Last year I went 8-2-1 on my best bets for a return on investment of 50% assuming the same amount wagered on each best bet. For the 2009 season, I was 5-1-1 with an ROI of 38%. There should be links to the side if you want to see the 2010 and 2009 articles.
For the 2011 season, all odds are as of August 29, 2011. Here are my best bets:
- New England – Over 11.5 (-110)
- Miami – Under 7.5 (-130)
- Pittsburgh – Over 10.5 (-130)
- Cleveland – Under 7 (-110)
- Jacksonville – Under 6.5 (-110)
- Oakland – Under 6.5 (-130)
- New Orleans – Over 10 (-150)
- Tampa Bay – Under 8 (-125)
Write-ups for all 32 teams follow.
AFC East
- 1. New England – Over 11.5 (-110) **BEST BET**
History
The Patriots were dominant last year, finishing 14-2, scoring over 30 11 times, winning by double digits 9 times and winning by 20+ 7 times. They have won at least 10 games in 8 consecutive seasons, including at least 14 in 4 of the last 8.
Offense
They bring back all their main components and added some new toys in Chad Ochocinco and rookie running backs Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley.
Defense
The defense is not elite but there is plenty of talent with their best players Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung all returning. Plus, they’ll get back Leigh Bodden who missed all of last season, and they added Albert Haynesworth, Shaun Ellis and Andre Carter to the defensive line.
Schedule
In addition to the 6 division games, they play the weak AFC West (vs. SD, vs. KC, @ DEN, @ OAK), the NFC East (vs. DAL, vs. NYG, @ PHI, @ WAS) and vs. IND and @ PIT. They should start 6-0 (@ MIA, vs. SD, @ BUF, @ OAK, vs. NYJ, vs. DAL) and then they have the bye week to prepare for their road game at Pittsburgh.
Overall
New England projects to be favored in every game this season with the possible exceptions of road games at Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Given that they’ve won 12+ games in 5 of the past 8 years, and their team is as loaded as ever, this is an easy bet.
Prediction: 14-2
- 2. New York Jets – Over 10 (-120)
History
The Jets won 11 games last season and 9 games in 2009 while reaching the AFC championship game in each season. Other than the 45-3 blowout at the hands of the Patriots on Monday Night Football, all of the Jets losses were very winnable games, losing by 1, 4, 4 and 9. The same thing happened in 2009 when 6 of their 7 losses were very winnable.
Offense
Mark Sanchez should continue to improve in his third season, they have a very good offensive line and rushing attack plus added a new red-zone target in Plaxico Burress to play alongside star receiver Santonio Holmes.
Defense
Their defense should be even better this season as they bring back essentially the same unit as last season, plus they drafted two defensive linemen with their first two draft picks.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the weak AFC West (vs. SD, vs. KC, @ DEN, @ OAK), the NFC East (vs. DAL, vs. NYG, @ PHI, @ WAS) and vs. JAC and @ BAL.
Overall
Given their elite defense, improving offense, good coaching and continuity from last season, it is more likely that the Jets win 11 or more than 9 or less. However, with 2 games against the Patriots, they may only finish 3-3 in the division. Road games at Philadelphia and Baltimore will also prove difficult. The schedule may make it difficult for the Jets to do better than 11 wins, but good teams usually find ways to win games even against good teams. The Jets are a good team.
Prediction: 10-6
- 3. Buffalo – Under 5.5 (+115)
History
The Bills finished 4-12 last season after winning 6 the year before and 7 in each of the three years prior. Despite their 4-12 record, the Bills were a very tough out for most of the year, particularly in their 3 overtime losses at Baltimore, at Kansas City and vs. the Steelers (the Stevie Johnson drop game). They also had a 3-point defeat at the hands of the Bears in regulation which could have gone either way. However, they did have 5 losses by 20 or more.
Offense
The Bills have one of the least talented offenses in the league, with a bottom-10 quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick), a bottom-10 receiving corps, and an unimpressive offensive line. However, they do bring just about everyone back with the minor exception of Lee Evans. They did add Brad Smith who should provide some flexibility in running the wildcat and will help in special teams.
Defense
Their defense also appears to be short on talent, and they lost two of their better players in Paul Posluszny and Donte Whitner. They did draft potential stud defensive lineman Marcell Dareus with the third overall pick.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC West (vs. DEN, vs. OAK, @ SD, @ KC), the NFC East (vs. PHI, vs. WAS, @ DAL, @ NYG) and vs. TEN and @ CIN.
Overall
There is not a lot of talent on this roster and they will likely be out of it by Thanksgiving after 3 consecutive road games at Dallas, Miami and the Jets in weeks 10-12. However, I would proceed with caution given their continuity, relatively easy schedule and potential chip on their shoulder after several close losses last season. At the end of the day, the lack of talent will offset these intangibles and the Bills will win 5 or less.
Prediction: 5-11
- 4. Miami – Under 7.5 (-130) **BEST BET**
History
The Dolphins were 7-9 last season and they were fortunate to win at Minnesota (Week 2 – Favre threw 3 interceptions and AP was stopped at the goal line on the last play), at Green Bay (Week 6 – Rodgers’ first game back from a concussion, Clay Mathews did not play) and Week 8 at Cincinnati (Carson Palmer threw an interception for a touchdown). The year before, in 2009, they also finished 7-9, but their victories were by margins of 4, 5, 2, 7, 1, 4, and 28 (vs. Buffalo). In 2008, they won 11 games against the league’s easiest schedule that year, which included several close victories against bad teams. The year before that, they were 1-15.
Offense
They bring back Chad Henne as the starter despite openly trying to replace him during the offseason. The fans even booed him at training camp. This probably won’t end well. The guy that may replace him during the season, Matt Moore, is even worse. There is some talent on offense, including all-pro left tackle Jake Long, wide receiver Brandon Marshall, and running backs Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush.
Defense
They have a pretty strong defense led by nose tackle Paul Soliai, linebackers Cameron Wake and Karlos Dansby, safety Yeremiah Bell, and a very strong cornerback tandem of Vontae Davis and Sean Smith.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC West (vs. DEN, vs. OAK, @ SD, @ KC), the NFC East (vs. PHI, vs. WAS, @ DAL, @ NYG) and vs. HOU and @ CLE.
Overall
The Dolphins will likely struggle out of the gate (vs. NE, vs. HOU, @ CLE, @ SD) and at best stand at 1-3 before their bye week. 3 of their next 4 after the bye week include road games at NYJ, NYG, and KC. Despite some easier games later on, they will most likely be out of it by mid-November, Chad Henne will be benched, and the media will question Tony Sparano’s job security. Even if they win the games they’re supposed to win, they have a brutal last 4 vs. PHI, @ BUF, @ NE and vs. NYJ. They have a good defense and a couple of talented players on offense, but it would be surprising to see them win 8 games this year considering the question marks on offense and the tough schedule out of the gate with the lame-duck head coach.
Prediction: 5-11
AFC North
- 1. Pittsburgh – Over 10.5 (-130) **BEST BET**
History
The Steelers won 12 games last year. The year before, they won 9 games (Troy Polamalu missed 11 games) and their 7 losses were by 3, 3, 6, 3, 3, 3 and 7. In 2008, they won 12 games.
Offense
The Steelers feature an elite quarterback and solid young receivers who should be better this year than last year (other than Hines Ward). Their offensive line is still below average, but center Maurkice Pouncey is a stud, and they get right tackle Willie Colon back after he missed all of 2010 with a torn Achilles. The bottom line is that nothing has changed offensively for the Steelers other than the return of Colon.
Defense
The Steelers still have one of the best defenses in the league, if not the best. Like the offense, not much has changed. The front seven is absolutely loaded, and their secondary will get by as long as Polamalu can stay on the field.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC South (vs. TEN, vs. JAC, @ IND, @ HOU), the NFC West (vs. STL, vs. SEA, @ SF, @ ARI) and vs. NE and @ KC. They figure to be favorites in all but 2 or maybe 3 games (@ IND, @ BAL, vs. NE). They have a difficult start to the season, with 3 of their first 4 games on the road at Baltimore, Indianapolis, and Houston. But that may be a blessing in disguise as Pittsburgh’s continuity may benefit them early on in the season. They should be heavy favorites in each of their final 8 games – @ CIN, @ KC, vs. CIN, vs. CLE, @ SF, vs. STL, @ CLE. I’ve never seen such an easy slate of games.
Overall
There have been at least 4 teams to win at least 12 games in every season over the last 8 years. When you combine the fact that the defending AFC Champions return just about everyone, including their strong coaching staff, elite defense and elite quarterback, with the super-easy schedule, the Steelers figure to be one of those 4 teams.
Prediction: 13-3
- 2. Baltimore – Over 10 (-110)
History
The Ravens won 12 games last year, 9 the year before, and 11 the year before that. They could have won all 4 of their losses – Week 2 (@ CIN by 5), Week 6 @ NE (by 3 in OT), Week 10 (@ ATL by 5) and Week 13 (vs. PIT by 3). Even in 2009, of their 7 losses, they should have won 5. They could have easily finished with at least 13 wins in each of the past 2 seasons.
Offense
They actually lost a lot of valuable players on offense, including Todd Heap, Derrick Mason, Jared Gaither, Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain. They upgraded at fullback from McClain to Vonta Leach, and they hope the loss of McGahee won’t be as significant once they signed Ricky Williams. Joe Flacco, Ray Rice and the offensive line are all good, but none are elite, and the receiving group is below average. Overall, the offense may be closer to the middle of the pack this year, especially considering some of the turnover.
Defense
Their defense is not as good as Pittsburgh’s, but it still figures to again be one of the best in the league, featuring studs Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs and Jarret Johnson; and the ageless Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC South (vs. IND, vs. HOU, @ JAC, @ TEN), the NFC West (vs. ARI, vs. SF, @ STL, @ SEA) and vs. NYJ and @ SD. Similar to the Steelers, they have an easy schedule since they play the NFC West. However, they have the more difficult AFC West game at San Diego compared to the Steelers who are at Kansas City.
Overall
While the Ravens may have lost some offensive talent from last year and may be getting old defensively, that will be more than offset by the super-easy schedule, the expected improvement from Flacco, and the fact that they appear to have been unlucky in each of the past 2 seasons, suggesting they could have been coming off back-to-back 13-win seasons. The turnover on offense is what’s holding me back here.
Prediction: 10-6
- 3. Cleveland – Under 7 (-110) **BEST BET**
History
Cleveland won 5 games last year, 5 in 2009 and 4 in 2008. They flukishly won 10 games in 2007 (the Derek Anderson season) and won 6 or less in each of the 4 years prior dating back to 2003. Of Cleveland’s 5 wins last year, 3 of them were by 3 or less and 1 against the Saints was mainly due to 4 Drew Brees interceptions, 2 of which were returned for touchdowns. They lost their last 4 of last season, including losses to Buffalo and Cincinnati and getting pounded by the Steelers. In 2009, they started 1-11 before winning their last 4 in meaningless fashion.
Offense
They bring back essentially the same offense as last year, which isn’t a good thing as they feature one of the worst receiving corps, an average (at best) offensive line, a young and inconsistent quarterback (Colt McCoy) and an over-worked running back (Peyton Hillis) who slowed down considerably at the end of last season and could suffer from the Madden jinx this year.
Defense
The Browns lost their defensive coordinator (Rob Ryan) and are switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 in a shortened offseason. They also don’t have a very good collection of talent on defense other than second-year cornerback Joe Haden.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC South (vs. TEN, vs. JAC, @ IND, @ HOU), the NFC West (vs. STL, vs. SEA, @ SF, @ ARI) and vs. MIA and @ OAK. Other than the 4 games against BAL and PIT and road games at IND and HOU, it’s not an overly difficult schedule.
Overall
The talent suggests 6 or less wins while the schedule suggests 7 or more wins. In order to get to 7, they’ll have to start 6-5 or better, as their final 5 games are brutal and they would be fortunate to win 1 of them (vs. BAL, @ PIT, @ ARI, @ BAL, vs. PIT). Getting off to a quick start may prove difficult however given their lack of overall talent, history of losing and significant high-level changes (new head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, defensive scheme), I would say the under is the way to go.
Prediction: 6-10
- 4. Cincinnati – Under 5.5 (-155)
History
The Bengals won 4 games last year, 10 the year before, and 4 the year before that. Only 4 of their losses last year were by more than 8 points, and several of their losses came as a result of Carson Palmer throwing a game-clinching interception returned for a touchdown. On the other hand, 2 of their 4 wins were by 5 or less and could have gone either way. In 2009, despite winning 10 games, 9 of those wins were by 10 points or less and they had one of the easiest schedules that year.
Offense
On paper, their starting lineup includes a rookie quarterback drafted in the 2nd round, a below average running back in Cedric Benson and a group of no-name receivers. They also have a new offensive coordinator. However, the entire offensive line returns, and they may be motivated to block for someone other than Carson Palmer. Plus, the loss of Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco removes the constant distractions and results in the opportunity to develop some of their young and talented receivers (A.J. Green, Jermaine Gresham, Jordan Shipley, Jerome Simpson).
Defense
Despite losing star cornerback Jonathan Joseph to Houston, they still feature one of the best cornerback tandems with Leon Hall and Nate Clements. They also have a really solid group of linebackers with Rey Maualuga, Keith Rivers and the newly signed Manny Lawson. The defensive line is also solid.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC South (vs. IND, vs. HOU, @ JAC, @ TEN), the NFC West (vs. ARI, vs. SF, @ STL, @ SEA) and vs. BUF and @ DEN. There are plenty of winnable games on the schedule with matchups against the NFC West, vs. BUF, vs. JAC, @ DEN, @ TEN and 2 against CLE.
Overall
There is the potential for everything to go right, given the easy schedule, solid defense, solid offensive line and history of teams exceeding expectations after dropping 6+ wins from the prior year (Bengals went from 10 to 4. Half go on to increase their win total by at least 4 the following year). It is entirely possible that losing Carson Palmer, Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco is a blessing in disguise. However, the offense should struggle mightily to score points, and the defense isn’t good enough to single-handedly beat many of the teams on the schedule. It will almost certainly be another down year in Cincinnati.
Prediction: 5-11
AFC South
- 1. Indianapolis – Over 9.5 (-155) **Note** – Line currently OFF due to Peyton Manning’s uncertain status
History
The Colts won 10 games last year, down from 14 the year before. Prior to last season, Indianapolis had won at least 12 games in 7 consecutive seasons, when they went 89-23 (79.4%) including 5 losses in meaningless games in Weeks 16 and 17. Four of their losses last year were by 3 points or less and they had significant injuries on offense throughout the season.
Offense
As long as Peyton Manning is on the field, this will easily be one of the top 5 offenses again, as they get Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Joseph Addai back from injuries, and they drafted 2 offensive linemen in the first 2 rounds of the draft.
Defense
The defense will be bad again, especially against the run, but their defensive line could be really solid as they bring back Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis at defensive end, and they rolled the dice in free agency on Jamaal Anderson and Tommie Harris.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC North (vs. PIT, vs. CLE, @ CIN, @ BAL), the NFC South (vs. ATL, vs. CAR, @ NO, @ TB) and vs. KC and @ NE.
Overall
The Colts have won at least 10 games in 9 consecutive seasons, and the only reason they won’t do it again this year is if Peyton Manning misses games. Remember, they should have gone 16-0 two years ago if they didn’t rest their starters in the final 2 weeks.
Prediction: 11-5
- 2. Houston – Over 9 (-170)
History
The Texans fell to 6-10 last year after winning 9 the previous season. They fell apart after starting 4-2, including close losses in Jacksonville (the hail mary game), at the Jets (blew the game in the fourth quarter), an overtime loss vs. Baltimore, and a 1-point loss at Denver (blew a 13-point lead vs. Tim Tebow).
Offense
This is and will continue to be one of the best offenses in the league. They lost star fullback Vonta Leach, but they bring back their entire offensive line and all skill positions, including Owen Daniels who missed most of last season with injuries. The continuity on offense should be huge, especially given the shortened offseason.
Defense
Houston’s secondary has been miserable for years, but they signed star cornerback Jonathan Joseph and safety Danieal Manning, plus 2010 first round pick Kareem Jackson is in his second season and should be much improved as the second cornerback, rather than the number one as he was as a rookie. They bring back solid players in Mario Williams, Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans (missed most of last season), plus they spent all of their early draft picks on defense, including promising first round defensive end J.J. Watt. Finally, they bring in a proven defensive coordinator in Wade Philips. Bottom line is that this defense figures to be much improved.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC North (vs. PIT, vs. CLE, @ CIN, @ BAL), the NFC South (vs. ATL, vs. CAR, @ NO, @ TB) and vs. OAK and @ MIA. They have the same schedule as the Colts, but rather than vs. KC and @ NE, the Texans are vs. OAK and @ MIA. The schedule appears rather difficult to start the season, with 4 of their first 6 games vs. IND, @ NO, vs. PIT and @ BAL.
Overall
With all the talent and continuity on offense, and all the improvements made on defense, there are no excuses this year. They should win more than half their games, but I wouldn’t go crazy here as the price is very high.
Prediction: 10-6
- 3. Tennessee – Under 6.5 (even)
History
The Titans started 5-2 last year before falling apart and lost 8 of their last 9. They finished 6-10 after going 8-8 last year and 13-3 in 2009.
Offense
Chris Johnson is arguably the best running back in the league and they bring back their entire offensive line, so there is some hope, even though the receivers are mediocre, and they’ll be led by an over-the-hill quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck.
Defense
The Titans could have one of the worst defenses in the league this year. They weren’t great last year, and they lost their 2 best players in Jason Babin and Stephen Tulloch.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC North (vs. CIN, vs. BAL, @ PIT, @ CLE), the NFC South (vs. NO, vs. TB, @ ATL, @ CAR) and vs. DEN and @ BUF.
Overall
They lost their head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and 2 best defensive players. They brought in an old bottom-tier quarterback and their best player is unhappy with his contract situation. They have one of the worst defenses in the league in terms of talent. They are just keeping the seat warm for Jake Locker at this point.
Prediction: 5-11
- 4. Jacksonville – Under 6.5 (-110) **BEST BET**
History
The Jags won 8 games last year after winning 7 the year before and 5 in 2009. Of their 8 wins last year, 4 of them could be considered lucky, especially vs. IND (Week 4 – made 59-yard field goal as time expired), vs. HOU (Week 10 – hail mary game), vs. CLE (Week 11 – game-winning drive with 1 minute left in ugly game) and vs. OAK (Week 14 – could have gone either way). 5 of their 8 losses, meanwhile, were by 17 or more.
Offense
They have one of the worst starting quarterbacks (David Garrard) and receiving corps (Mike Thomas and Jason Hill?). Their best player, Maurice Jones-Drew, is coming off of knee surgery.
Defense
The defense is probably below average, but they should be better this season after adding Paul Posluszny, Dawan Landry, Matt Roth and Clint Session in the offseason.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC North (vs. CIN, vs. BAL, @ PIT, @ CLE), the NFC South (vs. NO, vs. TB, @ ATL, @ CAR) and vs. SD and @ NYJ. They screwed themselves by finishing second in the division last year, resulting in extremely difficult flex games against the Chargers and Jets.
Overall
Talent-wise, the Jags are a 4th place caliber team going up against a 1st place caliber schedule. They were lucky to win 8 games last year and they will fall back to the 5-win range in 2011. Rookie Blaine Gabbert will make a few starts as soon as things start going wrong, which will be at the latest Week 11 after their 5-game stretch @ PIT, vs. BAL, @ HOU, @ IND, @ CLE. This will most likely be Jack Del Rio’s last season. I don’t see how they win 7 games.
Prediction: 4-12
AFC West
- 1. San Diego – Over 10 (-135)
History
The Chargers went 9-7 last season after finishing 13-3 the year before. They should have easily won at least 13 games last season if not for horrible special teams play and some bad luck. Here is a snapshot of their 7 losses:
- Week 1 – Lost by 7 at KC on MNF in crazy weather, gave up a 94-yard kickoff return and a 60-yard Jamaal Charles run, yet they still could have tied it in last minute but got stuffed at the goal line.
- Week 3 – Lost by 7 at SEA because of two Leon Washington kickoff returns (99 and 101 yards)
- Week 5 – Lost by 8 at OAK because they gave up a 64-yard fumble return TD and a blocked punt TD
- Week 6 – Lost by 3 at STL
- Week 7 – Lost by 3 vs. NE
- Week 13 – Lost by 15 vs. OAK partly because of consecutive blocked punts in the first quarter that led to touchdowns
- Week 16 – Lost by 14 at CIN in windy snow conditions
Also note that their 9 wins were by an average of 20 points per game. Also note that they were without Vincent Jackson for 12 games, Antonio Gates for 6 games and Marcus McNeil for 5 games. Also note that San Diego was number 1 in yards allowed last season and they spent their first 3 draft picks on defense plus added Bob Sanders.
Offense
They have a top-6 quarterback in Philip Rivers and one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Last year they were without Vincent Jackson for 12 games, Antonio Gates for 6 games and Marcus McNeil for 5 games.
Defense
The Chargers were number 1 in yards allowed last season and they spent their first 3 draft picks on defense plus added Bob Sanders.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (vs. BUF, vs. MIA, @ NE, @ NYJ), the NFC North (vs. GB, vs. MIN, @ DET, @ CHI), and vs. BAL and @ JAC. There are definitely some difficult games on the schedule (particularly @ NE, @ NYJ, vs. GB, @ CHI, @ KC, vs. BAL), but you have to figure a good team with a great quarterback will manage to win a couple of those games. Plus the rest of their schedule looks to be a cakewalk, at least on paper (vs. BUF, vs. MIA, vs. KC, vs. MIN, two against OAK, 2 against DEN, and @ JAC, @ DET).
Overall
One of the best teams in the league who won 13 games in 2009 and suffered tons of bad luck and some injuries in 2010 yet still managed to win 9 games. They should improve their win total this year, meaning they’ll win at least 10. I also say they finally get off to a good start this year. There’s a much better chance they win 11 or more in this division than 9 or less.
Prediction: 11-5
- 2. Denver – Over 6 (-135)
History
The Broncos were a miserable 4-12 last season after finishing 8-8 the season before. They started 6-0 in 2009 so they have lost 20 of their last 26 games.
Offense
Despite the offseason quarterback controversy, Kyle Orton is probably the 2nd best quarterback in the division, and the offense has some talent that also added Willis McGahee to help in the running game.
Defense
There is reason for optimism as they get their best defensive player back in Elvis Dumervil, they added Von Miller in the draft, signed defensive linemen Ty Warren and Brodrick Bunkley, and they added a very good coach in John Fox.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (vs. NE, vs. NYJ, @ MIA, @ BUF), the NFC North (vs. CHI, vs. DET, @ GB, @ MIN) and vs. CIN and @ TEN. They could get off to a hot start with their MNF game vs. OAK followed by a home game vs. CIN and then on the road @ TEN. With these 3 games, plus home games later in the year vs. DET, CHI and KC, and some winnable road games at BUF, MIA and OAK, they should be able to squeeze out 6 wins.
Overall
They play in a weak division, have a historically strong home field advantage, and get to take advantage of a last place schedule. There is enough talent to win at least 6 games. John Fox should have them motivated to do so.
Prediction: 8-8
- 3. Kansas City – Under 7.5 (+105)
History
The Chiefs won 10 games last year after winning 10 games combined in the three years prior. Check out these statistics:
- In the 32-team era (since 2002), there have been 14 teams that have increased their win total by 6 games or more from the previous season. Of those 14 teams, 10 of them decreased their win total by at least 3 the following season, and 7 of them decreased by at least 4.
- In the 32-team era, in 7 out of 8 seasons, there have been at least 2 teams to win 10+ games one year and then 5 or less the following year. Last year, it was the Bengals and Cardinals (10 wins each in 2009, 4 and 5 wins in 2010, respectively).
- Kansas City increased its win total from 4 (2009) to 10 (2010).
Of their 10 wins, Kansas City went 4-0 against the NFC West and had lucky/close wins vs. SD (Week 1 – see Chargers section above), @ CLE (Week 2 – won by 2 on a late pick-6 against Delhomme) and vs. BUF (Week 8, won by 3 in OT). In Week 17, they played their starters and got blown out at home vs. Oakland, before getting blown out at home in the playoffs against Baltimore. Week 17 was also right after offensive coordinator Charlie Weis would be going back to the college game.
Offense
They have lots of speed and talent on offense (Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, Dexter McCluster, Steve Breaston) but Matt Cassel is a bottom-10 starting quarterback despite his remarkable numbers last season. Losing Charlie Weis will hurt.
Defense
They have some great young players on defense (Eric Berry, Tamba Hali, Brandon Flowers, Glenn Dorsey) but they did lose veteran Mike Vrabel this offseason.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (vs. BUF, vs. MIA, @ NE, @ NYJ), the NFC North (vs. GB, vs. MIN, @ DET, @ CHI), and vs. PIT and @ IND.
Overall
The Chiefs are definitely better now than they were two years ago, but a big reason why they got to 10 wins last season was luck and a ridiculously easy schedule and some luck. In 2011, rather than a last place schedule, they’ll have a first place schedule, and rather than the easy NFC West they have the tough NFC North. Kansas City will be the classic ‘better than last year but worse record’ team in 2011. When you look at their overall schedule, it’s going to be difficult for them to win 8 games. I say they go 3-3 in their division, 2-2 vs. the AFC East, 2-2 vs. the NFC North and 0-2 in their flex games. Look at this 5-week stretch starting Week 11: @ NE (MNF), vs. PIT, @ CHI, @ NYJ, vs. GB. Brutal.
Prediction: 7-9
- 4. Oakland – Under 6.5 (-130) **BEST BET**
History
The Raiders finished 8-8 last season after a remarkable 7 consecutive seasons with 5 or less wins. They somehow managed to go 6-0 in the division, which included an OT win against Kansas City and two wins over San Diego which featured tons of Chargers mistakes. To be fair, Oakland should have won Week 3 at Arizona but Janikowski missed a 32-yard field goal at the buzzer. Don’t forget that in 2009, their 5 wins were by a total of 14 points, while their 11 losses were by a total of 196 points.
Offense
The Raiders have one of the worst offenses in the league, led by a bottom-10 quarterback (Jason Campbell), a bad offensive line that lost Robert Gallery and a bottom-5 receiving corps. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush form a solid running back tandem, but that doesn’t make up for the rest of their deficiencies offensively.
Defense
They have talent on defense, but the loss of Asomugha is huge. Plus, last year several of their players were in a contract year (Seymour, Huff, Wimbley, Routt) and they all got paid very nice sums of money, which could hurt their motivation in 2011.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (vs. NE, vs. NYJ, @ BUF, @ MIA), the NFC North (vs. CHI, vs. DET, @ GB, @ MIN) and vs. CLE and @ HOU. They kick off the season on the road at Denver on MNF in the 10:15 PM game, followed by a Week 2 cross-country road trip to Buffalo. Two below average teams, but it’s still a very difficult way to kick off the season for the Raiders, as they’ll be underdogs in each. They follow those 2 road games with home games against the Jets and the Patriots, then at Houston.
Overall
In 2011, the Raiders will play the tough NFC North rather than the weak NFC West. They will also be playing without their best defensive player (Nnamdi Asomugha) and their second best offensive player (Zach Miller) from 2010. Furthermore, they have a new head coach and new defensive coordinator this season. Also considering their schedule and the way they start out the season, I think it is much more likely they win 6 or less than 7 or more.
Prediction: 4-12
NFC East
- 1. Philadelphia – Over 10.5 (-150)
History
The Eagles won 10 games last year and 11 the year before. Their starters did not play in the Week 17 loss vs. Dallas, but they had no business winning their Week 15 win at the Giants (28 points in the 4th quarter, the DeSean Jackson game). They were 8-3 in games where Vick started, and one of those losses (Week 4 vs. WAS) he got hurt and didn’t finish.
Offense
There’s no denying the talent and speed, and the offensive line should be strong as well with the addition of Ryan Harris at right tackle. The biggest question mark is the health of Jeremy Maclin, but Jason Avant should be serviceable if Maclin were to miss extended time. Their skill players are all extremely vulnerable to injury, particularly Vick, Jackson, Maclin and LeSean McCoy.
Defense
The secondary is obviously elite with Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie at cornerback; but the defensive line is loaded with talent as well, with Cullen Jenkins, Trent Cole, Jason Babin and Anthony Hargrove. The linebackers appear weak, however.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (vs. NE, vs. NYJ, @ BUF, @ MIA), the NFC West (vs. SF, vs. ARI, @ STL, @ SEA) and vs. CHI and @ ATL. They finished in first place but have an easier schedule than the second-place Giants, who face the Packers and Saints, whereas the Eagles face the Bears and Falcons. With several new players and a short offseason, the Eagles may struggle early with their first 2 games @ STL and @ ATL, and 4 of their first 6 games on the road.
Overall
The Eagles are obviously one of the most talented teams in football on paper, and there are usually around 7 teams that win 11 or more games in a given season. I think the Eagles will win 11 but I am concerned that all these new pieces might not gel, that Vick won’t be as good as last year, and that their offensive skill players can’t stay healthy. I am also concerned about how they react to such high expectations.
Prediction: 11-5
- 2. Dallas – Over 9 (even)
History
The Cowboys won 6 games after winning 11 the year before. Prior to last season’s down year, they had won at least 9 games in 5 straight seasons. Despite winning just 6 games last year, they could have easily won several more games if not for bone-headed plays, bad interceptions, etc. 8 of their 10 losses were by 7 points or less. Their 2 blowout losses were Wade Phillips’ last 2 games as head coach and Jon Kitna’s 2nd and 3rd starts.
Offense
They have one of the best offenses in the NFL with a top-10 quarterback and arguably the best group of receivers including Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. Their offensive line has been shaky the past couple years and expects to start 2 rookies.
Defense
The defense returns basically the same unit, which struggles mightily against the pass and overall is an average unit. They did bring in Rob Ryan as the new defensive coordinator so there is hope on this side of the ball.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (@ NE, @ NYJ, vs. BUF, vs. MIA), the NFC West (vs. STL, vs. SEA, @ ARI, @ SF) and vs. DET and @ TB.
Overall
It’s hard to imagine the Cowboys not winning at least 9 games this year, but with the challenging division plus road games at New England and the Jets, it’s not a sure thing. However, I do think it’s more likely they win 10 or more than 8 or less.
Prediction: 10-6
- 3. New York Giants – Over 9 (even)
History
The Giants won 10 games last year and 8 the year before. In the past 4 seasons, they have won at least 10 games three times and won a Super Bowl. The year they went 8-8 they actually started 5-0 but then fell apart due to a tremendous amount of injuries on defense. Other than that stretch in 2009, this has consistently been one of the best teams in football. They won a legitimate 10 games last year; the only game that could have gone the other way was the loss to the Eagles in the “DeSean Jackson” game.
Offense
Good quarterback, good running backs, and a couple of good receivers. A couple of good players on the offensive line, but the biggest concerns are the left tackle and the loss of Kevin Boss. One of the better and more experienced offenses in the league and should be better because last year they inexplicably had the most turnovers in the league.
Defense
The strength is on the defensive line even if Osi never plays again for the Giants. The linebackers and secondary are mediocre at best. They lost their first round pick Prince Amukamara for the season which will surely hurt.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (vs. BUF, vs. MIA, @ NE, @ NYJ), the NFC West (vs. STL, vs. SEA, @ ARI, @ SF) and vs. GB and @ NO. They play identical games (home and away) to the Cowboys, but the Giants face the Packers/Saints while the Cowboys face the Lions/Bucs. They need to take advantage of the early easy schedule and stand at 5-1 by the bye week (@ WAS, vs. STL, @ PHI, @ ARI, vs. SEA, vs. BUF). It gets absolutely brutal starting in Week 9: @ NE, @ SF, vs. PHI, @ NO, vs. GB, @ DAL, vs. WAS, @ NYJ, vs. DAL.
Overall
The Giants seem to be overlooked again, with all the attention in the division going to the Eagles, and to a lesser extent, the Cowboys. However, they bring back all their main parts from the past few years, most importantly Eli Manning, Tim Coughlin and Justin Tuck, so they will have a chance. However, I don’t think they’re good enough to overcome the extremely difficult November-December schedule in order to do much better than 9.
Prediction: 9-7
- 4. Washington – Under 6 (-110)
History
The Redskins won 6 games last year and 4 the year before. All 6 of their wins were by 6 points or less, including 3 in overtime. Their 4 wins in 2009 were against 4 of the worst teams in the league that year (STL, TB, OAK, DEN).
Offense
They have a bottom-tier quarterback (John Beck or Rex Grossman), below-average running backs (led by Tim Hightower) and below-average receivers (led by 32-year old Santana Moss). The offensive line is average at best.
Defense
The defense is pretty bad as well, although they added O.J. Atogwe at safety next to LaRon Landry, who should return after missing most of last season. London Fletcher is 35.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC East (vs. NE, vs. NYJ, @ BUF, @ MIA), the NFC West (vs. SF, vs. ARI, @ STL, @ SEA) and vs. MIN and @ CAR.
Overall
The Redskins are a distant 4th in terms of talent in the NFC East, and it’s not even close. With 6 brutal division games, plus home games against NE and NYJ, plus 5 other road games in which they project to be underdogs in each, I don’t see how they can win 7 games.
Prediction: 5-11
NFC North
- 1. Green Bay – Over 11.5 (+125)
History
Last year’s Super Bowl champions went 10-6 and 11-5 the year before. None of their 6 losses were by more than 4 points, 2 were in overtime, and 2 were without Aaron Rodgers.
Offense
They have arguably the best quarterback in the league, all their key weapons returning, they have a solid offensive line and they get stud tight end Jermichael Finley back.
Defense
The Packers are loaded on defense as well, with Clay Mathews, B.J. Raji, Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams and returns 10 of 11 starters.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC West (vs. DEN, vs. OAK, @ SD, @ KC), the NFC South (vs. NO, vs. TB, @ ATL, @ CAR) and vs. STL and @ NYG.
Overall
There have been between 4-6 teams to win at least 12 games in each of the last 8 seasons. With an elite offense, elite defense and manageable schedule, the Packers will likely be one of those teams in 2011.
Prediction: 12-4
- 2. Chicago – Under 8 (-125)
History
The Bears went 11-5 last year and significantly exceeded expectations after finishing 7-9 in 2009. Their 11 wins included the Week 1 “win” vs. Detroit (the Calvin Johnson game) and a few others that could have gone either way (Week 3 win vs. GB, Week 9 win @ BUF, Week 13 win @ DET). Cutler, Forte and the Bears were pretty bad in 2009, as they beat up on mostly bad teams (Detroit twice, St. Louis, Cleveland, Seattle).
Offense
They return largely the same offense as last year, losing Greg Olsen and center Olin Kreutz, and adding Roy Williams and Marion Barber. With a solid quarterback, running back and receivers, the weak link will continue to be the offensive line, especially now that they lost Kreutz.
Defense
The defense should continue to be solid with Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs, although age may start to become a concern. Losing Danieal Manning and Tommie Harris should hurt.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC West (vs. SD, vs. KC, @ OAK, @ DEN), the NFC South (vs. ATL, vs. CAR, @ NO, @ TB) and vs. SEA and @ PHI. They have a brutal first 3 games to start the season – vs. ATL, @ NO, vs. GB.
Overall
The Bears are an average team who overachieved last season. They’ll likely go 2-4 in a tough division, and with tough games at Philly, at New Orleans, at Tampa Bay, vs. Atlanta and vs. San Diego, it will be difficult for them to win 9. 7 or less is the more likely outcome as they fall back to normal.
Prediction: 8-8
- 3. Minnesota – Over 7 (-130)
History
Before last year’s disastrous 6-10 season, the Vikings were 12-4 in 2009 and 10-6 in 2008. They were oh so close to knocking off the Saints in the 2009 NFC Championship.
Offense
The play of Brett Favre was a big reason why the Vikings were 12-4 in 2009, and he was a big reason why they went 6-10 in 2010. Now they bring in Donovan McNabb, who I think is still a very good quarterback. Even despite all that happened with Washington last year, McNabb still put up good numbers. Now he gets pared with arguably the best running back in the league. Outside of Peterson and wide receiver Percy Harvin, there isn’t a lot of talent and the offensive line is weak.
Defense
The defense used to be elite but regressed last season and now they lost Pat Williams and Ray Edwards from their defensive line. They still have Jared Allen and Kevin Williams on the line, along with E.J. Henderson and Chad Greenway at linebacker and Antoine Winfield in the secondary. Overall, the defense should be at worst, an average unit, but could regain its form as a top-10 unit because there still are some very good players.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC West (vs. DEN, vs. OAK, @ SD, @ KC), the NFC South (vs. NO, vs. TB, @ ATL, @ CAR) and vs. ARI and @ WAS.
Overall
Teams that decrease their win total by 6 games have historically increased their win total the following year by at least 4 games 50% of the time. After dropping from 12 wins in 2009 to 6 wins in 2010, and not losing that many players from the 2009 success, it’s more likely than not that the Vikings bounce up in 2011 rather than decline further. With a great running back, a now underrated quarterback, a solid defense and a manageable schedule, they’ll win at least 7 games this year. 8 is more likely than 6.
Prediction: 7-9
- 4. Detroit – Under 8 (+120)
History
The Lions won 6 games last year, up from 2 in 2009 and 0 in 2008. The Lions were 2-10 last season before they won their last 4 after they were already out of it. They haven’t reached .500 in any of the last 9 seasons, going 37-107 over that span.
Offense
Former #1 overall pick Matthew Stafford has barely played in his first 2 seasons due to injuries, but he is healthy now and has one of the best wide receivers in the league to throw to in Calvin Johnson. Their running game is relatively weak as is their offensive line, but there is some talent and speed including Jahvid Best, Jerome Harrison, Brandon Pettigrew, Nate Burleson and rookie wide receiver Titus Young.
Defense
The defensive line is one of the best in the league on paper with Ndamukong Suh and rookie Nick Fairley at defensive tackle, surrounded by Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril and backed up by Corey Williams. However, there are still a lot of holes in the secondary and with the linebackers.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC West (vs. SD, vs. KC, @ OAK, @ DEN), the NFC South (vs. ATL, vs. CAR, @ NO, @ TB) and vs. SF and @ DAL.
Overall
8 seems like an awfully high total for a team that has been so miserable for so long. They should be better than last year, but I think expectations may be a little bit too high given the holes in the secondary, offensive line and overall inexperience. Also, they play in a very tough division and have a tough schedule.
Prediction: 7-9
NFC South
- 1. New Orleans – Over 10 (-150) **BEST BET**
History
The Saints had a relatively disappointing 11-5 season last year after going 13-3 the year before and winning the Super Bowl. Last year’s 5 losses included an overtime loss vs. Atlanta, a fluky mistake-driven upset at Arizona, and a Week 17 loss when they were locked into the 5-seed.
Offense
They essentially bring back their entire offense, other than replacing center Jonathan Goodwin with Olin Kreutz, and replacing Reggie Bush with Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram. They will have one of the most explosive offenses in the league again, and should be more motivated this season than last year’s possible Super Bowl hangover; especially considering the Falcons overtook them in the NFC South.
Defense
The defense is solid but not spectacular, and they added stud nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin from the 49ers.
Schedule
They have a very manageable schedule with their 6 division games, the NFC North (vs. DET, vs. CHI, @ GB, @ MIN), the AFC South (vs. IND, vs. HOU, @ JAC, @ TEN), and flex games vs. NYG and @ STL. They actually project to be favored in all but two of those games (@ GB, @ ATL).
Overall
The Saints should be able to continue to outscore a lot of their opponents in 2011, and it’s not like their defense is bottom-tier by any means. It’s difficult to find 7 losses in that bunch. It’s much more likely the Saints win 11 or more than 9 or less.
Prediction: 12-4
- 2. Atlanta – Over 10 (-115)
History
The Falcons won 13 games last year, 9 the year before and 11 the year before that. Their 3 losses last year came against the Steelers in overtime, at Philadelphia and vs. the Saints. They were fortunate to play the NFC West and they had several close wins.
Offense
The Falcons offense should be elite in 2011 with a franchise quarterback in Matt Ryan, a solid rushing attack, and a new-found high-octane passing offense with the addition of Julio Jones to complement Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and the improved Harry Douglas. The offense will be explosive and one of the best in the league.
Defense
They have a solid defensive line that improved by adding Ray Edwards alongside John Abraham and Jonathan Babineaux, plus former first round pick Peria Jerry may finally be healthy. They also have solid linebackers and cornerbacks. Overall, the defense is solid but not spectacular.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC South (vs. JAC, vs. TEN, @ IND, @ HOU), the NFC North (vs. GB, vs. MIN, @ CHI, @ DET) and vs. PHI and @ SEA. They have a brutal start to the season @ CHI, vs. PHI, @ TB, @ SEA, vs. GB.
Overall
There are about 10 teams that win 10 or more games each season, and the Falcons will absolutely be a top 10 team this year. The brutal schedule may prevent them from getting back up to 12-13 wins, but this is a really good team that will win at least 10.
Prediction: 10-6
- 3. Tampa Bay – Under 8 (-125) **BEST BET**
History
The young Bucs surprised many people last year by winning 10 games, a year after finishing 3-13. It may also surprise you if I told you that of their 10 wins, 6 of them were either lucky or extremely lucky:
- Week 1 they beat the Browns 17-14 thanks partially to the poor play of Jake Delhomme
- Week 5 they won at Cincinnati 24-21 thanks to field goal at the buzzer and a late Carson Palmer interception. Tampa was down by 7 with 2 minutes to go.
- Week 7 they beat the Rams 18-17 at the buzzer (Freeman TD pass) and also had a 53-yard FG as part of their comeback.
- Week 8 they won at Arizona 38-35 in a crazy game that could have gone either way. The Bucs had 2 defensive touchdowns in this one.
- Week 14 they won at Washington 17-16 because the Redskins missed an extra point to tie, in addition to missing 2 short FGs.
- Week 17 they won at New Orleans but the Saints were locked into the 5 seed and benched their starters halfway through the game.
Furthermore, the Bucs enjoyed a schedule that included the NFC West, Detroit, Washington, Cleveland, Cincinnati and Carolina twice. They went 1-3 against the Saints and Falcons, and lost to the Steelers and Ravens.
Offense
Josh Freeman is a good quarterback entering his third season, but he still can’t be considered a top-12 signal caller. They return mostly the same offense from last year, including their offensive line, LeGarrette Blount and wide receiver Mike Williams.
Defense
The defense is still extremely young, especially up front with second-year players Gerald McCoy and Brian Price and rookies Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers. The secondary is solid with Aqib Talib but the linebackers are weak.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC South (vs. IND, vs. HOU, @ JAC, @ TEN), the NFC North (vs. CHI, vs. DET, @ GB, @ MIN) and vs. DAL and @ SF.
Overall
This is still an extremely young team that won 9 games mostly because of an extremely easy schedule and a lot of luck. They are a distant third in their division behind New Orleans and Atlanta. With 4 games against these 2 teams, plus battles against better teams in the NFC North, Dallas, Indianapolis and Houston, it will be almost impossible for the Bucs to repeat what they did last year. In fact, of the 28 teams in the past 8 years to increase their win total by 5 or more games from the previous season, only 1 increased their win total the following season, and 19 decreased their win total by at least 3 games.
Prediction: 6-10
- 4. Carolina – Over 4.5 (even)
History
The Panthers won 2 games last year, down from 8 in 2009. Their 2 wins were against San Francisco by 3 and Arizona by 7. Of their 14 losses, only 2of them were by less than 10.
Offense
They have one of the better running back tandems in the league with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and they actually have one of the better offensive lines who missed Jeff Otah and Travelle Wharton for most or all of last season. Cam Newton will most likely struggle passing the ball as a rookie with below-average receiving options, but he can make plays on his feet and the Panthers did add 2 good veteran tight ends in Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey.
Defense
The Panthers have an overall below average defense, but they have solid linebackers and a new coach and defensive coordinator so not all hope is lost.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the AFC South (vs. JAC, vs. TEN, @ IND, @ HOU), the NFC North (vs. GB, vs. MIN, @ CHI, @ DET) and vs. WAS and @ ARI. They have some winnable games early on, including home games vs. the Jaguars, Redskins, Vikings and Titans and the road game at Arizona in Week 1. They’ll have to win a few of those because the final 7 games are brutal – @ DET, @ IND, @ TB, vs. ATL, @ HOU, vs. TB, @ NO.
Overall
There are usually around 4-5 teams that win 4 or less games in a given season. The Panthers are certainly in the discussion for being one of the bottom 4 teams in the league, but there are lots of teams that are right there with the Panthers, including BUF, MIA, CLE, CIN, JAC, TEN, DEN, OAK, WAS, SEA and ARI. With the solid ground game and good offensive line, the Panthers offense could surprise some people. I would bet that they’re not one of the worst 4 teams in the league.
Prediction: 5-11
NFC West
- 1. Arizona – Over 7 (-150)
History
The Cardinals were pathetic last year, finishing 5-11 with 4 horrible starting quarterbacks. They dropped off from 10 wins in 2009.
Offense
The Cardinals have arguably the best WR in the league in Larry Fitzgerald and now a quarterback who can throw him the ball in Kevin Kolb. They also had a nice tight end acquisition with Todd Heap. The offensive line is abysmal, however, and the running game is pretty bad as well.
Defense
Despite having a bad year last season defensively, the Cardinals have some talent, especially in the secondary where they added first round pick Patrick Peterson to play along with safety Adrian Wilson. The defensive line is also good with Darnell Dockett, Calais Campbell and Dan Williams all returning. Daryl Washington is a good linebacker as well.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the NFC East (vs. DAL, vs. NYG, @ PHI, @ WAS), the AFC North (vs. PIT, vs. CLE, @ BAL, @ CIN) and vs. CAR and @ MIN.
Overall
Every year since the inception of the current divisional alignment, there has been at least 1 team to go from “worst to first”. This year, it will be the Arizona Cardinals. They have the best player in Larry Fitzgerald, a real quarterback this year, a good coach in Ken Whisenhunt and a good defense as far as this division is concerned. They also have a last place schedule and face Carolina and Minnesota, while the Rams have to play New Orleans and Green Bay. It will most likely be another ugly close race in the NFC West, but the Cardinals will hit the accelerator in December when they finish the season with a cupcake schedule: vs. SF, vs. CLE, @ CIN, vs. SEA.
Prediction: 8-8
- 2. St. Louis – Under 7.5 (-110)
History
The Rams won 7 games last season in Year 1 of the Sam Bradford era after winning a total of 6 in the prior three years combined. They had 4 games last season that could have gone either way, and they all happened to be losses:
- Week 1 – Loss vs. ARI by 4 on late Fitzgerald TD
- Week 2 – Loss @ OAK by 2
- Week 7 – Loss @ TB by 1 on Freeman TD at the buzzer
- Week 10 – Loss @ SF in overtime
They also played the Seahawks pretty tight in Week 17 in Seattle in the ‘play-in’ game. So with a little bit of luck last year, the Rams could have easily been 10-6 or 11-5.
Offense
The Rams probably have the best QB in the division, a rock solid RB in Steven Jackson, a new offensive coordinator in Josh McDaniels who has had plenty of success in the past on offense with New England and Denver. They also have a pretty good offensive line, especially after adding Harvey Dahl away from the Falcons.
Defense
Other than James Laurinaitis, there aren’t a lot of big names on defense, but they were a solid unit last year, finishing 12th in points allowed, which can at least partially be attributed to coach Steve Spagnuolo.
Schedule
This is where it gets tough. In addition to their 6 division games, they play the NFC East (vs. PHI, vs. WAS, @ NYG, @ DAL), the AFC North (vs. BAL, vs. CIN, @ PIT, @ CLE) and since they finished in 2nd place, they have the unfortunate privilege of also facing vs. NO and @ GB. They probably have the hardest first 2 months of any team in the league: vs. PHI, @ NYG, vs. BAL, vs. WAS, BYE, @ GB, @ DAL.
Overall
While the Rams played better than their 7-9 record last season and should continue to improve this year, history says that they will take a small step back before taking a big step forward. It will be difficult to win 8 games given their schedule. They would have to win at least 4 in the division plus 2 against the NFC East and 2 against the AFC North.
Prediction: 7-9
- 3. San Francisco – Under 7.5 (-140)
History
The 49ers were an embarrassment last season, yet they still finished 6-10 after going 8-8 the prior season.
Offense
There are good skill position players with Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree and now Braylon Edwards. The offensive line is average, but hopefully they can have left tackle Joe Staley play for a full season. It’s surprising that they bring Alex Smith back for another year.
Defense
The 49ers got hit pretty hard defensively, losing some of their best players in Nate Clements, Manny Lawson, Takeo Spikes and Aubrayo Franklin. The defense will be pretty bad and if for some reason Patrick Willis were to miss any time, this could be the worst defense in the league.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the NFC East (vs. DAL, vs. NYG, @ PHI, @ WAS), the AFC North (vs. PIT, vs. CLE, @ BAL, @ CIN) and vs. TB and @ DET.
Overall
It will most likely be another long year in San Francisco with Alex Smith back at the helm, a new coaching regime in place, and many defensive starters lost from last year.
Prediction: 6-10
- 4. Seattle – Under 6 (-145)
History
The Seahawks surprisingly won 7 games last year and qualified for the playoffs after winning 5 games in 2009 and 4 games in 2008.
Offense
They replaced Matt Hasselbeck with Tarvaris Jackson and upgraded their WR by adding Sidney Rice, upgraded their TE by adding Zach Miller and upgraded their offensive line by adding Robert Gallery and hiring former Raiders head coach Tom Cable as the offensive line coach.
Defense
The defense is average at best but they have a couple of good linebackers in Aaron Curry and David Hawthorne.
Schedule
In addition to their 6 division games, they play the NFC East (vs. WAS, vs. PHI, @ DAL, @ NYG), the AFC North (vs. BAL, vs. CIN, @ CLE, @ PIT) and vs. ATL and @ CHI.
Overall
Even though they made the playoffs last year and beat the Saints in the first round, they still went 7-9 during the regular season and were a pretty bad team. Other than adding Sidney Rice and Zach Miller, they didn’t really get any better. It will be difficult for Tarvaris Jackson to lead this team to a repeat of last season’s “success” especially considering their schedule.
Prediction: 5-11
And now, just for fun, here are my 2011 playoff projections:
AFC Playoff Teams
- New England
- Pittsburgh
- San Diego
- Indianapolis
- NY Jets
- Houston
NFC Playoff Teams
- New Orleans
- Green Bay
- Philadelphia
- Arizona
- Atlanta
- Dallas
Wildcard Weekend
Indianapolis over NY Jets
San Diego over Houston
Dallas over Philadelphia
Atlanta over Arizona
Divisional Round
New England over Indianapolis
Pittsburgh over San Diego
New Orleans over Dallas
Atlanta over Green Bay
Conference Championships
Pittsburgh over New England
New Orleans over Atlanta
Super Bowl
Pittsburgh over New Orleans
Posted by kornstein999 
