running back (Peyton Hillis) who slowed down considerably at the end of last season and could suffer from the Madden jinx this year.

Defense

The Browns lost their defensive coordinator (Rob Ryan) and are switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 in a shortened offseason. They also don’t have a very good collection of talent on defense other than second-year cornerback Joe Haden.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC South (vs. TEN, vs. JAC, @ IND, @ HOU), the NFC West (vs. STL, vs. SEA, @ SF, @ ARI) and vs. MIA and @ OAK. Other than the 4 games against BAL and PIT and road games at IND and HOU, it’s not an overly difficult schedule.

Overall

The talent suggests 6 or less wins while the schedule suggests 7 or more wins. In order to get to 7, they’ll have to start 6-5 or better, as their final 5 games are brutal and they would be fortunate to win 1 of them (vs. BAL, @ PIT, @ ARI, @ BAL, vs. PIT). Getting off to a quick start may prove difficult however given their lack of overall talent, history of losing and significant high-level changes (new head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, defensive scheme), I would say the under is the way to go.

Prediction: 6-10

1. 4.       Cincinnati – Under 5.5 (-155)

History

The Bengals won 4 games last year, 10 the year before, and 4 the year before that. Only 4 of their losses last year were by more than 8 points, and several of their losses came as a result of Carson Palmer throwing a game-clinching interception returned for a touchdown. On the other hand, 2 of their 4 wins were by 5 or less and could have gone either way. In 2009, despite winning 10 games, 9 of those wins were by 10 points or less and they had one of the easiest schedules that year.

Offense

On paper, their starting lineup includes a rookie quarterback drafted in the 2^nd round, a below average running back in Cedric Benson and a group of no-name receivers. They also have a new offensive coordinator. However, the entire offensive line returns, and they may be motivated to block for someone other than Carson Palmer. Plus, the loss of Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco removes the constant distractions and results in the opportunity to develop some of their young and talented receivers (A.J. Green, Jermaine Gresham, Jordan Shipley, Jerome Simpson).

Defense

Despite losing star cornerback Jonathan Joseph to Houston, they still feature one of the best cornerback tandems with Leon Hall and Nate Clements. They also have a really solid group of linebackers with Rey Maualuga, Keith Rivers and the newly signed Manny Lawson. The defensive line is also solid.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC South (vs. IND, vs. HOU, @ JAC, @ TEN), the NFC West (vs. ARI, vs. SF, @ STL, @ SEA) and vs. BUF and @ DEN. There are plenty of winnable games on the schedule with matchups against the NFC West, vs. BUF, vs. JAC, @ DEN, @ TEN and 2 against CLE.

Overall

There is the potential for everything to go right, given the easy schedule, solid defense, solid offensive line and history of teams exceeding expectations after dropping 6+ wins from the prior year (Bengals went from 10 to 4. Half go on to increase their win total by at least 4 the following year). It is entirely possible that losing Carson Palmer, Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco is a blessing in disguise. However, the offense should struggle mightily to score points, and the defense isn’t good enough to single-handedly beat many of the teams on the schedule. It will almost certainly be another down year in Cincinnati.

Prediction: 5-11

AFC South

1. 1.       Indianapolis – Over 9.5 (-155) **Note** – Line currently OFF due to Peyton Manning’s uncertain status

History

The Colts won 10 games last year, down from 14 the year before. Prior to last season, Indianapolis had won at least 12 games in 7 consecutive seasons, when they went 89-23 (79.4%) including 5 losses in meaningless games in Weeks 16 and 17. Four of their losses last year were by 3 points or less and they had significant injuries on offense throughout the season.

Offense

As long as Peyton Manning is on the field, this will easily be one of the top 5 offenses again, as they get Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Joseph Addai back from injuries, and they drafted 2 offensive linemen in the first 2 rounds of the draft.

Defense

The defense will be bad again, especially against the run, but their defensive line could be really solid as they bring back Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis at defensive end, and they rolled the dice in free agency on Jamaal Anderson and Tommie Harris.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC North (vs. PIT, vs. CLE, @ CIN, @ BAL), the NFC South (vs. ATL, vs. CAR, @ NO, @ TB) and vs. KC and @ NE.

Overall

The Colts have won at least 10 games in 9 consecutive seasons, and the only reason they won’t do it again this year is if Peyton Manning misses games. Remember, they should have gone 16-0 two years ago if they didn’t rest their starters in the final 2 weeks.

Prediction: 11-5

1. 2.       Houston – Over 9 (-170)

History

The Texans fell to 6-10 last year after winning 9 the previous season. They fell apart after starting 4-2, including close losses in Jacksonville (the hail mary game), at the Jets (blew the game in the fourth quarter), an overtime loss vs. Baltimore, and a 1-point loss at Denver (blew a 13-point lead vs. Tim Tebow).

Offense

This is and will continue to be one of the best offenses in the league. They lost star fullback Vonta Leach, but they bring back their entire offensive line and all skill positions, including Owen Daniels who missed most of last season with injuries. The continuity on offense should be huge, especially given the shortened offseason.

Defense

Houston’s secondary has been miserable for years, but they signed star cornerback Jonathan Joseph and safety Danieal Manning, plus 2010 first round pick Kareem Jackson is in his second season and should be much improved as the second cornerback, rather than the number one as he was as a rookie. They bring back solid players in Mario Williams, Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans (missed most of last season), plus they spent all of their early draft picks on defense, including promising first round defensive end J.J. Watt. Finally, they bring in a proven defensive coordinator in Wade Philips. Bottom line is that this defense figures to be much improved.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC North (vs. PIT, vs. CLE, @ CIN, @ BAL), the NFC South (vs. ATL, vs. CAR, @ NO, @ TB) and vs. OAK and @ MIA. They have the same schedule as the Colts, but rather than vs. KC and @ NE, the Texans are vs. OAK and @ MIA. The schedule appears rather difficult to start the season, with 4 of their first 6 games vs. IND, @ NO, vs. PIT and @ BAL.

Overall

With all the talent and continuity on offense, and all the improvements made on defense, there are no excuses this year. They should win more than half their games, but I wouldn’t go crazy here as the price is very high.

Prediction: 10-6

1. 3.       Tennessee – Under 6.5 (even)

History

The Titans started 5-2 last year before falling apart and lost 8 of their last 9. They finished 6-10 after going 8-8 last year and 13-3 in 2009.

Offense

Chris Johnson is arguably the best running back in the league and they bring back their entire offensive line, so there is some hope, even though the receivers are mediocre, and they’ll be led by an over-the-hill quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck.

Defense

The Titans could have one of the worst defenses in the league this year. They weren’t great last year, and they lost their 2 best players in Jason Babin and Stephen Tulloch.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC North (vs. CIN, vs. BAL, @ PIT, @ CLE), the NFC South (vs. NO, vs. TB, @ ATL, @ CAR) and vs. DEN and @ BUF.

Overall

They lost their head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and 2 best defensive players. They brought in an old bottom-tier quarterback and their best player is unhappy with his contract situation. They have one of the worst defenses in the league in terms of talent. They are just keeping the seat warm for Jake Locker at this point.

Prediction: 5-11

1. 4.       Jacksonville – Under 6.5 (-110) **BEST BET**

History

The Jags won 8 games last year after winning 7 the year before and 5 in 2009. Of their 8 wins last year, 4 of them could be considered lucky, especially vs. IND (Week 4 – made 59-yard field goal as time expired), vs. HOU (Week 10 – hail mary game), vs. CLE (Week 11 – game-winning drive with 1 minute left in ugly game) and vs. OAK (Week 14 – could have gone either way). 5 of their 8 losses, meanwhile, were by 17 or more.

Offense

They have one of the worst starting quarterbacks (David Garrard) and receiving corps (Mike Thomas and Jason Hill?). Their best player, Maurice Jones-Drew, is coming off of knee surgery.

Defense

The defense is probably below average, but they should be better this season after adding Paul Posluszny, Dawan Landry, Matt Roth and Clint Session in the offseason.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC North (vs. CIN, vs. BAL, @ PIT, @ CLE), the NFC South (vs. NO, vs. TB, @ ATL, @ CAR) and vs. SD and @ NYJ. They screwed themselves by finishing second in the division last year, resulting in extremely difficult flex games against the Chargers and Jets.

Overall

Talent-wise, the Jags are a 4^th place caliber team going up against a 1^st place caliber schedule. They were lucky to win 8 games last year and they will fall back to the 5-win range in 2011. Rookie Blaine Gabbert will make a few starts as soon as things start going wrong, which will be at the latest Week 11 after their 5-game stretch @ PIT, vs. BAL, @ HOU, @ IND, @ CLE. This will most likely be Jack Del Rio’s last season. I don’t see how they win 7 games.

Prediction: 4-12

AFC West

1. 1.       San Diego – Over 10 (-135)

History

The Chargers went 9-7 last season after finishing 13-3 the year before. They should have easily won at least 13 games last season if not for horrible special teams play and some bad luck. Here is a snapshot of their 7 losses:

• Week 1 – Lost by 7 at KC on MNF in crazy weather, gave up a 94-yard kickoff return and a 60-yard Jamaal Charles run, yet they still could have tied it in last minute but got stuffed at the goal line.
• Week 3 – Lost by 7 at SEA because of two Leon Washington kickoff returns (99 and 101 yards)
• Week 5 – Lost by 8 at OAK because they gave up a 64-yard fumble return TD and a blocked punt TD
• Week 6 – Lost by 3 at STL
• Week 7 – Lost by 3 vs. NE
• Week 13 – Lost by 15 vs. OAK partly because of consecutive blocked punts in the first quarter that led to touchdowns
• Week 16 – Lost by 14 at CIN in windy snow conditions

Also note that their 9 wins were by an average of 20 points per game. Also note that they were without Vincent Jackson for 12 games, Antonio Gates for 6 games and Marcus McNeil for 5 games. Also note that San Diego was number 1 in yards allowed last season and they spent their first 3 draft picks on defense plus added Bob Sanders.

Offense

They have a top-6 quarterback in Philip Rivers and one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Last year they were without Vincent Jackson for 12 games, Antonio Gates for 6 games and Marcus McNeil for 5 games.

Defense

The Chargers were number 1 in yards allowed last season and they spent their first 3 draft picks on defense plus added Bob Sanders.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (vs. BUF, vs. MIA, @ NE, @ NYJ), the NFC North (vs. GB, vs. MIN, @ DET, @ CHI), and vs. BAL and @ JAC. There are definitely some difficult games on the schedule (particularly @ NE, @ NYJ, vs. GB, @ CHI, @ KC, vs. BAL), but you have to figure a good team with a great quarterback will manage to win a couple of those games. Plus the rest of their schedule looks to be a cakewalk, at least on paper (vs. BUF, vs. MIA, vs. KC, vs. MIN, two against OAK, 2 against DEN, and @ JAC, @ DET).

Overall

One of the best teams in the league who won 13 games in 2009 and suffered tons of bad luck and some injuries in 2010 yet still managed to win 9 games. They should improve their win total this year, meaning they’ll win at least 10. I also say they finally get off to a good start this year. There’s a much better chance they win 11 or more in this division than 9 or less.

Prediction: 11-5

1. 2.       Denver – Over 6 (-135)

History

The Broncos were a miserable 4-12 last season after finishing 8-8 the season before. They started 6-0 in 2009 so they have lost 20 of their last 26 games.

Offense

Despite the offseason quarterback controversy, Kyle Orton is probably the 2^nd best quarterback in the division, and the offense has some talent that also added Willis McGahee to help in the running game.

Defense

There is reason for optimism as they get their best defensive player back in Elvis Dumervil, they added Von Miller in the draft, signed defensive linemen Ty Warren and Brodrick Bunkley, and they added a very good coach in John Fox.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (vs. NE, vs. NYJ, @ MIA, @ BUF), the NFC North (vs. CHI, vs. DET, @ GB, @ MIN) and vs. CIN and @ TEN. They could get off to a hot start with their MNF game vs. OAK followed by a home game vs. CIN and then on the road @ TEN. With these 3 games, plus home games later in the year vs. DET, CHI and KC, and some winnable road games at BUF, MIA and OAK, they should be able to squeeze out 6 wins.

Overall

They play in a weak division, have a historically strong home field advantage, and get to take advantage of a last place schedule. There is enough talent to win at least 6 games. John Fox should have them motivated to do so.

Prediction: 8-8

1. 3.       Kansas City – Under 7.5 (+105)

History

The Chiefs won 10 games last year after winning 10 games combined in the three years prior. Check out these statistics:

• In the 32-team era (since 2002), there have been 14 teams that have increased their win total by 6 games or more from the previous season. Of those 14 teams, 10 of them decreased their win total by at least 3 the following season, and 7 of them decreased by at least 4.
• In the 32-team era, in 7 out of 8 seasons, there have been at least 2 teams to win 10+ games one year and then 5 or less the following year. Last year, it was the Bengals and Cardinals (10 wins each in 2009, 4 and 5 wins in 2010, respectively).
• Kansas City increased its win total from 4 (2009) to 10 (2010).

Of their 10 wins, Kansas City went 4-0 against the NFC West and had lucky/close wins vs. SD (Week 1 – see Chargers section above), @ CLE (Week 2 – won by 2 on a late pick-6 against Delhomme) and vs. BUF (Week 8, won by 3 in OT). In Week 17, they played their starters and got blown out at home vs. Oakland, before getting blown out at home in the playoffs against Baltimore. Week 17 was also right after offensive coordinator Charlie Weis would be going back to the college game.

Offense

They have lots of speed and talent on offense (Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster, Steve Breaston) but Matt Cassel is a bottom-10 starting quarterback despite his remarkable numbers last season. Losing Charlie Weis will hurt.

Defense

They have some great young players on defense (Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Brandon Flowers, Glenn Dorsey) but they did lose veteran Mike Vrabel this offseason.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (vs. BUF, vs. MIA, @ NE, @ NYJ), the NFC North (vs. GB, vs. MIN, @ DET, @ CHI), and vs. PIT and @ IND.

Overall

The Chiefs are definitely better now than they were two years ago, but a big reason why they got to 10 wins last season was luck and a ridiculously easy schedule and some luck. In 2011, rather than a last place schedule, they’ll have a first place schedule, and rather than the easy NFC West they have the tough NFC North. Kansas City will be the classic ‘better than last year but worse record’ team in 2011. When you look at their overall schedule, it’s going to be difficult for them to win 8 games. I say they go 3-3 in their division, 2-2 vs. the AFC East, 2-2 vs. the NFC North and 0-2 in their flex games. Look at this 5-week stretch starting Week 11: @ NE (MNF), vs. PIT, @ CHI, @ NYJ, vs. GB. Brutal.

Prediction: 7-9

1. 4.       Oakland – Under 6.5 (-130) **BEST BET**

History

The Raiders finished 8-8 last season after a remarkable 7 consecutive seasons with 5 or less wins. They somehow managed to go 6-0 in the division, which included an OT win against Kansas City and two wins over San Diego which featured tons of Chargers mistakes. To be fair, Oakland should have won Week 3 at Arizona but Janikowski missed a 32-yard field goal at the buzzer. Don’t forget that in 2009, their 5 wins were by a total of 14 points, while their 11 losses were by a total of 196 points.

Offense

The Raiders have one of the worst offenses in the league, led by a bottom-10 quarterback (Jason Campbell), a bad offensive line that lost Robert Gallery and a bottom-5 receiving corps. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush form a solid running back tandem, but that doesn’t make up for the rest of their deficiencies offensively.

Defense

They have talent on defense, but the loss of Asomugha is huge. Plus, last year several of their players were in a contract year (Seymour, Huff, Wimbley, Routt) and they all got paid very nice sums of money, which could hurt their motivation in 2011.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (vs. NE, vs. NYJ, @ BUF, @ MIA), the NFC North (vs. CHI, vs. DET, @ GB, @ MIN) and vs. CLE and @ HOU. They kick off the season on the road at Denver on MNF in the 10:15 PM game, followed by a Week 2 cross-country road trip to Buffalo. Two below average teams, but it’s still a very difficult way to kick off the season for the Raiders, as they’ll be underdogs in each. They follow those 2 road games with home games against the Jets and the Patriots, then at Houston.

Overall

In 2011, the Raiders will play the tough NFC North rather than the weak NFC West. They will also be playing without their best defensive player (Nnamdi Asomugha) and their second best offensive player (Zach Miller) from 2010. Furthermore, they have a new head coach and new defensive coordinator this season. Also considering their schedule and the way they start out the season, I think it is much more likely they win 6 or less than 7 or more.

Prediction: 4-12

NFC East

1. 1.       Philadelphia – Over 10.5 (-150)

History

The Eagles won 10 games last year and 11 the year before. Their starters did not play in the Week 17 loss vs. Dallas, but they had no business winning their Week 15 win at the Giants (28 points in the 4^th quarter, the DeSean Jackson game). They were 8-3 in games where Vick started, and one of those losses (Week 4 vs. WAS) he got hurt and didn’t finish.

Offense

There’s no denying the talent and speed, and the offensive line should be strong as well with the addition of Ryan Harris at right tackle. The biggest question mark is the health of Jeremy Maclin, but Jason Avant should be serviceable if Maclin were to miss extended time. Their skill players are all extremely vulnerable to injury, particularly Vick, Jackson, Maclin and LeSean McCoy.

Defense

The secondary is obviously elite with Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie at cornerback; but the defensive line is loaded with talent as well, with Cullen Jenkins, Trent Cole, Jason Babin and Anthony Hargrove. The linebackers appear weak, however.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (vs. NE, vs. NYJ, @ BUF, @ MIA), the NFC West (vs. SF, vs. ARI, @ STL, @ SEA) and vs. CHI and @ ATL. They finished in first place but have an easier schedule than the second-place Giants, who face the Packers and Saints, whereas the Eagles face the Bears and Falcons. With several new players and a short offseason, the Eagles may struggle early with their first 2 games @ STL and @ ATL, and 4 of their first 6 games on the road.

Overall

The Eagles are obviously one of the most talented teams in football on paper, and there are usually around 7 teams that win 11 or more games in a given season. I think the Eagles will win 11 but I am concerned that all these new pieces might not gel, that Vick won’t be as good as last year, and that their offensive skill players can’t stay healthy. I am also concerned about how they react to such high expectations.

Prediction: 11-5

1. 2.       Dallas – Over 9 (even)

History

The Cowboys won 6 games after winning 11 the year before. Prior to last season’s down year, they had won at least 9 games in 5 straight seasons. Despite winning just 6 games last year, they could have easily won several more games if not for bone-headed plays, bad interceptions, etc. 8 of their 10 losses were by 7 points or less. Their 2 blowout losses were Wade Phillips’ last 2 games as head coach and Jon Kitna’s 2^nd and 3^rd starts.

Offense

They have one of the best offenses in the NFL with a top-10 quarterback and arguably the best group of receivers including Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. Their offensive line has been shaky the past couple years and expects to start 2 rookies.

Defense

The defense returns basically the same unit, which struggles mightily against the pass and overall is an average unit. They did bring in Rob Ryan as the new defensive coordinator so there is hope on this side of the ball.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (@ NE, @ NYJ, vs. BUF, vs. MIA), the NFC West (vs. STL, vs. SEA, @ ARI, @ SF) and vs. DET and @ TB.

Overall

It’s hard to imagine the Cowboys not winning at least 9 games this year, but with the challenging division plus road games at New England and the Jets, it’s not a sure thing. However, I do think it’s more likely they win 10 or more than 8 or less.

Prediction: 10-6

1. 3.       New York Giants – Over 9 (even)

History

The Giants won 10 games last year and 8 the year before. In the past 4 seasons, they have won at least 10 games three times and won a Super Bowl. The year they went 8-8 they actually started 5-0 but then fell apart due to a tremendous amount of injuries on defense. Other than that stretch in 2009, this has consistently been one of the best teams in football. They won a legitimate 10 games last year; the only game that could have gone the other way was the loss to the Eagles in the “DeSean Jackson” game.

Offense

Good quarterback, good running backs, and a couple of good receivers. A couple of good players on the offensive line, but the biggest concerns are the left tackle and the loss of Kevin Boss. One of the better and more experienced offenses in the league and should be better because last year they inexplicably had the most turnovers in the league.

Defense

The strength is on the defensive line even if Osi never plays again for the Giants. The linebackers and secondary are mediocre at best. They lost their first round pick Prince Amukamara for the season which will surely hurt.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (vs. BUF, vs. MIA, @ NE, @ NYJ), the NFC West (vs. STL, vs. SEA, @ ARI, @ SF) and vs. GB and @ NO. They play identical games (home and away) to the Cowboys, but the Giants face the Packers/Saints while the Cowboys face the Lions/Bucs. They need to take advantage of the early easy schedule and stand at 5-1 by the bye week (@ WAS, vs. STL, @ PHI, @ ARI, vs. SEA, vs. BUF). It gets absolutely brutal starting in Week 9: @ NE, @ SF, vs. PHI, @ NO, vs. GB, @ DAL, vs. WAS, @ NYJ, vs. DAL.

Overall

The Giants seem to be overlooked again, with all the attention in the division going to the Eagles, and to a lesser extent, the Cowboys. However, they bring back all their main parts from the past few years, most importantly Eli Manning, Tim Coughlin and Justin Tuck, so they will have a chance. However, I don’t think they’re good enough to overcome the extremely difficult November-December schedule in order to do much better than 9.

Prediction: 9-7

1. 4.       Washington – Under 6 (-110)

History

The Redskins won 6 games last year and 4 the year before. All 6 of their wins were by 6 points or less, including 3 in overtime. Their 4 wins in 2009 were against 4 of the worst teams in the league that year (STL, TB, OAK, DEN).

Offense

They have a bottom-tier quarterback (John Beck or Rex Grossman), below-average running backs (led by Tim Hightower) and below-average receivers (led by 32-year old Santana Moss). The offensive line is average at best.

Defense

The defense is pretty bad as well, although they added O.J. Atogwe at safety next to LaRon Landry, who should return after missing most of last season. London Fletcher is 35.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (vs. NE, vs. NYJ, @ BUF, @ MIA), the NFC West (vs. SF, vs. ARI, @ STL, @ SEA) and vs. MIN and @ CAR.

Overall

The Redskins are a distant 4^th in terms of talent in the NFC East, and it’s not even close. With 6 brutal division games, plus home games against NE and NYJ, plus 5 other road games in which they project to be underdogs in each, I don’t see how they can win 7 games.

Prediction: 5-11

NFC North

1. 1.       Green Bay – Over 11.5 (+125)

History

Last year’s Super Bowl champions went 10-6 and 11-5 the year before. None of their 6 losses were by more than 4 points, 2 were in overtime, and 2 were without Aaron Rodgers.

Offense

They have arguably the best quarterback in the league, all their key weapons returning, they have a solid offensive line and they get stud tight end Jermichael Finley back.

Defense

The Packers are loaded on defense as well, with Clay Mathews, B.J. Raji, Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams and returns 10 of 11 starters.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC West (vs. DEN, vs. OAK, @ SD, @ KC), the NFC South (vs. NO, vs. TB, @ ATL, @ CAR) and vs. STL and @ NYG.

Overall

There have been between 4-6 teams to win at least 12 games in each of the last 8 seasons. With an elite offense, elite defense and manageable schedule, the Packers will likely be one of those teams in 2011.

Prediction: 12-4

1. 2.       Chicago – Under 8 (-125)

History

The Bears went 11-5 last year and significantly exceeded expectations after finishing 7-9 in 2009. Their 11 wins included the Week 1 “win” vs. Detroit (the Calvin Johnson game) and a few others that could have gone either way (Week 3 win vs. GB, Week 9 win @ BUF, Week 13 win @ DET). Cutler, Forte and the Bears were pretty bad in 2009, as they beat up on mostly bad teams (Detroit twice, St. Louis, Cleveland, Seattle).

Offense

They return largely the same offense as last year, losing Greg Olsen and center Olin Kreutz, and adding Roy Williams and Marion Barber. With a solid quarterback, running back and receivers, the weak link will continue to be the offensive line, especially now that they lost Kreutz.

Defense

The defense should continue to be solid with Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, although age may start to become a concern. Losing Danieal Manning and Tommie Harris should hurt.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC West (vs. SD, vs. KC, @ OAK, @ DEN), the NFC South (vs. ATL, vs. CAR, @ NO, @ TB) and vs. SEA and @ PHI. They have a brutal first 3 games to start the season – vs. ATL, @ NO, vs. GB.

Overall

The Bears are an average team who overachieved last season. They’ll likely go 2-4 in a tough division, and with tough games at Philly, at New Orleans, at Tampa Bay, vs. Atlanta and vs. San Diego, it will be difficult for them to win 9. 7 or less is the more likely outcome as they fall back to normal.

Prediction: 8-8

1. 3.       Minnesota – Over 7 (-130)

History

Before last year’s disastrous 6-10 season, the Vikings were 12-4 in 2009 and 10-6 in 2008. They were oh so close to knocking off the Saints in the 2009 NFC Championship.

Offense

The play of Brett Favre was a big reason why the Vikings were 12-4 in 2009, and he was a big reason why they went 6-10 in 2010. Now they bring in Donovan McNabb, who I think is still a very good quarterback. Even despite all that happened with Washington last year, McNabb still put up good numbers. Now he gets pared with arguably the best running back in the league. Outside of Peterson and wide receiver Percy Harvin, there isn’t a lot of talent and the offensive line is weak.

Defense
The defense used to be elite but regressed last season and now they lost Pat Williams and Ray Edwards from their defensive line. They still have Jared Allen and Kevin Williams on the line, along with E.J. Henderson and Chad Greenway at linebacker and Antoine Winfield in the secondary. Overall, the defense should be at worst, an average unit, but could regain its form as a top-10 unit because there still are some very good players.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC West (vs. DEN, vs. OAK, @ SD, @ KC), the NFC South (vs. NO, vs. TB, @ ATL, @ CAR) and vs. ARI and @ WAS.

Overall

Teams that decrease their win total by 6 games have historically increased their win total the following year by at least 4 games 50% of the time. After dropping from 12 wins in 2009 to 6 wins in 2010, and not losing that many players from the 2009 success, it’s more likely than not that the Vikings bounce up in 2011 rather than decline further. With a great running back, a now underrated quarterback, a solid defense and a manageable schedule, they’ll win at least 7 games this year. 8 is more likely than 6.

Prediction: 7-9

1. 4.       Detroit – Under 8 (+120)

History

The Lions won 6 games last year, up from 2 in 2009 and 0 in 2008. The Lions were 2-10 last season before they won their last 4 after they were already out of it. They haven’t reached .500 in any of the last 9 seasons, going 37-107 over that span.

Offense

Former #1 overall pick Matthew Stafford has barely played in his first 2 seasons due to injuries, but he is healthy now and has one of the best wide receivers in the league to throw to in Calvin Johnson. Their running game is relatively weak as is their offensive line, but there is some talent and speed including Jahvid Best, Jerome Harrison, Brandon Pettigrew, Nate Burleson and rookie wide receiver Titus Young.

Defense

The defensive line is one of the best in the league on paper with Ndamukong Suh and rookie Nick Fairley at defensive tackle, surrounded by Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril and backed up by Corey Williams. However, there are still a lot of holes in the secondary and with the linebackers.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC West (vs. SD, vs. KC, @ OAK, @ DEN), the NFC South (vs. ATL, vs. CAR, @ NO, @ TB) and vs. SF and @ DAL.

Overall

8 seems like an awfully high total for a team that has been so miserable for so long. They should be better than last year, but I think expectations may be a little bit too high given the holes in the secondary, offensive line and overall inexperience. Also, they play in a very tough division and have a tough schedule.

Prediction: 7-9

NFC South

1. 1.       New Orleans – Over 10 (-150) **BEST BET**

History

The Saints had a relatively disappointing 11-5 season last year after going 13-3 the year before and winning the Super Bowl. Last year’s 5 losses included an overtime loss vs. Atlanta, a fluky mistake-driven upset at Arizona, and a Week 17 loss when they were locked into the 5-seed.

Offense

They essentially bring back their entire offense, other than replacing center Jonathan Goodwin with Olin Kreutz, and replacing Reggie Bush with Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram. They will have one of the most explosive offenses in the league again, and should be more motivated this season than last year’s possible Super Bowl hangover; especially considering the Falcons overtook them in the NFC South.

Defense

The defense is solid but not spectacular, and they added stud nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin from the 49ers.

Schedule

They have a very manageable schedule with their 6 division games, the NFC North (vs. DET, vs. CHI, @ GB, @ MIN), the AFC South (vs. IND, vs. HOU, @ JAC, @ TEN), and flex games vs. NYG and @ STL. They actually project to be favored in all but two of those games (@ GB, @ ATL).

Overall

The Saints should be able to continue to outscore a lot of their opponents in 2011, and it’s not like their defense is bottom-tier by any means. It’s difficult to find 7 losses in that bunch. It’s much more likely the Saints win 11 or more than 9 or less.

Prediction: 12-4

1. 2.       Atlanta – Over 10 (-115)

History

The Falcons won 13 games last year, 9 the year before and 11 the year before that. Their 3 losses last year came against the Steelers in overtime, at Philadelphia and vs. the Saints. They were fortunate to play the NFC West and they had several close wins.

Offense

The Falcons offense should be elite in 2011 with a franchise quarterback in Matt Ryan, a solid rushing attack, and a new-found high-octane passing offense with the addition of Julio Jones to complement Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and the improved Harry Douglas. The offense will be explosive and one of the best in the league.

Defense

They have a solid defensive line that improved by adding Ray Edwards alongside John Abraham and Jonathan Babineaux, plus former first round pick Peria Jerry may finally be healthy. They also have solid linebackers and cornerbacks. Overall, the defense is solid but not spectacular.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC South (vs. JAC, vs. TEN, @ IND, @ HOU), the NFC North (vs. GB, vs. MIN, @ CHI, @ DET) and vs. PHI and @ SEA. They have a brutal start to the season @ CHI, vs. PHI, @ TB, @ SEA, vs. GB.

Overall

There are about 10 teams that win 10 or more games each season, and the Falcons will absolutely be a top 10 team this year. The brutal schedule may prevent them from getting back up to 12-13 wins, but this is a really good team that will win at least 10.

Prediction: 10-6

1. 3.       Tampa Bay – Under 8 (-125) **BEST BET**

History

The young Bucs surprised many people last year by winning 10 games, a year after finishing 3-13. It may also surprise you if I told you that of their 10 wins, 6 of them were either lucky or extremely lucky:

• Week 1 they beat the Browns 17-14 thanks partially to the poor play of Jake Delhomme
• Week 5 they won at Cincinnati 24-21 thanks to field goal at the buzzer and a late Carson Palmer interception. Tampa was down by 7 with 2 minutes to go.
• Week 7 they beat the Rams 18-17 at the buzzer (Freeman TD pass) and also had a 53-yard FG as part of their comeback.
• Week 8 they won at Arizona 38-35 in a crazy game that could have gone either way. The Bucs had 2 defensive touchdowns in this one.
• Week 14 they won at Washington 17-16 because the Redskins missed an extra point to tie, in addition to missing 2 short FGs.
• Week 17 they won at New Orleans but the Saints were locked into the 5 seed and benched their starters halfway through the game.

Furthermore, the Bucs enjoyed a schedule that included the NFC West, Detroit, Washington, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Carolina twice. They went 1-3 against the Saints and Falcons, and lost to the Steelers and Ravens.

Offense

Josh Freeman is a good quarterback entering his third season, but he still can’t be considered a top-12 signal caller. They return mostly the same offense from last year, including their offensive line, LeGarrette Blount and wide receiver Mike Williams.

Defense

The defense is still extremely young, especially up front with second-year players Gerald McCoy and Brian Price and rookies Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers. The secondary is solid with Aqib Talib but the linebackers are weak.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC South (vs. IND, vs. HOU, @ JAC, @ TEN), the NFC North (vs. CHI, vs. DET, @ GB, @ MIN) and vs. DAL and @ SF.

Overall

This is still an extremely young team that won 9 games mostly because of an extremely easy schedule and a lot of luck. They are a distant third in their division behind New Orleans and Atlanta. With 4 games against these 2 teams, plus battles against better teams in the NFC North, Dallas, Indianapolis and Houston, it will be almost impossible for the Bucs to repeat what they did last year. In fact, of the 28 teams in the past 8 years to increase their win total by 5 or more games from the previous season, only 1 increased their win total the following season, and 19 decreased their win total by at least 3 games.

Prediction: 6-10

1. 4.       Carolina – Over 4.5 (even)

History

The Panthers won 2 games last year, down from 8 in 2009. Their 2 wins were against San Francisco by 3 and Arizona by 7. Of their 14 losses, only 2of them were by less than 10.

Offense

They have one of the better running back tandems in the league with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and they actually have one of the better offensive lines who missed Jeff Otah and Travelle Wharton for most or all of last season. Cam Newton will most likely struggle passing the ball as a rookie with below-average receiving options, but he can make plays on his feet and the Panthers did add 2 good veteran tight ends in Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey.

Defense

The Panthers have an overall below average defense, but they have solid linebackers and a new coach and defensive coordinator so not all hope is lost.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC South (vs. JAC, vs. TEN, @ IND, @ HOU), the NFC North (vs. GB, vs. MIN, @ CHI, @ DET) and vs. WAS and @ ARI. They have some winnable games early on, including home games vs. the Jaguars, Redskins, Vikings and Titans and the road game at Arizona in Week 1. They’ll have to win a few of those because the final 7 games are brutal – @ DET, @ IND, @ TB, vs. ATL, @ HOU, vs. TB, @ NO.

Overall

There are usually around 4-5 teams that win 4 or less games in a given season. The Panthers are certainly in the discussion for being one of the bottom 4 teams in the league, but there are lots of teams that are right there with the Panthers, including BUF, MIA, CLE, CIN, JAC, TEN, DEN, OAK, WAS, SEA and ARI. With the solid ground game and good offensive line, the Panthers offense could surprise some people. I would bet that they’re not one of the worst 4 teams in the league.

Prediction: 5-11

NFC West

1. 1.       Arizona – Over 7 (-150)

History

The Cardinals were pathetic last year, finishing 5-11 with 4 horrible starting quarterbacks. They dropped off from 10 wins in 2009.

Offense

The Cardinals have arguably the best WR in the league in Larry Fitzgerald and now a quarterback who can throw him the ball in Kevin Kolb. They also had a nice tight end acquisition with Todd Heap. The offensive line is abysmal, however, and the running game is pretty bad as well.

Defense

Despite having a bad year last season defensively, the Cardinals have some talent, especially in the secondary where they added first round pick Patrick Peterson to play along with safety Adrian Wilson. The defensive line is also good with Darnell Dockett, Calais Campbell and Dan Williams all returning. Daryl Washington is a good linebacker as well.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the NFC East (vs. DAL, vs. NYG, @ PHI, @ WAS), the AFC North (vs. PIT, vs. CLE, @ BAL, @ CIN) and vs. CAR and @ MIN.

Overall

Every year since the inception of the current divisional alignment, there has been at least 1 team to go from “worst to first”. This year, it will be the Arizona Cardinals. They have the best player in Larry Fitzgerald, a real quarterback this year, a good coach in Ken Whisenhunt and a good defense as far as this division is concerned. They also have a last place schedule and face Carolina and Minnesota, while the Rams have to play New Orleans and Green Bay. It will most likely be another ugly close race in the NFC West, but the Cardinals will hit the accelerator in December when they finish the season with a cupcake schedule: vs. SF, vs. CLE, @ CIN, vs. SEA.

Prediction: 8-8

1. 2.       St. Louis – Under 7.5 (-110)

History

The Rams won 7 games last season in Year 1 of the Sam Bradford era after winning a total of 6 in the prior three years combined. They had 4 games last season that could have gone either way, and they all happened to be losses:

• Week 1 – Loss vs. ARI by 4 on late Fitzgerald TD
• Week 2 – Loss @ OAK by 2
• Week 7 – Loss @ TB by 1 on Freeman TD at the buzzer
• Week 10 – Loss @ SF in overtime

They also played the Seahawks pretty tight in Week 17 in Seattle in the ‘play-in’ game. So with a little bit of luck last year, the Rams could have easily been 10-6 or 11-5.

Offense

The Rams probably have the best QB in the division, a rock solid RB in Steven Jackson, a new offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels who has had plenty of success in the past on offense with New England and Denver. They also have a pretty good offensive line, especially after adding Harvey Dahl away from the Falcons.

Defense

Other than James Laurinaitis, there aren’t a lot of big names on defense, but they were a solid unit last year, finishing 12^th in points allowed, which can at least partially be attributed to coach Steve Spagnuolo.

Schedule

This is where it gets tough. In addition to their 6 division games, they play the NFC East (vs. PHI, vs. WAS, @ NYG, @ DAL), the AFC North (vs. BAL, vs. CIN, @ PIT, @ CLE) and since they finished in 2^nd place, they have the unfortunate privilege of also facing vs. NO and @ GB. They probably have the hardest first 2 months of any team in the league: vs. PHI, @ NYG, vs. BAL, vs. WAS, BYE, @ GB, @ DAL.

Overall

While the Rams played better than their 7-9 record last season and should continue to improve this year, history says that they will take a small step back before taking a big step forward. It will be difficult to win 8 games given their schedule. They would have to win at least 4 in the division plus 2 against the NFC East and 2 against the AFC North.

Prediction: 7-9

1. 3.       San Francisco – Under 7.5 (-140)

History

The 49ers were an embarrassment last season, yet they still finished 6-10 after going 8-8 the prior season.

Offense

There are good skill position players with Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree and now Braylon Edwards. The offensive line is average, but hopefully they can have left tackle Joe Staley play for a full season. It’s surprising that they bring Alex Smith back for another year.

Defense

The 49ers got hit pretty hard defensively, losing some of their best players in Nate Clements, Manny Lawson, Takeo Spikes and Aubrayo Franklin. The defense will be pretty bad and if for some reason Patrick Willis were to miss any time, this could be the worst defense in the league.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the NFC East (vs. DAL, vs. NYG, @ PHI, @ WAS), the AFC North (vs. PIT, vs. CLE, @ BAL, @ CIN) and vs. TB and @ DET.

Overall

It will most likely be another long year in San Francisco with Alex Smith back at the helm, a new coaching regime in place, and many defensive starters lost from last year.

Prediction: 6-10

1. 4.       Seattle – Under 6 (-145)

History

The Seahawks surprisingly won 7 games last year and qualified for the playoffs after winning 5 games in 2009 and 4 games in 2008.

Offense

They replaced Matt Hasselbeck with Tarvaris Jackson and upgraded their WR by adding Sidney Rice, upgraded their TE by adding Zach Miller and upgraded their offensive line by adding Robert Gallery and hiring former Raiders head coach Tom Cable as the offensive line coach.

Defense

The defense is average at best but they have a couple of good linebackers in Aaron Curry and David Hawthorne.

Schedule

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the NFC East (vs. WAS, vs. PHI, @ DAL, @ NYG), the AFC North (vs. BAL, vs. CIN, @ CLE, @ PIT) and vs. ATL and @ CHI.

Overall

Even though they made the playoffs last year and beat the Saints in the first round, they still went 7-9 during the regular season and were a pretty bad team. Other than adding Sidney Rice and Zach Miller, they didn’t really get any better. It will be difficult for Tarvaris Jackson to lead this team to a repeat of last season’s “success” especially considering their schedule.

Prediction: 5-11

And now, just for fun, here are my 2011 playoff projections:

AFC Playoff Teams

1. New England
2. Pittsburgh
3. San Diego
4. Indianapolis
5. NY Jets
6. Houston

NFC Playoff Teams

1. New Orleans
2. Green Bay
3. Philadelphia
4. Arizona
5. Atlanta
6. Dallas

Wildcard Weekend

Indianapolis over NY Jets

San Diego over Houston

Dallas over Philadelphia

Atlanta over Arizona

Divisional Round

New England over Indianapolis

Pittsburgh over San Diego

New Orleans over Dallas

Atlanta over Green Bay

Conference Championships

Pittsburgh over New England

New Orleans over Atlanta

Super Bowl

Pittsburgh over New Orleans

AFC East

1. New York Jets – Over 9.5 (-120) – Let’s take a closer look at 6 of the Jets’ 7 losses last season:
Week 4 – Lost 24-10 at the Saints, Mark Sanchez 4 turnovers (2 for touchdowns)
Week 5 – Lost 31-27 at the Dolphins on a Ronnie Brown touchdown with under 10 seconds
Week 6 – Lost 16-13 to the Bills in overtime, Sanchez 6 turnovers
Week 8 – Lost 30-25 to the Dolphins because Ted Ginn had two 100-yard kickoff returns
Week 10 – Lost 24-22 to the Jaguars on field goal as time expired, Sanchez 2 turnovers
Week 15 – Lost 10-7 to the Falcons on a score with under 2 minutes, Sanchez 3 turnovers
The point is that the only regular season game last season in which the Jets did not have a legitimate chance to win was a 31-14 loss at New England in Week 11. They had the best defense in the league last year in just about every category and they didn’t lose anyone other than safety Kerry Rhodes who was in Rex Ryan’s doghouse anyway. They get nose tackle Kris Jenkins back who only played 6 games last year, plus they added Jason Taylor, Antonio Cromartie and first round cornerback Kyle Wilson. The potential of this defense is scary. Offensively, Sanchez will naturally get better in his second year, especially in the turnover department, despite a shaky preseason performance. There are lots of new weapons offensively, particularly Santonio Holmes and LaDainian Tomlinson. Plus they still have one of the best offensive lines in the game despite losing Alan Faneca to the Cardinals.

The one thing holding me back from including this as one of my best bets, other than the quarterback play, is the very tough schedule. In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC North (vs. BAL, vs. CIN, @ PIT, @ CLE), the NFC North (vs. GB, vs. MIN, @ CHI, @ DET) and vs. HOU and @ DEN. The Jets are now the best team in the AFC East and their defense should be able to carry them to 10 wins.

Prediction: 10-6

2. New England – Under 9.5 (+130) – There are way too many red flags for the Patriots this year. How effective will Wes Welker be following his ACL injury? How much does 33-year old Randy Moss have left? The offensive line is getting old and their best lineman, Logan Mankins, is unhappy with his contract and has requested a trade. Their second-best lineman, Nick Kaczur, is likely out for the season .Their defense was below average before they lost top cornerback Leigh Bodden for the season a couple weeks ago. Now, they are one Vince Wilfork injury away from being the worst defense in the NFL. Can Tom Brady, who clearly looked hesitant quite often last season, get back to the same level as before his injury? Will the expiring contracts of Brady and Moss be a distraction? Anyone who watched them last year knows that they’re not the same Patriots team who has remarkably won at least 10 games in each of the past 7 seasons. Whether it was the Week 1 lucky victory against Buffalo, the Monday Night blowout loss to the Saints, or the home playoff embarrassment to the Ravens, the Patriots just don’t look like the Patriots of the 00’s anymore.

Other than the two “flex” games (not sure what else to call them), New England’s schedule is identical to that of the Jets in terms of home games and road games. 6 division games, the AFC North (vs. BAL, vs. CIN, @ PIT, @ CLE), the NFC North (vs. GB, vs. MIN, @ CHI, @ DET), and the 2 flex games are vs. IND and @ SD (as opposed to the Jets, who are home to Houston and at Denver). With all these red flags, it’s time to stop using the “never bet against Brady and Belichick” excuse. The Pats are not winning 10 games this season.

Prediction: 8-8

3. Miami – Under 8.5 (+115) – The Dolphins were 7-9 last season and their victories were by margins of 4, 5, 2, 7, 1, 4, and 28 (vs. Buffalo). In 2008, they won 11 games against the league’s easiest schedule that year, which included a 2-point home win vs. Oakland, a 2-point home win against Seattle, a 4-point win at Seattle, a 4-point win at St. Louis, a 5-point win against San Francisco, and a 7-point win at Kansas City. The year before that, they were 1-15. Sure, it’s a different and better team now, but not a 9-win team when considering their schedule. I like the offense – very good offensive line, a good young quarterback (Chad Henne), a new stud wide receiver (Brandon Marshall) and good running backs (Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams). Defensively, they lost Jason Taylor and Joey Porter and they have one of the weakest defensive lines in the league. They added Karlos Dansby (highest paid linebacker ever) and they have good young cornerbacks, but it’s still a bottom-half defense.

Their schedule includes the 6 division games, the AFC North (vs. PIT, vs. CLE, @ BAL, @ CIN), the NFC North (vs. DET, vs. CHI, @ MIN, @ GB) and their two flex games are vs. TEN and @ OAK. Looking at the start of their season, they may be out of it by Thanksgiving. They’ll finish strong due to their easy schedule and everyone will be picking them as their sleeper team in 2011.

Prediction: 8-8

4. Buffalo – Under 5.5 (-170) – The Bills appear to be a distant fourth in the AFC East. They won 6 games last year, 1 of them being the meaningless Week 17 blowout win of Indianapolis and 1 being the 3-point overtime win against the Jets in which Mark Sanchez had 6 turnovers. Of their 10 losses, 5 were by at least 20. They rank near the very bottom of the league at quarterback (Trent Edwards), wide receivers (Lee Evans and little else? Still?) and offensive line. Their defense is average at best.

Looking at their schedule, it’s not easy finding 6 winnable games. In a best-case scenario, they would be favored 3 times this year. They have their 6 brutal division games, the AFC North (vs. PIT, vs. CLE, @ CIN, @ BAL), NFC North (vs. DET, vs. CHI, @ MIN, @ GB), and 2 flex (vs. JAC, @ KC). Over the past 8 years, there has been an average of 8 teams that win 5 games or less in a given season. I think it’s pretty safe to say that the Bills will be in the bottom quarter of the league this year.

Prediction: 3-13

AFC North

1. Baltimore – Over 10 (-130) – The Ravens won 9 games last year and 11 the year before. They had one of the best offseason acquisitions by picking up Anquan Boldin. The addition of Boldin solidifies this offense as one of the best in the league. A top offensive line, a very strong running game, and now a strong receiving game, led by a potential Pro Bowl quarterback in Joe Flacco. With the Ed Reed injury and Ray Lewis’ inevitable decline, the offense may have passed the defense. The defense is still one of the best in the league which is led by a top-5 defensive line anchored by Haloti Ngata and Trevor Pryce. Of their 9 wins last year, only 2 of them were even close. Of their 7 losses, they actually should have won 5 of them. I’m sure you remember at least a few of them:
Week 4 – Lost 27-21 at New England, bad calls in the 4th and a blown catch by Mark Clayton
Week 5 – Lost 17-14 vs. Cincinnati, terrible calls against the Ravens D on a final drive capped off by an Andre Caldwell touchdown with 22 seconds left.
Week 6 – Lost 33-31 at Minnesota in a wild finish capped off by a missed Ravens field goal as time expired
Week 11 – Lost 17-15 vs. the Colts in another close game that came down to the wire
Week 16 – Lost 23-20 at Pittsburgh on a late field goal by Jeff Reed

They could have just as easily been 13-3 last season. They got some revenge in the playoffs with their 33-14 smashing of the Patriots in Foxboro. This year, the Ravens have their 6 division games, the AFC East (vs. MIA, vs. BUF, @ NE, @ NYJ), the NFC South (vs. NO, vs. TB, @ ATL, @ CAR) and their two flex (vs. DEN, @ HOU). While 10 wins is a lot, there is no way they’re only winning 9. Keep in mind that on average, there are 4-5 teams that win at least 12 games every season, 7 teams win 11 or more, and 10 teams win 10 games. They are probably one of the top 5 teams in the NFL. If you take the over, the worst you will do is push.

Prediction: 12-4

2. Pittsburgh – Over 9 (+145) – The Steelers still have one of the best defenses in the league, if not the best. They won 9 games last season but were 4-1 with Troy Polamalu, 5-6 without him. Polamalu is back to full strength for this season. Their linebacking group is incredible with Lamarr Woodley, James Harrison, James Farrior and Lawrence Timmons. Their 7 losses last season were by margins of 3, 3, 6, 3, 3, 3, and 7. Two of those losses were in overtime. They won 12 and 10 games in the two years prior and have won 2 of the past 5 Super Bowls. It’s obviously a championship-caliber defense with experience. The offense, however, could be worrisome, particularly in the first 4 games without Roethlisberger. They already had one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and now they lost their best o-lineman for the season (Willie Colon). They lost Santonio Holmes, their best receiver (Hines Ward) is 34, and their running game is one of the worst. The offense could be really ugly. They do get Ben Roethlisberger back eventually, and whether you like him or not, he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

They have their 6 division games, the AFC East (vs. NE, vs. NYJ, @ BUF, @ MIA), the NFC South (vs. ATL, vs. CAR, @ NO, @ TB) and their flex games (vs. OAK, @ TEN). With a great defense and a great quarterback for 12 of 16 games, I think the Steelers have a much better chance to win 10 or more than to win 8 or less, which is why I would take the over.

Prediction: 11-5

3. Cincinnati – Under 8.5 (-120) – The Bengals surprised many people last year by winning 10 games (not me, I predicted them to win 10), but their 10 wins were a product of an easy schedule and getting lucky. 7 of their 10 wins were by 7 or less points, and 9 of their 10 wins were by 10 or less. They lost 3 of their last 4 games before getting beat by the Jets at home in the playoffs. In the three years prior to last season, they won 4, 7 and 8 games. Bottom line is that they’re an average NFL team at best who saw everything go right for them in the regular season last year. They are getting a lot of hype this preseason despite being the third best team in their division with a first-place schedule. Check out these stats while keeping in mind that the Bengals won 10 games last year and 4 the year before:
• In the past 7 seasons, there have been 13 teams that that won 6 or more games from their prior year win total. Of those 13 teams, 9 of them saw their win total decrease by at least 3 the following season. Likewise, of the last 24 teams who increased their win total by at least 5 games, 17 of them saw their win total decrease by at least 3 the following season.
• In 6 of the past 7 seasons, there has been at least 2 teams who wins 10+ games and then wins 5 or less the next year.

This season, in addition to Cincinnati’s 6 division games, they play the AFC East (vs. MIA, vs. BUF, @ NE, @ NYJ), the NFC South (vs. TB, vs. NO, @ CHI, @ DET), and since they finished in first place in their division last year, they get to play vs. SD and @ IND. They open the season at New England, vs. Baltimore, at Carolina, at Cleveland. 6 of their final 8 games include a Thanksgiving night game at the Jets, at Indianapolis, vs. New Orleans, @ Pittsburgh, vs. San Diego on Sunday Night, and they close the season at Baltimore. This team is not good enough to get to .500 with this schedule.

Prediction: 7-9

4. Cleveland – Under 5.5 (+120) – The Browns won 5 games last year after starting the season 1-11, and finished 4-12 the year before. They turned the keys over to a 35-year old who in his last 12 starts has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 9:23. This was despite being protected by one of the best running games in the NFL and a proven receiver in Steve Smith. Now, Jake Delhomme will be playing with one of the worst running games and arguably the worst group of receivers in the league. Delhomme, Seneca Wallace and Colt McCoy will all likely see time as the starter, with McCoy taking over by Thanksgiving. All-pro left tackle Joe Thomas and running back Jerome Harrison (561 rushing yards on 106 carries in the final 3 games, all wins in meaningless games against the Chiefs, Raiders and Jaguars) can only carry this offense so far. The defense isn’t anything special either.

They are a distant fourth in their division in terms of talent and they would be fortunate to win 1 of their 6 division games. They also face the AFC East (vs. NE, vs. NYJ, @ MIA, @ BUF), the NFC South (vs. CAR, vs. ATL, @ NO, @ TB) and their 2 flex games vs. KC and @ JAC. Week 2 against Kansas City is probably the only game all season that they will be favored. As I said above with the Bills, there is an average of 8 teams that win 5 games or less in a given season. Cleveland has a great chance of being 1 of those 8 teams.

Prediction: 4-12

AFC South

1. Indianapolis – Over 11 (+105) – I’m not sure why the Colts are considered more likely to win 10 or less than 12 or more. The Colts have amazingly won at least 12 games for seven seasons in a row. They are 89-23 (79.4%) in that stretch which includes 5 losses in Week 16 and 17 in which Peyton Manning and other starters played less than a half to rest for the playoffs. There are no indications that the Colts are about to start slowing down. If anything, their offense looks as good as it’s ever been with young talented receivers Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez to join veteran Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark in the passing game. The defense is never anything special but it’s not any worse now than it’s been over the past few years. They have one of the best defensive end combinations in the league with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, and they get back Bob Sanders who played only 2 games last season.

The most likely reason why their over/under is so low, relatively speaking, is their schedule, and the fact that they play the NFC East (vs. DAL, vs. NYG, @ PHI, @ WAS) this year compared to the NFC West last year. But on the other hand, they get the weak AFC West (vs. SD, vs. KC, @ DEN, @ OAK). Their 6 division games are by no means easy, plus they vs. CIN and @ NE. The bottom line is that if it’s a close game in the 4th quarter, Peyton Manning is going to find a way to win it 9 out of 10 times. Plan and simple, he is too good, and the Colts will do it again in the regular season this year.

Prediction: 12-4

2. Houston – Over 8.5 (-115) – The Texans have been on the brink of the playoffs for a few years now, finishing just on the outside last year at 9-7, and 8-8 in each of the two years prior to last season. Is this the year they finally get over the hump? They’re a young team with all their key players returning (other than Brian Cushing’s 4-game suspension). They addressed their biggest weakness in the secondary by drafting Kareem Jackson in the first round. There is a lot of potential on defense with Mario Williams, Amobi Okoye, DeMeco Ryans, Cushing and Jackson.

You would think that there’s a better chance they win 9 or more than 8 or less, but they do have a brutal schedule. In addition to playing the Colts, Titans and Jaguars twice each, they play the AFC West (vs. SD, vs. KC, @ DEN, @ OAK), the NFC East (vs. DAL, vs. NYG, @ PHI, @ WAS) and they have brutal flex games vs. BAL and @ NYJ. It’s a tough schedule, but they’re one of the few teams in the AFC who could potentially take a giant step forward and win 12 or more. I’m not going that far, but I’ll still take the over.

Prediction: 10-6

3. Tennessee – Over 8.5 (+110) – The Titans finished 8-8 last season after going 13-3 the year before that. Tennessee has the best running back in the league, a quarterback who just wins football games, and a head coach who will have them prepared and ready to play physically every week. The defense isn’t elite but I would trust the Titans to bounce back. They did finish last year by winning 8 of their last 10 games, they went 13-3 the year before, and 10-6 the year before that.

They have their 6 division games, the AFC West (vs. DEN, vs. OAK, @ SD, @ KC), the NFC East (vs. PHI, vs. WAS, @ DAL, @ NYG), vs. PIT (without Roethlisberger) and @ MIA.

Prediction: 9-7

4. Jacksonville – Under 7 (-140) – After losing their last 4 games of last season to finish 7-9 (5-11 the year before), is this Jack Del Rio’s last year as head coach? They’re towards the bottom of the league in terms of overall talent, they’re the least talented team in their division (but I don’t think they’re too far behind Tennessee and Houston) and they play in front of a crowd that doesn’t show up for games.

In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC West (vs. DEN, vs. OAK, @ SD, @ KC) and the NFC East (vs. PHI, vs. WAS, @ DAL, @ NYG), but have extremely favorable flex games vs. CLE and @ BUF. Still, I think it’s more likely that they finish 6-10 than they reach .500.

Prediction: 6-10

AFC West

1. Kansas City – Over 6.5 (-110) – That’s right. I’m picking the Chiefs to win the division. One of the most amazing streaks in the league is that in every year since the inception of the current division and scheduling format in 2002, there has been at least one team to go from “worst to first” in a division, and in four of those years, two teams pulled it off. Last year, it was the Saints (how did they finish in last place in 2008?). The Chiefs appear to be the most likely choice in 2010 because of their weak division, the inevitable fall of the Chargers (discussed below), their easy schedule, their historical strong home field advantage, as well as some underrated talent. They have a competent quarterback in Matt Cassel who is entering his second year as the starter. They added Thomas Jones, the two-time defending AFC rushing leader, to the backfield to compliment the explosive Jamaal Charles. Dwayne Bowe and rookie Dexter McCluster are also pretty good talents. Their offensive line needs to improve and the young pieces on defense need to come together, but there’s no shortage of potential with recent top picks in Glenn Dorsey, Tyson Jackson and Eric Berry, and young cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr. Plus, they added lots of experience to the coaching staff with Charlie Weis and Romeo Crenel, the coordinators of the great Patriot teams in the mid-00’s.

The schedule is one of the easiest in the league. They have their 6 division games, the AFC South (vs. JAC, vs. TEN, @ IND, @ HOU), the NFC West (vs. ARI, vs. SF, @ SEA, @ STL) and flex games vs. BUF and @ CLE. It all starts in Week 1 on Monday Night Football at home against the Chargers who will be without Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil. One other stat in addition to the “worst to first”: Since the new division and scheduling format was implemented in 2002, there has always been at least one team who wins 5 games or less and then wins 10 games the next year. Last year it was the Bengals. The year before it was the Ravens, Falcons and Dolphins. This year’s possibilities are the Chiefs, Raiders, Browns, Redskins, Lions, Buccaneers, Seahawks and Rams. For all the reasons mentioned above, I’m picking the Chiefs to shock the world.

Prediction: 10-6 (I would also take them to win the division at 6:1)

2. San Diego – Under 10.5 (-110) – This is an extremely high total, second in the league behind the Colts. The main reason is the fact that they, along with Kansas City, have the easiest schedule in the league. Despite winning 13 games last year, there is serious flop potential with this group. They’ve shown flashes of awfulness over the past couple years (don’t forget they started 4-8 in 2008) including being annihilated by the Steelers on Sunday Night Football early in 2009. Looking ahead to the 2010 season, this team just doesn’t appear to be one of the most talented teams in the league anymore. Their best receiver, Vincent Jackson, is not coming back. Without Jackson, this receiving group is one of the least talented and least experienced in the league. They lost LaDainian Tomlinson, who obviously lost a few steps over the past couple years, but he still had a nose for the end zone and I’m sure they will miss his presence. Their offensive line is below average even before you factor in the fact that their best lineman, Marcus McNeil, is still holding out. Their defense as a whole is average, but they have one of the weakest defensive lines in football. So how exactly did they win 13 games last year? Well, Philip Rivers is a great quarterback who knows how to win close games; and their division sucks. The year before last, they only won 8 games. In fact, that year, they started 4-8 before winning their last 4 and somehow making the playoffs. Someone in their division will improve and challenge them and as you already know, I’m projecting that team to be Kansas City.

Like I said before, the schedule is extremely favorable as they play 6 easy division games, the AFC South (vs. TEN, vs. JAC, @ IND, @ HOU), the NFC West (vs. SF, vs. ARI, @ SEA, @ STL) and their two flex games are vs. NE and @ CIN. Based on this schedule alone, it’s unlikely that the Chargers are a complete flop. However, it’s still never easy to win 11 games in the NFL. Every year, there is at least one team to win 12 games one year and then win 8 or less the following year. Last year, the teams that dropped from 12 to 8 wins were the Giants, Panthers and Titans. The Chargers may not fall to 8 because of their easy schedule, but they’ll be close.

Prediction: 9-7

3. Oakland – Under 6.5 (even) – The Raiders haven’t won more than 5 games since 2002, the year they went to the Super Bowl. That’s 7 consecutive years of 5 wins or less. Last year, their 5 wins were by a total of 14 points. Their 11 losses, meanwhile, were by a total of 196 points. Adding Jason Campbell will help the offense, but it doesn’t change the fact that they have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and one of the worst groups of receivers in the league. Besides, it’s not like Campbell was a model of greatness in Washington (they won 4 games last year). Oakland’s pass defense was already one of the best led by shutdown cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha. Now they improved their linebackers by drafting Rolando McClain in the first round and picking up Kamerion Wimbley from Cleveland. They could have a top-10 defense but their offense will still be ugly.

They have the 6 division games, the AFC South (vs. IND, vs. HOU, @ TEN, @ JAC), the NFC West (vs. SEA, vs. STL, @ ARI, @ SF) and their two flex games are vs. MIA and @ PIT. Because of their potentially good defense and their easy schedule, it wouldn’t shock me to see them win 7 games. I still think that 6.5 is too high and there’s a much better chance they fall below that total.

Prediction: 5-11

4. Denver – Under 7 (-125) – Entering last season, the expectations for the Broncos were extremely low. In part due to a favorable schedule, as well as a miraculous Brandon Stokley touchdown in Week 1, the Broncos shocked the world by starting the season 6-0. Starting with a 30-7 smashing by the Ravens, the Broncos came back to Earth in the second half of the season, finishing the year 2-8 in their last 10. They got rid of their best offensive player in Brandon Marshall, leaving them with a very mediocre (at best) collection of talent on offense, led by below-average starting quarterback Kyle Orton. With Brady Quinn and first-round pick Tim Tebow also on the team, there is almost no chance that Kyle Orton survives the whole season as the starter. The media will be pushing for a quarterback change at the first 2-game losing streak, which will occur at some point from weeks 3-6 when the Broncos play vs. the Colts, at Tennessee, at Baltimore and then vs. the Jets in consecutive weeks. They also lost their best defensive player due to injury in Elvis Dumervil. It could be a very long season for the Broncos.

They have the 6 division games, the AFC South (vs. IND, vs. HOU, @ TEN, @ JAC), the NFC West (vs. SEA, vs. STL, @ ARI, @ SF) but their two flex games are vs. NYJ and @ BAL, which is as tough as it can get for a second-place schedule.

Prediction: 4-12

NFC East

1. Dallas – Over 10 (-140) – In the three seasons in which Tony Romo was the full-time starter, the Cowboys won 13 games (2007), 9 games (2008) and 11 games (2009). In 2008, Romo missed 3 games and they went 1-2 in that stretch. The Cowboys are loaded on both sides of the ball with very few (if any) weaknesses. On average, 10 teams win at least 10 games every season. I think it’s very safe to say that the Cowboys will be one of those 10 teams.

In addition to their 6 tough division games, they face the NFC North (vs. CHI, vs. DET, @ GB, @ MIN), the AFC South (vs. TEN, vs. JAC, @ IND, @ HOU), and their 2 flex games are vs. NO and @ ARI. It’s a tough schedule in a good division and I still don’t completely trust Romo and Wade Philips. I’m picking the over but it’s not one of my best bets.

Prediction: 11-5

2. New York Giants – Over 8.5 (-155) – It wasn’t too long ago that the Giants won the Super Bowl (2007), finished 12-4 (2008), and started the 2009 season 5-0. Then things started to fall apart and they finished the 2009 season 3-8 in their last 11 and some of those games weren’t even close. The main reason was their defense and particularly their secondary, which missed starters Kenny Phillips and Aaron Ross for 14 and 12 games, respectively. The defense gave up at least 40 points an astonishing 6 times in their last 11 games. With Philips and Ross back and healthy, and the additions of Antrel Rolle to the secondary and Keith Bullock at linebacker, the defense should come back to be one of the better units in the league. Despite their struggles running the football last year, there shouldn’t be much concern with the offense, particularly with their experienced offensive line and leadership from Eli Manning.

They have their 6 division games, the NFC North (vs. CHI, vs. DET, @ MIN, @ GB), the AFC South (vs. TEN, vs. JAC, @ IND, @ HOU) and vs. CAR and @ SEA. Other than Seattle and possibly Washington, that’s as tough a slate of road games as you will find. However, the Giants have been a very good road team the past few years. They are sort of being overlooked this preseason but they will absolutely be a tough team.

Prediction: 10-6

3. Washington – Under 7.5 (even) – The Redskins were obviously a lost cause last season as they went 4-12 with their only wins coming against the Rams, Bucs, Raiders and Broncos. Mike Shanahan and Donovan McNabb are tremendous additions but are they enough to make this team a contender in the toughest division in the league? Led by 31-year old speedster Santana Moss, they don’t have great weapons at wide receiver. Their offensive line was one of the worst last year, so while adding Trent Williams in the first round will help, history says that Donovan McNabb will likely miss some time with injuries. The defense is undergoing a switch to a 3-4 which will be anchored by the fat and grumpy Albert Haynesworth. The Redskins should be better in 2010 but probably not good enough to get to .500.

They have their 6 brutal division games, the NFC North (vs. MIN, vs. GB, @ CHI, @ DET), the AFC South (vs. IND, vs. HOU, @ TEN, @ JAC), and 2 easy flex games vs. TB and @ STL.

Prediction: 7-9

4. Philadelphia – Under 8.5 (-120) – Without Donovan McNabb, this will not feel like the same old Eagles. In my opinion, McNabb has been the most underrated underappreciated player in the league over the last decade. I have no idea how good Kevin Kolb will be, but as a rookie, he won’t have the same command over the offense that McNabb always had and he will certainly have his fare share of turnovers in a pass-happy offense without a good running game. Don’t forget, they also lost veteran Brian Westbrook. Where is the leadership going to come from? What kind of confidence will Kolb inspire in the huddle, especially after his second turnover of the game? How will he do in close games? How will he play in the tough division road games? How long until DeSean Jackson starts running his mouth at Kolb? The good news is that the Eagles defense supposedly looks fantastic despite being one of the younger units in the league.

They have their 6 division games, the NFC North (vs. GB, vs. MIN, @ CHI, @ DET), the AFC South (vs. IND, vs. HOU, @ TEN, @ JAC), and tough flex games vs. ATL and @ SF. It was not a promising end to last season with the 2 blowout losses to the Cowboys, and that will continue into 2010. They have a lot of talent, but with all the youth and inexperience, they will struggle on the road and in close games. In 6 of the past 7 seasons, there have been at least 2 teams who win 10+ games and then 5 or less the next year. If any of the 10+ win teams from last year fall to 5 or less in 2010, it would be the Eagles. I wouldn’t bet the house on this one because for all we know, Kolb could be great and they have plenty of talent. But remember, even Aaron Rodgers was only 6-10 in his first year as the Packers’ starter.

Prediction: 6-10

NFC North

1. Green Bay – Under 10 (-105) – The Packers have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball but I feel like it will be very hard to win 11 games for the second year in a row. Despite their potent passing attack and their big-play linebackers and secondary, they don’t run the ball particularly well, and they don’t have a very good offensive line or defensive line. Because of these weaknesses, particularly the offensive line, I’m not ready to call the Packers an elite team just yet, despite their strong preseason.

They have their 6 division games, the NFC East (vs. DAL, vs. NYG, @ PHI, @ WAS), the AFC East (vs. MIA, vs. BUF, @ NYJ, @ NE), and their 2 flex games are difficult vs. SF and @ ATL. Last year, they feasted on the NFC West but this year they get the NFC East. Plus, the Lions and Bears should both be tougher this year than last. With the 2 games against the Vikings, the 4 games against the NFC East, and the road games at New England, the Jets and at the Falcons, it’s more likely they finish 9-7 or worse than 11-5 or better. I’m calling a push, however.

Prediction: 10-6

2. Minnesota – Over 9.5 (even) – Other than the last-second miracle touchdown pass against the 49ers in Week 3 and the miracle come-from-behind victory against the Ravens in Week 6, the Vikings were a very legit 12-4. They absolutely crushed teams and were noticeably more physical and talented than most teams they faced. This team doesn’t really have any weaknesses other than an old quarterback who just lost his best receiver. They have a great running back, a good offensive line, the best defensive line in the league and good enough linebackers and defensive backs. I acknowledge that there is almost zero chance that Favre will be even as close to as good in 2010 as he was in 2009. There’s even a pretty decent chance that he self-combusts in what will almost certainly be his final season in the league. However, don’t forget that the Vikings won 10 games in 2008 pre-Favre with Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte sharing the show. With all the talent and strength on both sides of the ball, the Vikings are still the best team in the NFC North.

They have their 6 division games, the NFC East (vs. DAL, vs. NYG, @ PHI, @ WAS), the AFC East (vs. MIA, vs. BUF, @ NE, @ NYJ) and their flex games are vs. ARI and @ NO. They won 12 games last year and 10 games the year before, and I expect them to get to at least 10 for a third consecutive year. Remember, on average, there are 10 teams each year to win 10 games. They will be a top-10 team again this season.

Prediction: 10-6

3. Chicago – Under 7.5 (+120) – The Bears were an unimpressive 7-9 last year with 2 wins over the Lions, and wins vs. St. Louis, vs. Cleveland, at Seattle, as well as a last-second win against Pittsburgh and an overtime shocker against the Vikings in Week 16. The team definitely has potential in 2010 with Jay Cutler and his young and fast wide receivers learning from new offensive coordinator Mike Martz. There is also talent at running back (Matt Forte and Chester Taylor) and tight end (Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark). The offensive line is the weak spot of the offense. On defense, they added Julius Peppers to a defensive line that already includes Tommie Harris. Brian Urlacher returns after only playing 1 game last season and rejoins Lance Briggs at the linebacker position. The secondary remains a weakness, but overall, this defense could be really good.

They have their 6 division games, the NFC East (vs. PHI, vs. WAS, @ DAL, @ NYG), the AFC East (vs. NE, vs. NYJ, @ MIA, @ BUF), and flex games vs. SEA and @ CAR. There certainly is talent and potential, and it wouldn’t totally shock me to see them win the division. However, I think the more likely scenario is that they continue to be an inconsistent underachieving group who look great one week and then Cutler throws 4 picks the next week.

Prediction: 7-9

4. Detroit – Over 5 (-145) – The last 8 years, the Lions win totals were 2, 0, 7, 3, 5, 6, 5, 3 and 2. Over that same time, their road record is 8-64. As pathetic as they’ve been, they actually had quite an incredible offseason. They added Nate Burleson, Tony Scheffler and rookie Jahvid Best at the offensive skill positions to join a healthy Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson. They also made a tremendous pickup of left guard Rob Sims from Seattle to improve an offensive line that could be pretty good. Their defensive line has undergone a complete transformation and now features second overall pick nose tackle Ndamukong Suh and veterans Kyle Vanden Bosch and Corey Williams. All of a sudden, they have a legitimate defensive line. Their secondary is still weak but at least they added a lot of talent and experience to a defensive unit that has been a joke over this abominable streak.

They have their 6 division games, the NFC East (vs. PHI, vs. WAS, @ DAL, @ NYG), the AFC East (vs. NE, vs. NYJ, @ MIA, @ BUF) and flex games vs. STL and @ TB. As much as they’ve improved from last season, I still can’t see them doing better than 2-4 in their division, and even that’s pushing it. They’re still a year or two away from a playoff run, but for 2010 I would put them in a tier ahead of the bottom-feeders (i.e., Buffalo, Cleveland, St. Louis, Seattle, Tampa Bay).

Prediction: 5-11

NFC South

1. New Orleans – Over 10.5 (-130) – The Super Bowl champions return pretty much the same team from last year when they were simply dominant the entire season, other than the Week 15 Saturday night game they got beat by Dallas. They scored at least 30 points 9 times and never scored less than 20. Offense wins games in this league and the Saints will be one of the best again. Their opponents won’t be able to keep up with them. Remember, there are 4-5 teams each year to win at least 12 games. The Saints will be one of those teams in 2010.

They have their 6 division games, the NFC West (vs. SEA, vs. STL, @ ARI, @ SF), the AFC North (vs. PIT, vs. CLE, @ BAL, @ CIN) vs. MIN and @ DAL. It’s not a very difficult schedule. They will most likely be favored in 14 of their 16 games (only at Baltimore and at Dallas they will be underdogs).

Prediction: 12-4

2. Atlanta – Under 9.5 (even) – There are only about 10 teams that win 10 or more games each season, and I doubt that the Falcons will be a top 10 team in 2010. They did win 9 games last year and 11 the year before but they ended up playing very easy schedules, including the easiest schedule in the league in 2008 (in 2007 they were 4-12). They have a pretty good offense led by Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, but there is very little depth after those guys at the skill positions, and they have an average offensive line. Their defense is below average and overall, this team appears to be just about average.

They have their 6 division games, the NFC West (vs. ARI, vs. SF, @ SEA, @ STL), the NFC North (vs. BAL, vs. CIN, @ PIT, @ CLE), and vs. GB and @ PHI. They play at Pittsburgh in Week 1 without Roethlisberger. Their schedule is relatively easy again this year and I think they should flirt with 10 wins but I still think more often than not they win 9 or less.

Prediction: 9-7

3. Carolina – Over 7 (+145) – The Panthers were a weak 8-8 team last season. They started the season 5-8 and then won 3 meaningless games once their season was already over, including a Week 17 victory over the Saints’ bench players. Matt Moore is the starting quarterback and although the Panthers were 4-1 last season while he was the starter, he wasn’t overly impressive. The Panthers are obviously a run-first team and have a great combination with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart running behind a pretty good offensive line. However, they have one of the weakest groups of receivers in the league. They were one of the worst defenses last year (particularly against the run) and now they lost arguably their best player, Julius Peppers. One thing in their favor (other than their running game) is their coaching. I trust John Fox and his teams always tend to surprise for better or for worse. The year before last year, they surprised everyone and went 12-4. In the last 8 seasons, the Panthers have won at least 7 games each year and have been up and down basically every year:
2002 – 7 wins
2003 – 11 wins
2004 – 7 wins
2005 – 11 wins (reached Super Bowl)
2006 – 8 wins
2007 – 7 wins
2008 – 12 wins
2009 – 8 wins

Is 2010 an “up” year for the Panthers? They have their 6 division games, the NFC West (vs. ARI, vs. SF, @ SEA, @ STL), the AFC North (vs. BAL, vs. CIN, @ PIT, @ CLE), and vs. CHI and @ NYG. They have a great foundation with their excellent running game and offensive line. If Matt Moore can manage the game, Steve Smith can make a few big plays, and a couple guys step up on defense, this could be a playoff team. I don’t think they’ll end up in the playoffs, but I’m not betting against John Fox.

Prediction: 8-8

4. Tampa Bay – Under 5.5 (+110) – The Bucs were clearly one of the worst teams in the league in the year as they finished 3-13 after starting 0-7 and 1-12 while getting absolutely destroyed in some weeks. While they made a couple nice additions to their defense via the draft (Gerald McCoy, Brian Price), they are still an extremely young and inexperienced team on both sides of the ball, as well as in the coaching box. Freeman could end up being good, but they still have a weak running game, weak passing game, weak offensive line and below average defense. This team is not ready to be compete for a playoff spot in 2010.

They have their 6 division games, the NFC West (vs. SEA, vs. STL, @ ARI, @ SF), the AFC North (vs. PIT, vs. CLE, @ BAL, @ CIN), vs. DET and @ WAS. Since they play the NFC West, the under isn’t a slam dunk, but they’re easily in the bottom quarter in the league, and each year a quarter of the league finishes with 5 or less wins.

Prediction: 5-11

NFC West

1. Arizona – Over 7.5 (-135) – Everyone is picking the 49ers to unseat the two-time defending NFC West champions. Granted, the Cardinals lost Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Antrel Rolle and Karlos Dansby, four of their best players, but in my opinion they’re still the team to beat. They have the best wide receiver in the league (Larry Fitzgerald), a great cornerback (Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), a potentially scary good defensive line (Darnell Docket, Calais Campbell, rookie Dan Williams, depth with Gabe Watson and Alan Branch), a solid running attack (Beanie Wells, Tim Hightower), an improved offensive line (an underrated acquisition of Alan Faneca from the Jets), and a smart coach (Ken Whisenhunt) that I would take any day over Mike Singletary. Quarterback is obviously a question mark, but Arizona’s situation isn’t that much worse than San Francisco’s (Alex Smith).

Playing in the NFC West, the schedule is obviously easy with their 6 division games, the NFC South (vs. NO, vs. TB, @ ATL, @ CAR), the AFC West (vs. DEN, vs. OAK, @ SD, @ KC), and vs. DAL and @ MIN.

Prediction: 9-7

2. San Francisco – Under 9 (+105) – Although I’m picking the Cardinals to win the division, I still think the 49ers will have a good year and be in the hunt for a wildcard spot. Obviously the schedule is favorable and they have one of the best defensive players in football in Patrick Willis. On the offensive line, they added 2 first rounders, plus former first round pick Joe Staley only played 5 games last year .The improvement on the offensive line along with the addition of Brian Westbrook will improve the running game. Plus, they add a full season (including training camp) of Michael Crabtree to an offense that could be a very good unit. The defense is also solid. I just don’t think this team is mature enough to pass Arizona and win the division.

I still think they have a great chance to get to 9 wins because of the easy schedule. They have their 6 division games, the NFC South (vs. NO, vs. TB, @ ATL, @ CAR), the AFC West (vs. DEN, vs. OAK, @ SD, @ KC), and vs. PHI and @ GB. I just think expectations may be a little too high for the 49ers.

Prediction: 8-8

3. St. Louis – Over 4.5 (-120) – You don’t see many over/unders this low. Sure, in each year of the current scheduling format, there has been at least 3 teams with 4 or less wins (5 on average), and there’s a pretty decent chance that the Rams are one of the bottom 5 teams in the league, particularly after winning 1, 2, and 3 games in 2009, 2008 and 2007, respectively. Wow that’s bad. Of the 34 teams that have won 4 or less games in one year, 26 of them won 5 or more the next year. The thing about the NFL is that things change and for the 2010 Rams, there’s nowhere to go but up. The Rams added first overall pick Sam Bradford to save the franchise, so who knows? The Falcons appeared to be a hopeless team entering 2008 but third overall pick Matt Ryan turned the team around to an 11-5 season. Plus, the Rams’ schedule is as easy as it could possibly be.

They have their 6 division games, the NFC South (vs. ATL, vs. CAR, @ NO, @ TB), the AFC West (vs. SD, vs. KC, @ DEN, @ OAK), and vs. WAS and @ DET.

Prediction: 6-10

Division: 25:1 – Definitely worth a flyer in a bad division. This will probably sound insane, but if they can beat Arizona in Week 1 and win at Oakland in Week 2, they can get some confidence and start 8-0 heading into their bye. After those first 2 games, they play vs. WAS, vs. SEA, @ DET, vs. SD, @ TB, vs. CAR. Just saying, it’s possible.

4. Seattle – Under 7 (-140) – I foresee bad things in the Pete Carroll era in Seattle. After cutting T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the writing is on the wall that the Seahawks are not going to be a winning football team in 2010. Without Houshmandzadeh and after losing their best offensive lineman (Rob Sims) to the Lions, there’s just not a lot of talent on offense, particularly at the skill positions. The defense isn’t anything to hang your hat on either. The team just isn’t very good – they won 5 and 4 games in the past 2 years and they’re not going to be any better than that this year.

Of course, they have an easy schedule with their 6 division games, the NFC South (vs. ATL, vs. CAR, @ NO, @ TB), the AFC West (vs. SD, vs. KC, @ DEN, @ OAK), vs. NYG and @ CHI. Matt Hasselbeck will struggle or get hurt, Charlie Whitehurst will start some games at quarterback and Pete Carroll will be talking about “growing pains” and how they’re a “young team”. It’s going to be another long year in Seattle. It’s very unlikely that they win 8 games.

Prediction: 5-11

Best Bets:
New England under 9.5 (+130)
Buffalo under 5.5 (-170)
Baltimore over 10 (-130)
Pittsburgh over 9 (+145)
Cincinnati under 8.5 (-120)
Cleveland under 5.5 (+120)
Indianapolis over 11 (+105)
Kansas City over 6.5 (-110)
San Diego under 10.5 (-110)
Denver under 7 (-125)
Seattle under 7 (-140)

Bestest Best Bets:
Buffalo under 5.5 (-170)
Seattle under 7 (-140)

And now, just for fun, here are my 2010 playoff projections:

AFC Playoff Teams
1. Indianapolis
2. Baltimore
3. NY Jets
4. Kansas City
5. Pittsburgh
6. Houston

NFC Playoff Teams
1. New Orleans
2. Dallas
3. Green Bay
4. Arizona
5. Minnesota
6. NY Giants

Wildcard Weekend
NY Jets over Houston
Pittsburgh over Kansas City
Minnesota over Arizona
Green Bay over NY Giants

Divisional Round
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh
Baltimore over NY Jets
New Orleans over Minnesota
Dallas over Green Bay

Conference Championships
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Dallas over New Orleans

Super Bowl
Indianapolis over Dallas

Santana Moss over 3.5 receptions (-150) – In 16 games last year, Moss had at least 4 catches in 13 games. Last week he only had 2, but they will surely try to get him more involved against the Rams.

Sean Ryan will not score a touchdown (-240) – The dude has 13 career catches in 34 games.

Kurt Warner over 2.5 touchdowns plus interceptions (-115) – This went ‘over’ in 12 of 20 games last year and ‘over’ in Week 1. The Cardinals, as always, will throw it a lot in Jacksonville, for better or for worse.

Frank Gore under 3.5 receptions (-125) – Gore hasn’t had 4 catches since Week 8 of the 2008 season. Something about the Singletary regime…

Robert Royal over 3 receptions (-110) – Royal led the Browns in targets in Week 1 with 9. He ended up with 4 catches, and the Browns have very little depth at receiver. Makes sense that Quinn will love his tight end.

Antonio Gates over 4 receptions (even) – Gates is a good bet to have at least 4 receptions in any game, especially now that he’s healthy and Tomlinson isn’t playing.

Randy Moss under 6.5 receptions (even) – Sure, Moss had 12 catches in Week 1, but let’s not over-react to one week. I’m not saying Darrelle Revis will shut down Moss, but he is an elite cover-corner and he did a pretty good job last week against Andre Johnson. Last year, in 16 games, Moss had 7 or more catches only 2 times. Yes, that was with Matt Cassel, but still. In 2007, with Tom Brady, Moss had 7 ore more catches only 6 times in 19 games. Chances are Moss won’t get 7 against Revis and the Jets.

Heath Miller under 4.5 receptions (-120) – It just seems too high. He had 5 catches in only 3 of 14 games last season.

Peyton Manning under 275.5 passing yards (-115) – Manning had over 275 yards in only 4 of 15 games last season. Colts/Dolphins should be a very fast game (lots of short completions, running time off the clock, etc.). No Anthony Gonzalez again so Reggie Wayne will have to rack up 130+ yards again in order for Peyton to reach this high total.

Korn’s YTD player props: 6-3, up $18.37 if I were to bet $10 on each game (20.4% return on investment)

DeSean Jackson over 4 receptions (-105) – Last year, including the playoffs, DeSean Jackson had at least 4 catches in 12 out of 19 games. The Eagles love to throw the ball, they’ll throw the ball plenty on Sunday against the Panthers, and Jackson will be McNabb’s number one receiver this year. Jackson is in line for a huge season this year. He should easily catch at least 4 passes on Sunday.

Eddie Royal first catch under 9.5 yards (-115) – Wouldn’t it make sense for Denver’s first pass to be a short pass to the sideline to Royal in order to give Kyle Orton some confidence on the road? Royal only averaged 10.8 yards per catch last season. If you exclude his 2 longest receptions (93 yards and 59 yards), his average comes down to only 9.3 yards per catch.

Jamal Lewis first carry under 3.5 yards (-140) – The Vikings were the best team in the league against the run last season, giving up only 3.3 yards per carry. They figure to be just as good this season, especially with the Williams Wall eligible to play in Week 1. Lewis averaged only 3.6 yards per carry last season and has looked awful during the preseason. I know this bet only comes down to one carry, but I’m thinking there’s at least a 60% chance that the Vikings stuff Jamal Lewis on Cleveland’s first run of the game.

Owen Daniels over 3.5 receptions (-135) – Out of the 12 games that quarterback Matt Schaub played in last year, Daniels caught at least 4 balls in 9 of them. With starting wide receiver Kevin Walter likely out on Sunday, Daniels should see even more looks. A line of 3.5 is surprisingly low.

Kevin Smith will score a touchdown (+140) – Smith scored 8 touchdowns last season and he’ll see an even larger role this year. There should be plenty of points scored in this game, so I was surprised to see this at only +140.

Ray Rice over 3 receptions (+110) – If the preseason is indication, Ray Rice is poised for a Brian Westbrook type role in the Ravens offense this year. In their third preseason game, Rice had 8 catches for 67 yards. He will be on the field the most out of any Ravens running back, and given Baltimore’s lack of receiving options, Rice looks like a great bet to catch at least 3 passes.

Domenik Hixon under 3.5 receptions (-115) – Who really knows who will step up for the Giants at the wide receiver position? Between Hixon, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, Sinorice Moss, Kevin Boss, and the running backs, Eli Manning figures to spread the ball around plenty, at least early in the season. In 17 games last year, Manning only had more than 20 completions once, so I’d say there’s better than a 50% chance that Hixon doesn’t catch 4 passes against the Redskins on Sunday in what figures to be a very defense-dominated game.

Bernard Berrian will not score a touchdown (-185) – Yes, Berrian scored 7 touchdowns last season, but he’s questionable to even play with a hamstring injury. He hasn’t seen any action with Brett Favre, there are plenty of other receiver options for Minnesota (Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe), and the Vikings will probably focus on running the ball all game against the Browns.

Donald Lee will not score a touchdown (-240) – Jermichael Finley will be the Packers best tight end this season, not Donald Lee.

Good luck this week and be sure to check back every Sunday morning before kick-off!

New England Patriots – Over 11.5 (-160)
The Pats decreased their win total from 16 in 2007 to 11 in 2008. A decrease of at least 3 games results in an increase the following season 70% of the time. They should dominate their division and I only see 2 games in which they might be underdogs – Week 10 at Indianapolis and possibly Week 12 at New Orleans.
KornSports Prediction: 14-2

Pittsburgh Steelers – Over 10.5 (-150)
They’ll go at least 4-2 in the division and at least 3-1 against the AFC West (they play San Diego at home). They will also go at least 2-2 against the NFC North (vs. MIN, vs. GB, @ CHI, @ DET), and their last 2 games are vs. Tennessee and at Miami. I’m not crazy about this on either side, especially with the high cost of betting the over, but they are the defending Super Bowl champs with a great defense, top quarterback, and strong home field advantage. Also, it’s a much easier schedule than last year.
KornSports Prediction: 12-4

San Diego Chargers – Over 10 (-180)
I bet the over in May when it was 9.5 (-140) and wrote about it here. I still like it at 10.
KornSports Prediction: 12-4

Indianapolis Colts – Over 10 (-125)
They’ve won at least 12 games in every season since 2003 (6 years in a row!). The defense looks weak, but doesn’t it look weak every season? Despite the coaching changes, they still have Peyton Manning and his presence alone should be good enough for at least 10 wins.
KornSports Prediction: 11-5

Philadelphia Eagles – Over 9.5 (-160)
I think the Eagles will get to 10 but don’t think it’s worth the high price to bet it mainly because of the tough division plus non-division games at San Diego, at Atlanta, and at Carolina. They should be fine based on their talent and experience, but it will be a very competitive NFC.
KornSports Prediction: 11-5

New York Giants – Under 9.5 (+120)
In the super-competitive NFC East, any weakness can severely hurt your chances at winning 10 games. For the Giants, the losses of Derrick Ward, Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress will without a doubt hurt the offense. I still think there’s a great chance they get to at least 10 wins with their strong defense and strong offensive line, but the under at +120 seems like the smarter bet (the over is at -150).
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

Minnesota Vikings – Under 9.5 (+105)
Minnesota has increased its win total from 6 in 2006 to 8 in 2007 to 10 in 2008. As discussed in my May article, since 2002, only 1 out of 9 teams has increased their win total for three consecutive seasons, meaning history is against the Vikings reaching 11 this year. They face stiff competition in the division from Green Bay and Chicago, and I’m not at all sold on their quarterback or coaching situations. Their rock solid defense and running game will keep them close.
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

Green Bay Packers – Over 9 (-140)
The Packers won 13 games in 2007 and then fell to 6 in 2008. Their defense had a lot of injuries last year and they still lost a lot of close games. Teams that decrease their win total by at least 6 games are more likely than not to increase their win total by 4 the following year. Given a healthier defense and a very strong offense led by the improved Aaron Rodgers, the Packers should win at least 9. I’d take the over because I think it’s more likely that they win 10 or more than 8 or less.
KornSports Prediction: 10-6

New Orleans Saints – Over 9 (-130)
Their offense will continue to roll and their defense figures to be slightly better. I also think Carolina and Tampa Bay took a step back this offseason. They will also benefit this year from finishing in last place (they play the Lions and Rams as a result). They won 8 games last year; there’s no way they don’t improve from that.
KornSports Prediction: 11-5

Dallas Cowboys – Over 9 (-125)
For the same reason the Pats will win at least 12, history says the Cowboys have a 70% chance to win at least 10. I don’t love the Cowboys and I’m not betting it, but I can’t go against such a statistic. There certainly is enough talent on both sides of the ball to get it done.
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

Tennessee Titans – Under 9 (-115)
I bet the under in May when it was 9 (+120) and wrote about it here. I still like it for the same reasons that I wrote about then.
KornSports Prediction: 7-9

Baltimore Ravens – Under 8.5 (+150)
They certainly could win at least 9 but it’s not worth it for the price (-180). Last year they won 11 with a last-place schedule (they won 5 games in 2007). This year they have a second-place schedule which means games against New England and Indianapolis. They also have non-division games at San Diego, at Minnesota, and at Green Bay. Since 2002, of the 19 teams that have increased their win total by at least 5 games, 15 of them (79%) saw their win total decrease by at least 3 games the following season.
KornSports Prediction: 8-8

Chicago Bears – Under 8.5 (+130)
Not worth it to me to take the over at -160. The Bears won 9 last year and 7 the year before. They still face stiff competition in their division from Green Bay and Minnesota. Chicago’s defense may not be as great as it once was, and integrating Cutler into this offense is no guarantee for success, even though the offense has looked great in the preseason. The receivers are not very strong. Cutler did only win 8 games last year for the Broncos in a weak AFC West.
KornSports Prediction: 8-8

Atlanta Falcons – Under 8.5 (even)
Similar to Baltimore, historical evidence projects a ‘back-to-earth’ season for the Falcons, who increased their win total from 4 games in 2007 to 11 in 2008. The evidence suggests a 79% chance they win 8 games maximum. The tougher schedule this year certainly supports that suggestion (AFC East and NFC East, vs. Chicago, at San Francisco this year compared to last year’s schedule of AFC West, NFC North, vs. St. Louis, at Philadelphia). The offense looks great on paper but the defense will prevent them from making the playoffs. They also won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year.
KornSports Prediction: 8-8

Houston Texans – Over 8.5 (-115)
This is a franchise that has never won more than 8 games but I’m jumping on board with those that believe this is the year they finally go over the hump.
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

Arizona Cardinals – Over 8.5 (-115)
Despite going to the Super Bowl last year, the Cardinals only won 9 games. You can believe the ‘Super Bowl loser’ trend or you can believe that Arizona is still the best team in a weak division. I’ll go with the latter.
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

Carolina Panthers – Under 8.5 (-130)
The Panthers haven’t done anything this offseason to get better while Atlanta and New Orleans both appear to have improved. In fact, Carolina’s defense will probably struggle mightily after losing star defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu for the season. Much like Atlanta, Carolina’s schedule will be much more difficult this season, including non-division road games at the Giants, Dallas, Arizona, New England, and the Jets. Carolina increased its win total by 5 games last season, so much like Baltimore and Atlanta, history says there is a 79% chance that they win 9 maximum this year.
KornSports Prediction: 6-10

Seattle Seahawks – Under 8 (+130)
History says Seattle will win at least 8 (they won 10 in 2007 and 4 in 2008), but I’m thinking this team is closer to the 2008 version than the 2007 version. Walter Jones being out for the year is a huge loss.
KornSports Prediction: 7-9

Jacksonville Jaguars – Over 8 (-125)
History says Jacksonville will win at least 9 (they decreased their win total from 10 in 2007 to 4 in 2008). They were hurt majorly by injuries last season, so it wouldn’t be overly surprising to see them return to the level that they played at from 2004-2007 in which they won at least 8 every season. The tough division and lack of an explosive offense remains a concern.
KornSports Prediction: 8-8

Washington Redskins – Over 8 (-120)
I understand how tough the division is, but with the addition of Albert Haynesworth, this defense has a chance to be the best in the league. I also like the fact they play the AFC West and have the last place schedule (vs. St. Louis, @ Detroit). I think there’s a better chance they win 9 or more than they win 7 or less.
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

New York Jets – Under 7.5 (-135)
Similar to Atlanta, Carolina, and Baltimore, due to their 5-game increase in wins last season, history says there’s a 79% chance that they win at most 6 this year. I’d hate to say it, but with a new head coach, a rookie quarterback, and a lackluster receiving corps, the under is probably the way to go.
KornSports Prediction: 7-9

Buffalo Bills – Under 7.5 (-105)
They’ve won 7 games three years in a row and I don’t think there are enough improvements for this team to get to 8-8. The fact that they fired their offensive coordinator less than 10 days before their first game is not a very good sign. The offensive line is in shambles and it’s only a matter of time before something blows up with Terrell Owens, who’s 35 and hasn’t practiced in three weeks.
KornSports Prediction: 6-10

San Francisco 49ers – Under 7 (+115)
They haven’t won more than 7 games since 2002. This could possibly be the year where they surprise and win the division, but I think the under is the safer choice, especially given the prices (over is -145).
KornSports Prediction: 7-9

Cincinnati Bengals – Over 7 (-140)
I bet the over in May when it was 6 (-160) and wrote about it here. Looks like the pick is gaining some momentum as it shot up a whole game. Every year there is a team that surprises and wins 10+ games after winning 5 or less the previous year. Seattle and Jacksonville are popular choices to pull it off this year but I’m going with the Bengals. A healthy Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco, Chris Henry, an improved defense and an easy schedule will do the trick.
KornSports Prediction: 10-6

Miami Dolphins – Under 7 (even)
I bet the under in May when it was 7 (-105) and wrote about it here. Not much has changed and I am sticking with the pick.
KornSports Prediction: 6-10

Cleveland – Under 6.5 (-130)
The fact that Cleveland went from 10 wins in 2007 to only 4 wins in 2008 fits them into the category of ‘more likely than not to increase their win total by at least 4 games’. However, I’m making an exception on this one because I think they’re a distant fourth in their division and they still have a lot of holes on both sides of the ball.
KornSports Prediction: 5-11

Denver – Under 6.5 (-190)
It’s been a really ugly offseason in Denver. The defense is still a mess, as is the quarterback and Brandon Marshall situations. Most importantly, their schedule is brutal. Outside of the 4 games against Kansas City and Oakland and a home game against Cleveland, I expect them to be big underdogs in the rest of their games (NFC East, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. New England, at Baltimore, at Indianapolis, at Cincinnati). Given the current state of the franchise and the talent level, it’s hard for me to chalk up more than 5 wins for this team.
KornSports Prediction: 4-12

Kansas City Chiefs – Under 6 (-115)
I’m pretty sure that this team still isn’t any good (they’ve won 6 games combined in the past 2 seasons), so I’m going to say there’s a better chance they win 5 or less than they win 7 or more.
KornSports Prediction: 5-11

Oakland Raiders – Under 6 (-150)
The rules say that 89% of the time, teams who increase their win total for 2 consecutive years will not increase for a third straight season. Well, Oakland went from 2 in 2006 to 4 in 2007 to 5 in 2008, so they may be exempt from this trend. However, wouldn’t you say they’re still However, wouldn’t you say they’re still one of the worst 8 teams in the league? Every year since 2002, none of the bottom 8 teams won more than 6. So there you go.
KornSports Prediction: 5-11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Under 5.5 (even)
I don’t think they’ll be as bad as many people are predicting, but with 4 games against the NFC East, 4 games against the AFC East, 6 games against the rest of their division, and a game at Seattle and home against Green Bay, it’s hard for me to justify predicting more than 6 wins for this team.
KornSports Prediction: 5-11

St. Louis Rams – Under 5.5 (+130)
The Rams won 5 combined games the past 2 years. I think they will improve with a healthy Steven Jackson and a revamped offensive line but see what I wrote about the Raiders. I still think they’ll be in the bottom fourth of the league, which means it will be highly unlikely they win 7. I’ll take the +130 and take my chances.
KornSports Prediction: 5-11

Detroit Lions – Under 4.5 (even)
They won 0 games last year, do you really think they will win 5 or more this year? They don’t project to be favored in one game this year with the exception of possibly 2 home games vs. St. Louis and Cleveland.
KornSports Prediction: 4-12

Yes, the predicted wins for all 32 teams added up to 256. No need to recount.

Best Bets:
San Diego – Over 10 (-180) (took it at over 9.5 -140)
New Orleans – Over 9 (-130)
Tennessee – Under 9 (-115) (took it at under 9 +120)
Carolina – Under 8.5 (-130)
Cincinnati – Over 7 (-140) (took it at over 6 -160)
Miami – Under 7 (even) (took it at under 7 -105)
Denver – Under 6.5 (-190)

And now, just for fun, my playoff predictions:
AFC Division Winners: New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego
AFC Wildcard: Cincinnati, Houston

NFC Division Winners: Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, Arizona
NFC Wildcard: Minnesota, Dallas

AFC Championship: Pittsburgh over New England
NFC Championship: Philadelphia over New Orleans

Super Bowl: Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

I’ll check back at the end of the year

Quarterbacks
1. Peyton Manning -1.5 touchdown passes vs. Aaron Rodgers (-115) – In 11 NFL seasons, Manning has never missed a game, nor has he never thrown for less than 26 touchdown passes, which is just ridiculous. He’s had at least 27 in each of the last seven seasons. There’s no reason why Manning won’t throw for at least 28 again. I project him to have one of his best statistical seasons this year, throwing for closer to 35 touchdown passes, but 28 should win this bet just fine. Rodgers threw for 28 touchdowns last season in a 6-10 effort. A good number of those touchdown passes came as a result of the Packers trailing in the second half. The Packers should be better than their 6-10 record from last year and have already committed to running the football more this year. Even still, it isn’t easy to throw for 28 touchdowns two seasons in a row. Only four players threw for 28 TDs last year. We all know that Manning will be in the 28-35 range. Who knows for sure about Rodgers, but he should be in the 23-28 range. Also, Rodgers is a bigger injury risk. Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers? I mean, come on. Manning. Easy.

2. Donovan McNabb -300.5 passing yards vs. Ben Roethlisberger (-115) – In Roethlisberger’s five seasons as a starter, the most passing yards he threw in a season was 3,513. Last year, in a full 16 games, he threw for only 3,301 yards. The Steelers are a running team first and foremost and considering they should have the lead late in games for most of the season, Roethlisberger’s numbers should project to be about the same (3,500 yards tops). McNabb, meanwhile, had his best season last year in terms of passing yards with 3,916. McNabb seems to be getting better with age and I think he is in for his finest season yet. He has a plethora of receiving options and the Eagles love to spread the ball around. His big advantage compared to Roethlisberger is the short passes to his running backs (namely, Brian Westbrook). While both players have struggled to stay healthy for a full season recently, they both played 16 games last season and McNabb out-threw him by 600 yards. Over the last 4 seasons, McNabb has averaged 253 yards per game while Roethlisberger has averaged 213, a difference of 640 yards over a 16-game season. And no, I don’t think the signing of Michael Vick will have an impact on McNabb’s passing statistics. McNabb is a great bet here.

3. Drew Brees +4.5 touchdown passes vs. Tom Brady (-115) – In his three seasons on the Saints, beginning with his first, Brees has thrown 26, 28 and 34 touchdown passes, while throwing the most passes for the most yards in the entire league. With the Saints offense returning intact, Brees is a safe bet to throw for another 28+ touchdowns. Brady, meanwhile, in order to win this bet will have to throw for a very minimum of 33 touchdown passes. He’s only thrown for more than 28 once in his career (50 in 2007). Plus, who knows how he’ll respond to his knee injury? Just because Brady threw for 50 in 2007 doesn’t mean he’ll throw for at least 35. Look at Peyton Manning for example. After Manning’s 49-TD season in 2004, his next four seasons were 28, 31, 31, and 27. If Brady throws for 28 touchdowns (much more likely than 40), you’re definitely going to win this bet. Even if Brady throws for 40, you still might win.

4. Tony Romo -0.5 passing yards vs. Philip Rivers (-115) – Rivers threw for a career-high 4,009 passing yards last season in what most people considered an absolutely brilliant season (105.5 QB rating). In the previous two seasons (each full 16 games), he threw for 3,152 and 3,388. I expect Rivers to fall somewhere in between this season, maybe at around 3,700 or 3,800, partially because he racked up a ton of yards last season in games when the Chargers were trailing (there were a lot of them, surprisingly). The Chargers should have more late leads this season, meaning more running and less passing. Additionally, the coaching staff has made it clear that LaDainian Tomlinson will be in line for a lot more carries this season (he had a career-low 292 last season). Romo, meanwhile, threw for 3,448 last season in only 13 games (projects to 4,244 over 16 games), and threw for 4,211 in a full season the year before. Despite the loss of Terrell Owens, the Cowboys still have pretty good receiving options, and they project to throw the ball more than the Chargers. Romo is the bet.

5. Matt Ryan -200.5 passing yards vs. Eli Manning (-115) – Ryan threw for 3,440 yards in his rookie season. That number will be higher in 2009 for a number of reasons, including Ryan’s natural development, the addition of Tony Gonzalez, and the projected increase in passing attempts (he was held back slightly last year as a rookie, and the Falcons will look to shift some of the workload from Michael Turner to Matt Ryan this season). I project Ryan to throw for at least 3,800 yards this season. Manning, meanwhile, has thrown for 3,238, 3,336, 3,244, and 3,762 in his four seasons as a full-time starter. This season, he will not have the luxury of throwing to his two best receivers over the past couple years, Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer. However, this will be slightly offset by a projected increase in passing attempts – part of the reason for Manning’s low passing yardage totals was that the Giants were such a good football team and just ran the ball the whole second half. I don’t think the Giants will be as good this year as they have been the past couple years, which naturally means more passing attempts for Manning. Even still, Ryan has much higher upside this season from a passing yardage perspective, and should, more often than not, exceed Eli’s totals by at least 200 yards.

6. Aaron Rodgers -500.5 passing yards vs. Brett Favre (-115) – Aaron Rodgers has looked awesome in the preseason and I question whether or not Favre can hold up for the entire season. Rodgers should go for at least 3,800 yards (he threw for 4,000 last year). Even if Favre plays in all 16 games, I don’t think he’ll reach 3,300 yards mainly because the Vikings are a run-first, ball-control team. There will be plenty of games where Favre throws for under 200 yards.

7. Mark Sanchez +7.5 touchdown passes vs. Brett Favre (-115) – Even if he plays in all 16 games, I expect Favre to struggle to get to 20 touchdowns this year. If Favre does reach 20, that means Sanchez only needs to get 13 to win this bet.

Running Backs
8. LaDainian Tomlinson +45.5 rushing yards vs. Maurice Jones-Drew (-115) – Tomlinson had a career-low 290 carries last year but the team promises he is in line for a huge season, and LT seems motivated to prove his doubters wrong. Jones-Drew, meanwhile, has never carried the ball more than 200 times in a season, but his carries will obviously go up this year in a more featured role now that Fred Taylor is out of town. But the question is how much? I still have my doubts as to how many carries Jones-Drew will actually receive, but I don’t think he will top 300 carries. He should see plenty of work in the receiving game, but this bet is strictly rushing yards. Also, don’t forget that the Chargers play 6 games against the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos, which will enable Tomlinson to rack up the yards. Bottom line, more carries usually equals more yards. Take Tomlinson.

9. Michael Turner -2.5 rushing touchdowns vs. Chris Johnson (-105) – Turner had 17 rushing touchdowns last year compared to Johnson’s 9. Turner will continue to receive all the goal-line carries, while most of Tennessee’s will go to LenDale White. Plus, Atlanta has a better overall offense, meaning Turner will have more chances. As a bonus, you only have to lay -105. This one is easy.

10. Maurice Jones-Drew -3.5 rushing touchdowns vs. Willie Parker (-105) – This one seemed like a no-brainer to me at first glance, but my confidence has waned. Don’t get me wrong, I still think Jones-Drew is a great bet here, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. In MJD’s 3 seasons, he ran for 13, 9, and 12 touchdowns, while Parker, in 4 seasons as a starter, has rushed for more than 5 TDs only once. MJD will see an increase in carries this season while Parker should probably see a decrease. MJD should continue to receive goal-line carries while Pittsburgh’s should mostly go to Rashard Mendenhall. Parker should still be good for 5 touchdowns, meaning MJD really needs to get at least 9, which he should, but it’s no sure thing.

11. Ryan Grant -42.5 yards vs. Marion Barber (-115) – Like many of the rushing yards props, this one boils down to carries. Grant received 312 last year and projects to be the featured back again this year, facing little competition from backups Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn. Furthermore, the coaching staff has promised a greater focus on running the football this year, which is likely considering the Packers were 6-10 last season. Barber, meanwhile, struggled in a featured role last year (3.7 yards per carry, 238 carries), and will most likely divert back to a part-time back in 2009 by splitting carries with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. Health permitting, Grant should easily win this one.

12. Matt Forte +1.5 rushing touchdowns vs. Steve Slaton (-130) – I would have expected Forte to be the favorite in this bet, but I still think it’s pretty much a toss-up, and not the best value at -130. They should both see a similar number of carries, but Slaton is expected to lose goal-line carries to backup Chris Brown. Slaton would have to score at least 2 more touchdowns than Forte for you to lose this bet. Take Forte.

Wide Receivers
13. Chad Ochocinco -25.5 receiving yards vs. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (-115) – Prior to last year’s injury-plagued season (both for Chad and Carson Palmer), Chad’s five previous seasons looked like this in terms of receiving yards: 1440, 1369, 1432, 1274, and 1355. Now, both Ochocinco and Palmer are healthy and Houshmandzadeh is out of town, and despite the addition of Laveraneus Coles, Ochocinco will be the number one guy this year. Houshmandzadeh, meanwhile, at 32 years of age, moves to Seattle, to be Matt Hasselbeck’s #1 target. Despite a few great seasons from Housh, he has never posted a 1200-yard season. It’s never easy learning a new system, plus he has a history of injury problems and has a career average of 11.4 yards per catch which projects to continue in Seattle. I would expect Chad and Housh to post similar reception totals, but Housh’s yards-per-catch won’t come close to Chad’s.

14. Reggie Wayne +5.5 touchdowns vs. Randy Moss (-125) – Wayne only had 6 touchdowns last year but had 9 and 10 in the two years prior. As the clear-cut number one receiver in Peyton Manning’s offense, you have to figure the touchdowns will come. I would expect him to score 10 touchdowns this season, meaning Moss would need to score 16 in order for you to lose this bet. Even if Wayne only scores 8, Moss would still need to score 14, which is not easy to do. Sure, Moss can do it, but if I had to make an educated guess, I would take the under for Moss. Go with Wayne here.

15. Calvin Johnson +2.5 receiving touchdowns vs. Larry Fitzgerald (even) – Calvin scored 12 touchdowns last year. He’s entering his third season and is already clearly one of the top receivers in the league. He proved last year he can catch everything and he will continue to receive all the red-zone looks, and although defenses know this, he proved to be unstoppable. Obviously, Fitzgerald is great, and probably the best receiver in football, but in his best season last year, he still only had 12 touchdowns, which was a career-high. You have to think that Calvin will score at least 10 touchdowns again this year, and most likely will score 12 again. Would you feel comfortable hoping that Fitzgerald scores 15 touchdowns in order for you to win this bet? I won’t. Take Calvin and take the 2.5.

16. Greg Jennings +50.5 receiving yards vs. Wes Welker (-115) – Welker caught 111 and 112 balls in each of the last two years, but has only averaged 10.5 yards per catch (1,176 yards). Jennings, meanwhile, caught 80 balls last year for 1,292 yards. While Welker will continue to catch his fare share of passes, I would feel more comfortable betting that Jennings will increase his catches as opposed to Welker increasing his catches or his yards per catch. I’ll take the 50 yards and go with Jennings. Finally, Welker is a little banged up and is now questionable for Week 1.

17. Anquan Boldin +275.5 yards vs. Larry Fitzgerald (-115) – Fitzgerald and Boldin are a lot closer than people may think, mainly because of Fitzgerald’s outstanding postseason last year. Last year, Fitzgerald had 1,431 in 16 games while Boldin had 1,038 in 12 games (1,384 over 16 games). Extrapolating Boldin’s statistics would also most likely decrease Fitzgerald’s total yardage. Over the last 3 seasons, Fitzgerald has averaged 86 yards per game (1,377 per 16 games) while Boldin has averaged 77 yards per game (1,238 per 16 games), a difference of 139 yards. 275 is just too high for me.

18. Randy Moss -3.5 receiving touchdowns vs. Wes Welker (-115) – This one doesn’t make any sense to me. Welker had 3 touchdowns last year (Moss had 11). In 2007, Welker had 8 touchdowns (Moss had 23). Moss has been lighting it up in the preseason while Welker is injured and questionable for Week 1. Go big on this one.

19. Braylon Edwards +2.5 receiving touchdowns vs. Hines Ward (-115) – The Steelers are a run-first team and have plenty of receiving targets when they do throw (Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller, Limas Sweed, Shaun McDonald). Ward is 33 years old and has scored 7, 7 and 6 touchdowns the last 3 seasons. Edwards, meanwhile, is the Browns’ only real threat at receiver, and is just one season removed from scoring 16 touchdowns. Let’s be conservative and say that Braylon scores 6 touchdowns. Do you really think Ward can get to 9?

20. Randy Moss -125.5 receiving yards vs. Terrell Owens (-115) – Moss is in a much better situation in New England with Tom Brady than T.O. is in Buffalo with Trent Edwards. Moss (32 years old) has looked great this preseason while T.O. (turns 36 in December) has been out for a few weeks with a toe injury.

Best NBA Player
Dwight Howard, +600
Dwyane Wade, +600
Kobe Bryant, +110
LeBron James, +110

It is a near-certainty that either Kobe Bryant or LeBron James wins this award. Plain and simple, they are the 2 best players in the NBA (LeBron won the Regular Season MVP and Kobe won the Finals MVP), and they are also the 2 most popular and most widely recognized NBA players world-wide. The fact that they are both a ‘plus’ line means that you can bet them both separately. Let’s say you bet $100 on each – you’ll lose $100 on one bet and win $110 on the other bet. In other words, you’d be risking $200 to win $10, and you’d essentially be making the following bet: “Either LeBron or Kobe will win this award, -2000”. At -2000, you’d have to be 95% confident that you’ll win the bet. I am 99.9% confident that one of these guys will win the bet. It may not seem worth it to lock up this money for a couple weeks, but to me it’s easy money, and you’ll win your money back with interest in time to start making some more NFL bets.

Bets:
-Kobe Bryant, +110
-LeBron James, +110

Best NFL Player
Adrian Peterson, +250
James Harrison, +250
Kurt Warner, +250
Larry Fitzgerald, +400
Peyton Manning, +400

This award appears to be wide open, however, I don’t think that James Harrison or Kurt Warner have a chance at winning. A defensive player has never won the ‘Best NFL Player’ award, and it’s not like Harrison is that dominant or that recognizable that fans would vote for him over the more popular offensive players. As far as Kurt Warner is concerned, most people voting for a quarterback would vote for Peyton Manning over him (Manning was the MVP), and I would think if someone were to vote for an Arizona Cardinal, it would be Larry Fitzgerald (a superstar in the playoffs and arguably the best and most exciting receiver in the NFL), not Warner. That leaves Peterson (+250), Fitzgerald (+400) and Manning (+400). Do you see where I’m getting at? I’m going to take all 3, and as long as one of them wins, I’m up money. Allow me to illustrate: Let’s say I bet $50 on each (risking $150 total). If Peterson wins, I win $125 on my Peterson bet but lose $50 on each of my 2 other bets, for a net gain of $25. If Manning or Fitzgerald wins, I have a net gain of $100. In this scenario, I would be risking $150 to win either $25, $100 or $100, and the only way I lose the $150 is if James Harrison or Kurt Warner wins this award, both of which appear to be unlikely outcomes.

Bets:
-Adrian Peterson, +250
-Larry Fitzgerald, +400
-Peyton Manning, +400

Best NHL Player
Alexander Ovechkin, +180
Evgeni Malkin, +300
Pavel Datsyuk, +600
Sidney Crosby, even

I don’t know much about hockey, but I do know that Sidney Crosby won this award in each of the last 2 years. This year, he was arguably the best player in the league again, and was the best player on the team that won the Stanley Cup, so I’m thinking he has a greater-than-50% chance to win this award.

Bets:
-Sidney Crosby, even

Best Male Athlete
Jimmie Johnson, +3000
Kobe Bryant, +400
LeBron James, +400
Michael Phelps, -400

I think almost every single American voter will vote for Michael Phelps in this category, partially because it’s too difficult to choose between LeBron James and Kobe Bryant. If the minus line goes up any higher, I would hesitate, but at -400, I think you’re still getting pretty good value.

Bets
-Michael Phelps, -400

Others I considered but did not take (yet):
-Matt Ryan – Best breakthrough athlete (even), vs. Derrick Rose, Evan Longoria, Shawn Johnson
-Michael Phelps, Best record-breaking performance (-1000), vs. Larry Fitzgerald, Phil Jackson, Usain Bolt
-Rafael Nadal (+125) OR Usain Bolt (+200) (or both), Best international male athlete, vs. Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Pau Gasol

Let’s go fans, now it’s up to you!

 All prop bets I have made, in order of most confident to least confident:

1. Jonny Flynn will be a lottery pick (-600)
2. Tyler Hansbrough will be picked before Chase Budinger (-300)
3. Over 5.5 ACC players selected in the first round (-160)
4. Under 6.5 Big East players selected in first round (+200)
5. DeJuan Blair will not be a lottery pick (+120)
6. Exactly 3 UNC players will be selected in the first round (-200)
7. Hasheem Thabeet will be the third pick (+250)
8. DeMar Derozan will not be a top 10 pick (even)

 Enjoy the draft tonight.

Demar Derozan draft position OVER 10.5 (even) – In other words, I am betting at even odds that Derozan will not be a Top-10 pick. The only team that may seriously consider him in the top 10 is Toronto at #9 because they desperately need an athletic wing. However, their goal should be to do what they can to convince Chris Bosh to stay in Toronto after this season, and I’m not sure they think that selecting such a raw talent who is only 19 years old is the answer. Golden State may shock everyone and pick him at 7 and Milwaukee may also pull the trigger at #10, but I think the odds are that Derozan falls out of the Top 10. Blake Griffin, Hasheem Thabeet, James Harden, Ricky Rubio, Tyreke Evans, and Stephen Curry are the 6 guys that are essentially locks to go in the top 10. Jonny Flynn and Jordan Hill appear to be very safe bets as well. After that, it really is a crapshoot between Derozan, Terence Williams, Jrue Holiday, James Johnson, Earl Clark, Brandon Jennings, Gerald Henderson, and Ty Lawson. Again, given the near certainty of the top 8 guys, and the uncertainty of the final 2 spots, the ‘over’ in this bet appears to be the play.

Jonny Flynn will be a lottery pick (-600) – This may be an opportunity to make some quick easy money at a reasonable price. Flynn is rumored to be Sacramento’s top choice at #4. If the Kings pass on him, he could then be selected by the Timberwolves at #5 or #6. If he’s still available at #8, I think the Knicks would select him assuming that Stephen Curry is off the board. If Flynn continues to fall, Milwaukee at #10 is probably his basement, but Indiana or Phoenix at #13 and #14, respectively, may snatch him up if he somehow falls to them. Of course, if he still is available past #10, a team may trade up to select him. I haven’t taken this yet because you do need to be 85% sure that he’ll be a top-14 pick, and this draft seems to be extremely difficult to predict. I’ll let you know what I decide to do, however, if you wait too long, the price may go up.

KornSports 2009 Mock Draft coming tomorrow.