Odd Spread of the Week

Week 5 is still 12 days away, but you can check out the spreads at sportsbook.com. One that caught my eye is the New England @ San Francisco matchup. I was expecting to see the Patriots as 7-point road favorites but instead, New England is currently only favored by 3 points! THREE! Against the Niners!! Sure, you can go ahead and say the Pats are done, or that the Niners might be pretty good. But let’s put this in context. The Patriots just got embarrassed at home after 21 consecutive regular season wins. Now, Bill Belichick has two weeks to prepare for a team that has won 5 games each of the last 2 years. Look, worst case scenario is that you take the Patriots at -3 today with an opportunity to hedge and take the Niners later in the week because I guarantee that the betting public, along with a likely San Francisco loss in Week 4, will push this spread up a couple points. Take the value and take the Patriots. Now.

Who will win the 2008 NFL MVP?

With the first two weeks of the regular season under our belt, let’s take a look at the odds on who will win the NFL’s MVP award for the 2008 Season. Keep in mind the following three factors when making your predictions:

 

1. The NFL MVP always comes from a playoff team and usually from one of the top two or three teams in the league during the regular season.
2. The last time the NFL MVP was not a running back or quarterback was 1986 when Lawrence Taylor of the New York Giants won it.
3. The NFL MVP, nine times out of ten, puts up fantastic numbers.

 

These three factors may sound obvious, but it helps us when we want to narrow down the potential MVPs after the first two weeks of the season to the following players, by position, in order:

 

Quarterbacks

Peyton Manning, 8:1 – Off to a rough start but Manning is an MVP candidate every year so I wouldn’t write him off just yet despite only 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions through 2 games. If the Colts bounce back to win the division (and they still should be considered a heavy favorite to do so), the running game and defense continue to struggle, and Manning throws for 25 touchdowns and 4,000 yards again, he would have a great shot at winning it. He’s the best quarterback in the league and the most valuable player (literally) in my opinion. If you think there is better than an 11% chance that Peyton Manning wins the MVP, then it is worth it to make this bet. I think it’s worth it.

 

Tony Romo, 5:1 – Has the potential to put up monster numbers again this year on a team that could be the best in the league. However, if the Colts finish with 11 or more wins again, with injuries to their offensive line and to Bob Sanders, how is Tony Romo more valuable than Peyton Manning? 5:1 is not a big enough payout for me to consider betting on Romo.

 

Ben Roethlisberger, 12:1 – The Steelers should easily win their division and could even end up with the best record in the AFC. However, Ben only passed for more than 20 touchdowns once in his career (last year he threw 32) and only once has he passed for more than 3,200 yards in a season. If the Steelers do end up with the best record, there’s always a chance that Willie Parker escapes with the MVP crown. I’m a big fan of Roethlisberger and do consider him to be one of the most valuable players in the league (literally). 12:1 seems to be reasonable odds and I don’t think it would be a bad bet, but I’m not going to take it.

 

Jay Cutler, 30:1 – Cutler is the MVP of the league through the first 2 weeks, throwing for 650 yards, 6 touchdowns and only 1 interception, while leading the Broncos to a 2-0 start including a come-from-behind (and controversial) victory against division rival San Diego. Through 2 weeks, the Broncos look like this year’s version of the 2007 Patriots, at least offensively. The fact that they already beat San Diego and have a 2-game lead on them gives Denver the inside track for the division crown. Cutler looks unstoppable right now and could realistically finish with 30 touchdowns, 4,000 yards and under 12 interceptions for an 11+ win team. If you think there is better than a 3% chance that Jay Cutler wins the MVP, then it is worth it to make this bet. I would recommend it.

 

Donovan McNabb, 10:1 – The Eagles very well could end up with the best record in the NFC, but Brian Westbrook would be the more likely MVP in that case. I love McNabb, but he’s probably not going to win the MVP.

 

Aaron Rodgers, Not Listed (QB Field = 6:1 – See Below) – 500 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 60 yards rushing, 1 rushing touchdown in 2 games for a team that could win the NFC. I’m just saying there’s a chance.

 

Philip Rivers, 20:1 – Starting 0-2 and having LaDainian Tomlinson on your team makes 20:1 not very attractive. But he has thrown 600 yards and 6 touchdowns through three games and Tomlinson has a nagging toe injury. If the Chargers come back and finish 12-4 like everyone originally expected, it could be because of Rivers, not Tomlinson.

 

Eli Manning, 15:1 – As the leader of the 2-0 Giants and defending Super Bowl champions, you are considered an MVP candidate in my book. Eli has never put up monster numbers and his interceptions have historically been pretty high, so I don’t think it’s worth it at 15:1

 

Drew Brees, 12:1 – You know the numbers will be there, but I don’t think the Saints will be good enough where you could consider Brees over the likes of some of these other players.

 

Kurt Warner, Not Listed (QB Field = 6:1 – See Below) – 560 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions for the 2-0 Arizona Cardinals. As the favorite to now win the NFC West, there’s a chance Warner could win his third MVP.

 

QB Field: The QB Field includes everyone except Romo, McNabb, Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, Cutler, Rivers, Eli Manning, Brees, Carson Palmer, David Garrard, Derek Anderson, Jon Kitna, Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Leinart (?), and Vince Young. The best quarterbacks in the field are Aaron Rodgers, Jake Delhomme, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Trent Edwards, J.T. O’Sullivan and Jason Campbell. Not even close to worth it at 6:1 if you ask me.

 

Running Backs

Brian Westbrook, 20:1 – Looks to be this year’s version of the 2006 LaDainain Tomlinson and 2000 Marshall Faulk. Westbrook leads the league with 5 touchdowns through 3 games, plus 195 total yards of offense. He’s a solid bet for at least 15 touchdowns and at least 2,000 yards of total offense. If the Eagles continue to play as well as they have and end up with 11+ wins, Brian Westbrook could be your 2008 MVP. 20:1 is an unbelievable bargain.

 

Adrian Peterson, 10:1 – Peterson currently leads the league in rushing with 263 yards and is a great bet to finish the season on top. He only has 1 touchdown but he should still end up with at least 12. If the Vikings (0-2) turn it around, Peterson could win the MVP. I don’t think the Vikings will finish any better than 9-7, so unless Peterson pulls a 2005 Shaun Alexander, this one is not going to happen.

 

Marion Barber, Not Listed (RB Field = 8:1) – With over 200 yards of total offense and 4 touchdowns through the first 2 games, there’s a chance that Barber, not Tony Romo, could win the MVP if the Dallas Cowboys end up with the best record in the NFC. Barber is the only running back in the ‘field’ that I would consider, so I’m not seeing great value at 8:1.

 

LaDainian Tomlinson, 6:1 – Only has 123 yards and zero touchdowns through the first 2 games for an 0-2 San Diego team and has a lingering toe injury. Don’t even consider this at 6:1.

 

Willie Parker, 10:1 – See the Ben Roethlisberger section above. Parker has been the best player, statistically, on a potentially great team with 243 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns in the first 2 weeks. I still wouldn’t consider him for MVP at 10:1. Roethlisberger is the more valuable player.

 

Marshawn Lynch, 50:1 – The Bills are 2-0 and Lynch has 150 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bills have a long way to go, but there’s a chance that they surprise us all and finish with 11 or more wins with Lynch rushing for 1,600 yards and scoring 18 touchdowns. I don’t think it will happen, but the 50:1 odds sound about right to me. Certainly more valuable than Matt Leinart, who is also listed at 50:1.

 

Best Bets:

Brian Westbrook, 20:1

Jay Cutler, 30:1

Peyton Manning, 8:1