Super Bowl 2009 – Picks and Props – Best Bets

 

With hundreds of props offered all over the Internet, I have narrowed down my selections to the 7 which I think have the best value. For those who know me, 7 prop bets is significantly less than what I’ve had the past couple years. However, I’m only going to make bets if I think there is good value, and I only see 7 that I really like.

 

Larry Fitzgerald will not score at least 2 touchdowns (-340) – Fitzgerald scored at least 2 touchdowns in 4 out of 19 games this season. That’s a lot of multi-touchdown games, but there were still 15 out of 19 games in which he did not score 2 touchdowns (79% of his games). The -340 line warrants 77% confidence. The Steelers have not allowed a single player to catch 2 touchdowns against them for the entire season. Even at -340, this line is money.

 

Kurt Warner under 0.5 rushing yards on first attempt (-340) – Warner only had 3 rushes for positive yardage all season (4 in 2007, 3 of which came in the same game). He had zero rushes for positive yardage in 29 out of his last 33 games (88%). Odds of -340 mean you need to be 77% sure that Warner’s first carry won’t be for positive yardage. I think he’s smart enough to know that he shouldn’t even try to run against the Steelers.

 

Ben Roethsliberger under 237.5 passing yards (-110) – Roethlisberger had over 220 yards in only 7 out of 18 games, and most of those games were either against good rush defenses or in games where Pittsburgh trailed. Chances are Roethlisberger won’t eclipse this total against the Cardinals.

 

Anquan Boldin will have first reception (+450) – Even if there was a 50/50 chance that Arizona receives the opening kickoff, these would appear to be generous odds. However, considering that Arizona is a big favorite to receive the opening kickoff (Pittsburgh has deferred to receive until the second half on multiple occasions this season), this makes this bet even more attractive. At +450 (18%), your thinking should be “If they played this game 10 times, would Boldin catch the first pass in 2 out of the 10 games?”. The answer should be yes. Fitzgerald is +400 in this same bet, but I like Boldin because a) he has better odds, b) he averaged more receptions per game during the season and c) Arizona may want to get him involved early since he was upset due to his lack of recent involvement.

 

Ben Roethlisberger first TD pass over 9.5 yards (-120) (No TD no action) – Out of Roethlisberger’s 19 touchdown passes this season (17 in the regular season and 2 in the playoffs), the average distance was 20 yards and 11 out of the 19 (58%) were for greater than 10 yards. Also, if Roethlisberger throws zero touchdown passes (which happened 5 times), you get your money back. Good value here.

 

Willie Parker under 0.5 receiving yards (-145) – Parker had only 3 receptions all season and 1 in the playoffs. That’s 9 out of 13 games he did not have a catch (69%) while the odds say you need to be more than 59% confident that he will not have a catch. I would say that if they played this game 10 times, he would have a reception in at most 4 games. Mewelde Moore (40 receptions) is their third-down back, not Parker.

 

Over 45 seconds left remaining on clock when team tries to dump Gatorade on coach (-135) – The only way the Gatorade dumping occurs with less than 45 seconds left is if the outcome of the game is still in question at that point, which usually is not the case in the Super Bowl. On the other hand, it is unlikely that the Gatorade dumping will occur prior to the 2-minute warning, so there is a risk that the players on the sideline procrastinate and don’t get to the coach prior to the 45-second mark. However, you would think most players would instinctually want to get to the Gatorade sooner rather than later. This one should be interesting but I like the ‘Over’.

 

Actual Game: Steelers -6.5 vs. Arizona (-110) – The Steelers offense has the edge over the Arizona defense – Pittsburgh will be able to run on them and Roethlisberger will be able to throw on them. They would be able to grind out the clock with a lead and Roethlisberger would be able to carry them back if they fall behind. Also, the Steelers defense has the edge over the Arizona offense. Arizona ranked 31^st in rushing yards per attempt while Pittsburgh’s defense ranked 1^st in rushing yards allowed per attempt. Pittsburgh’s defense also ranked 1^st in passing yards allowed per game and ranked near the top of the league in almost every defensive category. Obviously, Arizona will have no chance to run the football. They will find some success throwing the ball because that’s what Arizona does so well, but only 2 quarterbacks threw for more than 220 yards against the Steelers – Peyton Manning (240) and Philip Rivers in the playoffs (308). Fitzgerald and Boldin are great, but the Steelers defense will beat them up more than they’ve been hit all season. I think both teams are equally likely to make a big play on offense and both quarterbacks are equally likely to throw a really bad interception. I would also call the coaching matchup about even, but possibly a slight edge to Arizona – Remember that Ken Whisenhunt coached with the Steelers two years ago – he knew a lot of their tendencies although I’m not sure how relevant that is anymore, but Arizona did upset Pittsburgh last year during the regular season. Finally, I have a feeling that the game will feel like a home game for the Steelers. As long as Roethlisberger doesn’t turn the ball over multiple times, the Steelers defense should be able to manage the Arizona offense while the Steelers offense should be able to control the game. All in all, I’m happy to get this line at -6.5 after it’s been at 7 all week.

AFC and NFC Championship Games, 2009 – Picks

 

I know I am cutting it pretty close to kickoff, but here they are for the record. No analysis this week.

 

Philadelphia -3.5 @ Arizona

Baltimore +6 @ Pittsburgh

 

Prediction: Philadelphia 30, Arizona 24

Prediction: Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 17

NFL 2009 Playoff Picks – Divisional Round

I was a coin-flip and a few questionable calls in overtime away from sitting at 4-0. Instead, I’ll have to settle for 3-1. Here are my picks for the divisional round:

Baltimore +3 @ Tennessee

Carolina -9.5 vs. Arizona

N.Y. Giants -4 vs. Philadelphia

Pittsburgh -6 vs. San Diego

Prediction: Baltimore 20, Tennessee 10

If these teams played 20 times, how many times would Tennessee win by more than a field goal? 6? 7? That’s why I’m taking the Ravens getting 3 points. Baltimore is on an incredible run right now. I actually think Baltimore’s offense has a slightly better chance at moving the ball against Tennessee than the Titans offense does against Baltimore’s defense. Baltimore will be able to manage Chris Johnson and they’ll force Kerry Collins to beat them. I don’t trust Collins at all against the Baltimore defense. The Baltimore defense has the best chance of any unit of making a big play in this game. In what should be an extremely low-scoring game, getting 3 points looks golden.

Prediction: Carolina 34, Arizona 17

The Cardinals were 3-5 on the road with their only wins against the Rams, Seahawks and 49ers. Their 5 losses? All on the East Coast. Carolina, meanwhile, was 8-0 at home. They have scored at least 27 points in their last 7 games and in 9 out of their last 10. Arizona’s defense is nothing special so the Panthers should be able to move the ball all game long. I think the Panthers get an early lead in this game very quickly behind their home crowd. Arizona will get rattled and they’ll look flat on the road (again) especially after their big emotional win last week. Think about it, last week was Arizona’s Super Bowl. They’re just showing up to Carolina knowing they’re going to get beat. The Panthers, on the other hand, are going to be so riled up for this game. Everyone in both locker rooms knows Carolina is going to win. I’ll lay the points, but I won’t be surprised when Arizona makes a late run at a possible lucky cover.

Prediction: N.Y. Giants 23, Philadelphia 17

I really think the week off will help the Giants tremendously in preparation for this game – they had extra time to get healthy, extra time to regroup after looking a little sluggish down the stretch, and extra time to prepare for this game. I’ll take the defending Super Bowl champions in their first home playoff game coming off a bye with a definitive coaching advantage in this game. I know the Giants will be more prepared for this game than the Eagles. Philly will try to ride its momentum in this game but there will come a point where they just run out of gas.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, San Diego 14

Pittsburgh’s defense is just too dominant to lose their opening home playoff game, especially after losing at home in the playoffs last year to Jacksonville. It’s not happening two years a row. The Steelers have too much pride to lose 2 home playoff games in 2 consecutive years without a win. Especially to a team that went 8-8 during the regular season, including 3-5 on the road and will be without LaDainian Tomlinson. Darren Sproles is not going to do to the Steelers (#2 rush defense) what he did to the Colts last week. Philip Rivers will have to win the game against the #1 pass defense in one of the toughest places to play, especially in mid-January. On the other side of the ball, I would give the edge to Ben Roethilsberger and the Steelers offense against an average, but improved, San Diego defense. The Steelers will be able to score the ball on offense – They’ll get an early lead and the defense and the crowd will take it from there.

NFL Playoffs 2009 – Wildcard Weekend – Picks

 

Before you put too much stock into my playoff picks, let me first disclaim that picking games is not my strength. As I wrote in my ‘About Us’ page, my strength is finding value in player props and futures. However, that won’t stop me on my journey to go a perfect 11-0 against the spread in the playoffs. This is my first time making my picks public, but I did go 10-1 in 2006 when the Steelers won the Super Bowl. Each of the last 2 years I was 6-5. But I have no proof. Here are my picks for Wildcard Weekend:

 

Arizona +2.5 vs. Atlanta

Indianapolis (PK) @ San Diego

Baltimore -3.5 @ Miami

Philadelphia -3 @ Minnesota

 

Prediction: Arizona 35, Atlanta 20

Despite faltering down the stretch, Arizona was still 6-2 at home for the season. In these 8 home games, Kurt Warner had a 105.5 QB rating, which included 17 touchdown passes and only 5 interceptions. Atlanta is ranked in the bottom 10 in the league in receiving yards allowed per game. Not that Arizona ever runs the ball, but the Falcons also rank in the bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed per game. Atlanta, meanwhile, was only 4-4 on the road and they weren’t even competitive in losses at Tampa Bay, at Philadelphia and at Carolina. In the 8 road games, Matt Ryan only had an 82.4 QB rating, compared to a 92.7 rating at home. Despite his great season, Matt Ryan is still a rookie, and he’s playing his first playoff game on the road. The Falcons have to travel across the country to Arizona, which hasn’t hosted a playoff game since who knows when. The only advantage the Falcons have for them is their running game, which ranked second in the NFL this season in rushing yards. Arizona is surprisingly decent (top half of the league) in defending the rush. Even if the Falcons get out to an early lead, Arizona will have no problem playing from behind. On the other hand, if Arizona gets off to an early lead, the Falcons may struggle to play from behind, especially on the road. Kurt Warner and the Arizona offense will have a field day while Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense will struggle to get anything going on the road.

 

Prediction: Indianapolis 24, San Diego 21

My most logical reasoning in picking the Colts in this game is that Peyton Manning is incredible and that he has a better than 50% chance of winning this game, especially considering that San Diego was an inconsistent 8-8 team and ranked 31^st in the league in passing yards allowed per game. The Colts have Peyton Manning and have won 9 in a row so how can you not take them in a ‘pickem’ against San Diego. Even though the Chargers have won 4 in a row, none of them were against playoff teams and one of them included a lucky come-from-behind win against Kansas City. Did you know that San Diego’s record this season against playoff teams is 0-5? Manning should have a field day against this pass defense. He should be able to lead those long time-consuming drives that will keep San Diego’s offense off the field. If the Colts fall behind early, Manning will be able to score quickly. In the Chargers’ defense, when they are playing their best football, they can beat anyone. But who knows how they will come out in this game? I know that the Colts will show up and play good football and at ‘pickem’, this is an easy choice for me.

 

Prediction: Baltimore 26, Miami 13

I think this one will be all Baltimore from the start. Miami is a nice story and they may be just happy to be there. Baltimore, meanwhile, is an actual Super Bowl contender. At 11-5, Baltimore’s losses include an overtime loss at Pittsburgh, a 3-point loss vs. Tennessee, and the controversial 13-9 loss vs. Pittsburgh in week 15. Miami, meanwhile, has won 9 of its final 10 games, but none of the wins were against playoff teams. None of the 9 wins were by more than 10 points and they include a 4-point win vs. St. Louis, a 2-point win vs. Seattle, a 2-point win vs. Oakland, a 5-point win vs. San Francisco and a 7-point win vs. Kansas City. Miami is the lowest scoring team in the playoffs. Baltimore’s defense? They’re pretty good. The Ravens rank 3^rd in the league in rushing yards allowed per game, 1^st in rushing touchdowns allowed (only 4 the entire season), 2^nd in passing yards allowed per game, and 1^st in interceptions (26). I just can’t imagine Miami having much success on offense. Baltimore’s offense, while not necessarily a juggernaut, ranked 4^th in the league in rushing yards per game. Leron McClain and Willis McGahee have a better chance of beating up Miami’s defense than Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams do against the Ravens. As for Joe Flacco, he was a much better player on the road, posting a 91.7 QB rating – 211 yards per game, 10 touchdowns, 5 interceptions. The Ravens have scored at least 24 points in 9 of their final 11 games and at least 33 in 5 of them. If anyone in this game is going to make a big play, it’s the Ravens defense. Anyway, my point is that Baltimore is the better team and should show it on Sunday. I’m not crazy about laying more than 3 points because it should be a low-scoring game, but I still like the Ravens to win by more than a field goal.

 

Prediction: Philadelphia 34, Minnesota 16

Philadelphia was 9-6-1. Each of their wins were convincing – no lucky wins. Other than a 6-point win at the Giants and a 9-point win vs. the Steelers, all their wins were by at least 2 touchdowns. Of their 6 losses, they had a chance to either win or tie FOUR of them in the final minutes. Do you remember the thrillers on national television in Week 2 (41-37 loss at Dallas), Week 4 (24-20 loss at Chicago), Week 10 (36-31 loss vs. the Giants), and Week 16 (10-3 loss at Washington)? The only game they got blown out was at Baltimore in Week 12. One could argue that they have been one of the best teams in the league this year. If a few bounces or calls went their way, they could have easily been at least 12-4. I’m buying the Eagles as a Super Bowl contender. They’re loaded on both sides of the ball – 4^th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game, 3^rd in the league in passing yards allowed per game, 3^rd in the league in sacks, and 6^th in total offense. They have experience and they are hungry. Minnesota, meanwhile, I have a feeling is just happy to be in the playoffs after their playoff-clinching field goal against the Giants’ backups. Tarvaris Jackson is the starting quarterback for the Vikings, who allowed the 7^th most sacks during the year. The smart and experienced Eagles defense should have a field day against Jackson. Expect sacks, fumbles, interceptions, and possibly even a Gus Frerotte sighting. I think now is also a good time to mention that the Vikings beat the Lions twice. By a total of 6 points. Philadelphia’s momentum from their dominating demolition of the Cowboys will carry over into this game. Giants fans should be nervous about a potential Giants-Eagles matchup in the divisional round.