NFL 2009 – Week 2 Player Props – Best Bets

After going 6-3 last week, I have another 9 for you in Week 2.

Santana Moss over 3.5 receptions (-150) – In 16 games last year, Moss had at least 4 catches in 13 games. Last week he only had 2, but they will surely try to get him more involved against the Rams.

Sean Ryan will not score a touchdown (-240) – The dude has 13 career catches in 34 games.

Kurt Warner over 2.5 touchdowns plus interceptions (-115) – This went ‘over’ in 12 of 20 games last year and ‘over’ in Week 1. The Cardinals, as always, will throw it a lot in Jacksonville, for better or for worse.

Frank Gore under 3.5 receptions (-125) – Gore hasn’t had 4 catches since Week 8 of the 2008 season. Something about the Singletary regime…

Robert Royal over 3 receptions (-110) – Royal led the Browns in targets in Week 1 with 9. He ended up with 4 catches, and the Browns have very little depth at receiver. Makes sense that Quinn will love his tight end.

Antonio Gates over 4 receptions (even) – Gates is a good bet to have at least 4 receptions in any game, especially now that he’s healthy and Tomlinson isn’t playing.

Randy Moss under 6.5 receptions (even) – Sure, Moss had 12 catches in Week 1, but let’s not over-react to one week. I’m not saying Darrelle Revis will shut down Moss, but he is an elite cover-corner and he did a pretty good job last week against Andre Johnson. Last year, in 16 games, Moss had 7 or more catches only 2 times. Yes, that was with Matt Cassel, but still. In 2007, with Tom Brady, Moss had 7 ore more catches only 6 times in 19 games. Chances are Moss won’t get 7 against Revis and the Jets.

Heath Miller under 4.5 receptions (-120) – It just seems too high. He had 5 catches in only 3 of 14 games last season.

Peyton Manning under 275.5 passing yards (-115) – Manning had over 275 yards in only 4 of 15 games last season. Colts/Dolphins should be a very fast game (lots of short completions, running time off the clock, etc.). No Anthony Gonzalez again so Reggie Wayne will have to rack up 130+ yards again in order for Peyton to reach this high total.

Korn’s YTD player props: 6-3, up $18.37 if I were to bet $10 on each game (20.4% return on investment)

NFL 2009 – Week 1 Player Props – Best Bets

Those who followed me each week last year know that I was 69-34 on my player props which resulted in a 14.8% return on investment assuming you wagered the same amount on each prop. It’s only Week 1 but I see 9 bets that I like.

DeSean Jackson over 4 receptions (-105) – Last year, including the playoffs, DeSean Jackson had at least 4 catches in 12 out of 19 games. The Eagles love to throw the ball, they’ll throw the ball plenty on Sunday against the Panthers, and Jackson will be McNabb’s number one receiver this year. Jackson is in line for a huge season this year. He should easily catch at least 4 passes on Sunday.

Eddie Royal first catch under 9.5 yards (-115) – Wouldn’t it make sense for Denver’s first pass to be a short pass to the sideline to Royal in order to give Kyle Orton some confidence on the road? Royal only averaged 10.8 yards per catch last season. If you exclude his 2 longest receptions (93 yards and 59 yards), his average comes down to only 9.3 yards per catch.

Jamal Lewis first carry under 3.5 yards (-140) – The Vikings were the best team in the league against the run last season, giving up only 3.3 yards per carry. They figure to be just as good this season, especially with the Williams Wall eligible to play in Week 1. Lewis averaged only 3.6 yards per carry last season and has looked awful during the preseason. I know this bet only comes down to one carry, but I’m thinking there’s at least a 60% chance that the Vikings stuff Jamal Lewis on Cleveland’s first run of the game.

Owen Daniels over 3.5 receptions (-135) – Out of the 12 games that quarterback Matt Schaub played in last year, Daniels caught at least 4 balls in 9 of them. With starting wide receiver Kevin Walter likely out on Sunday, Daniels should see even more looks. A line of 3.5 is surprisingly low.

Kevin Smith will score a touchdown (+140) – Smith scored 8 touchdowns last season and he’ll see an even larger role this year. There should be plenty of points scored in this game, so I was surprised to see this at only +140.

Ray Rice over 3 receptions (+110) – If the preseason is indication, Ray Rice is poised for a Brian Westbrook type role in the Ravens offense this year. In their third preseason game, Rice had 8 catches for 67 yards. He will be on the field the most out of any Ravens running back, and given Baltimore’s lack of receiving options, Rice looks like a great bet to catch at least 3 passes.

Domenik Hixon under 3.5 receptions (-115) – Who really knows who will step up for the Giants at the wide receiver position? Between Hixon, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, Sinorice Moss, Kevin Boss, and the running backs, Eli Manning figures to spread the ball around plenty, at least early in the season. In 17 games last year, Manning only had more than 20 completions once, so I’d say there’s better than a 50% chance that Hixon doesn’t catch 4 passes against the Redskins on Sunday in what figures to be a very defense-dominated game.

Bernard Berrian will not score a touchdown (-185) – Yes, Berrian scored 7 touchdowns last season, but he’s questionable to even play with a hamstring injury. He hasn’t seen any action with Brett Favre, there are plenty of other receiver options for Minnesota (Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe), and the Vikings will probably focus on running the ball all game against the Browns.

Donald Lee will not score a touchdown (-240) – Jermichael Finley will be the Packers best tight end this season, not Donald Lee.

Good luck this week and be sure to check back every Sunday morning before kick-off!