Can the Rockets beat the Lakers in this 2nd round series?

 
It sure looks like they have a decent chance after last night’s 100-92 upset win in Game 1 in Los Angeles. The Rockets are tough as nails defensively. They are so physical that they can bully around guys like Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol, both of whom you may recall got pushed around quite a bit by the Boston Celtics in the 2008 NBA Finals. Shane Battier and Ron Artest will make Kobe Bryant work incredibly hard for his points. Guys like Von Wafer and Kyle Lowry are incredibly fast and provide a key spark off the bench. Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes are two more guys, along with Luis Scola, Battier and Artest, who just love to do the little things and push people around. And then there’s Yao Ming, who I heard is pretty good. Too bad Tracy McGrady isn’t healthy (sarcasm) otherwise the rest of the team can stand around and watch him go 1-on-3.

But how have teams responded in the second round after losing Game 1 at home? Out of the 68 second round series of the past 17 years, there have only been 12 times (prior to this season) that the road team won Game 1. Of those 12 instances, only twice has the home team ALSO lost Game 2, the 1999 Hawks who got swept by the Knicks and the 1994 Rockets who came back to beat the Suns in 7 games. Additionally, of those 12 instances, the home team that lost Game 1 ended up winning the series 7 out of 12 times, and in 6 of those 7 comeback series wins, the series went the full 7 games. 3 of these teams that lost Game 1 ended up winning the Championship (2006 Miami Heat, 1994 Houston Rockets, 1992 Chicago Bulls)

Here are the 12 examples:
2007: Spurs win Game 1 at Phoenix, Phoenix wins Game 2, but the Spurs win the series in 6
2006: Heat lose Game 1 at home vs. the Nets, Heat win the next 4 games
2004: Timberwolves lose Game 1 at home vs. Sacramento, win Game 2 and go on to win in 7
2003: Dallas loses Game 1 at home to the Kings, wins Game 2 and goes on to win in 7
2001: 76ers lose Game 1 at home to Toronto, win Game 2 and go on to win in 7
1999: Hawks lose Game 1 at home to the Knicks and end up getting swept
1997: Heat lose Game 1 at home to the Knicks, win Game 2, and go on to win in 7 after the entire Knicks team gets suspended for the last 2 games
1996: Spurs lose Game 1 at home to the Jazz, win Game 2, but lose the series in 6
1995: Knicks lose Game 1 at home to Indiana, win Game 2, but lose the series in 7
1994: Hawks lose Game 1 at home to Indiana, win Game 2, but lose the series in 6
1994: Rockets lose Game 1 at home to Phoenix, also lose Game 2, but come back to win the series in 7
1992: Bulls lose Game 1 at home to the Knicks, win Game 2 and go on to win the series in 7

2009 NBA Playoffs – 2nd Round Preview – Boston will beat Orlando

In the past 17 years, there have been 68 second-round series.

-The home team has won the series 81% of the time (55 out of 68).

-Only once (1999) have two road teams won the series (Knicks over Hawks, Blazers over Jazz)

-In 6 of the 17 years, all four home teams advanced to the Conference Finals. The last time it happened was 2005.

-Of the 13 home teams that lost in the second round, none of them were favored by more than 7 points in Game 1. Only 2 of them were favored by more than 5 (none since 1996).

-Since 1994, when the home team is favored by 4 or less in Game 1, they are only 7-9 in the series.

-Since 2003, when the first round was expanded to 7 games, there have been 5 teams to win a first round series in 7 games and then have home court advantage in the second round. All 5 teams won their second round series, including the Celtics in 2008, Jazz in 2007, Suns in 2006, Mavericks in 2003 and Pistons in 2003.

 

The most up-for-debate series is the Celtics/Magic series, and I seem to be the only person that likes the Celtics. I took the Celtics (-135) yesterday thinking I was getting good value, but the line has since gone down to Celtics (-115). The Magic are also -115, making this series essentially a pick’em, which I think is ridiculous. Dwight Howard, in my opinion, is the most important player in this series. In order for Orlando to win, Howard needs to absolutely dominate. Despite the impressive stats, he still hasn’t shown me that he’s capable of dominating. Is this the series where he takes that next step? Or will we continue to see Rafer Alston, Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu pass the ball around the perimeter, run the occasional pick and roll with Dwight, and hope that Dwight can grab the offensive rebound? If it’s the latter, the Celtics win. Easily. Boston is the better team, they’re tougher, they have more heart, and they are proven and experienced winners. I trust Rajon Rondo to destroy Rafer Alston. I trust Paul Pierce to get to the rim and draw fouls. I don’t trust Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu – they don’t strike me as particularly reliable and they can’t get to the rim (no one on Orlando can get to the rim except for Courtney Lee, who may miss the entire series). I don’t trust Dwight Howard to avoid foul trouble and I don’t trust him to dominate. If you want to put your money on Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, be my guest. I’m going with Paul Pierce and the defending champs. And I will feel more confident than you.

 

The bets:

-Celtics (-115)

 

The picks:

-Cavs in 5

-Celtics in 6

-Lakers in 5

-Nuggets in 7

When teams get blown out, what happens next?

 

It has been well-documented that the 58-point blowout win by the Denver Nuggets ties the record for largest margin of victory in the history of the NBA Playoffs. The question is now, as bettors, how will the two teams respond to such a lopsided victory? Will the Hornets roll over and die, or will they play with a little bit of pride? I firmly believe it will be the latter. The Nuggets are 10.5 point favorites in Game 5 after being only a 6.5 point favorite in each of their first 2 home games of this series. Clearly, a 58-point victory will have an impact on the spread, but moving the line by 4 points seems a little high. Especially considering that teams have historically done very well against the spread in games following lopsided losses. Here are some stats for you:

 

Since 1994, there have only been three 40-point games where the game did not eliminate one of the teams. That is, the teams had to square off again after the 40-point dismantling. In all three cases, the team that lost by 40-plus ended up covering the spread in the following game. In two out of the three, the team that got blown out actually won the following game straight up.

-The Jazz lost at Chicago 96-54 in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. In Game 4, Utah was a 5.5 point road underdog and lost by 4.

-In Game 2 of the first round of the 1997 playoffs, Phoenix lost at Seattle by 44 (122-78) and then went on to win Game 3 by 7 points despite being a 3-point home underdog.

-In Game 1 of the first round of the 1995 playoffs, Boston lost at Orlando by 47 (124-77) and then went on to win Game 2 by 7 points despite being a 15-point road underdog.

 

Teams that have lost by 30 or more are 18-10 (64%) against the spread in the next game since 1994. Teams that have lost by 20 or more are 76-49 (61%) against the spread in the next game since 1994.

 

However, there have only been two times since 1994 where a team lost by 30 or more at home and then went on the road in the following game:

-In Game 4 of the first round of the 2005 playoffs, Indiana lost to Boston at home by 31 and then went on the road to Boston in Game 5 and won straight up.

-In Game 5 of the first round of the 2003 playoffs, Minnesota lost to the Lakers at home by 30 and then went on the road to the Lakers in Game 6 and lost by 16.

 

Since 1994, teams that lose by 20 or more at home and then go on the road in the following game are 9-6 against the spread in that road game.

 

I don’t expect the Hornets to win Game 5 but I don’t expect them to roll over and die either. I think Chris Paul and the gang will play with a little bit of pride on the road, and I think they lose by less than 10 points.

 

The pick: Hornets +10.5

2009 Playoffs ATS: 4-6

Teams down 3-1 and are at home in Game 5

 

Since 1992, excluding the NBA Finals, there have been 17 teams that have had home court advantage in a series and fell behind 3 games to 1 in a best-of-7. Of those 17, only 3 have come back to win the series (Phoenix vs. the Lakers in 2006, Detroit vs. Orlando in 2003, and Miami vs. New York in 1997). However, of those 17, all were favored at home in Game 5 and 14 of the 17 won Game 5 straight up. Only 9 of the 17 covered the spread in Game 5.

 

In Game 5, the Blazers are at home in a do-or-die elimination game while the Rockets may become complacent knowing they have 3 chances to eliminate Portland, and may save their best stuff for Game 6 at home later in the week. I expect the Blazers to come out with much more fire than the Rockets and I expect Portland to win straight up in Game 5. I also think they are a solid bet to cover the spread.

 

The pick: Blazers -5.5

When a series is tied 2-2…

 

Since 1992, there have been 65 best-of-7 series that have been tied 2 games apiece. Of those 65, the home team has won Game 5 47 times (72%), the home team has gone on to win the series 45 times (69%), and the team that has won Game 5 has gone on to win the series 55 times (85%). If the home team wins Game 5, they win the series 87% of the time, but if the road team wins Game 5, it’s 78%. The last time a road team won Game 5 when the series was tied at 2 was in 2007 (Cavs over the Pistons in the Conference Finals).

 

However, the home team has only covered the spread in Game 5 when the series is tied at two 40% of the time. In the Eastern Conference, the Celtics and Bulls are tied at two games apiece as are the Magic and 76ers, two of the most exciting first round series we have seen in a long time. The Celtics are 7.5 point favorites and the Magic are 8.5 point favorites. Both spreads seem rather high considering how close the teams looked in the first four games. I feel better about the Bulls in Game 5 than I do about the 76ers because I think the Celtics are tired, while the Magic may just be starting to turn it on. However, both underdogs already have a road win and both could be up 3 games to 1 at this point (they also could have both been swept if you decide to look at it the other way). The point is that they are confident – they both believe they can go into the opposing team’s buliding and win, while I’m not so sure the home teams are so confident. If anything, the home teams are more scared to lose as opposed to hungry to win like the underdogs are. I think both underdogs are solid bets.

 

The picks:

-Chicago +7.5

-Philadelphia +8.5

Taking the Lakers in Game 3

 

Very late decision, but I’ve convinced myself to take the Lakers in Game 3. They’re on a mission and I say they win this game 7 out of 10 times. See the post below for further analysis.

 

Bet: Lakers -2

Take the Hornets in Game 3

 

Since 2003, teams that lose the first 2 games of a series on the road are 39-15 (72%) against the spread in Game 3. This is a phenomenal trend and it makes sense. So much in professional sports is about who wants it more. Think about it, teams that go up 2 games to 0 will go into game 3 much more relaxed knowing that they can afford to lose the game. Meanwhile, the team down 0-2 is now playing at home and it’s do-or-die for them. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series in the history of the NBA playoffs.

 

Out of the three teams up 2-0 (Cavs, Lakers, Nuggets), Denver appears to be the most susceptible to a Game 3 no-show. The Hornets, on the other hand, appear to be the most likely out of the three teams down 0-2 to play like there’s no tomorrow in front of their home crowd.

 

Go with the Hornets and lay the 4.5 points.

 

Oh, and by the way, the 72% trend does not change depending on whether the team down 0-2 is favored or not. It’s about the same percentage each way. The Pistons and the Jazz, who are each also down 0-2, are underdogs in Game 3. I’m staying away from Utah (even though they are 64-21 straight up, 75%, at home since 1992, including 11-3 straight up and 9-4-1 against the spread at home in the Deron Williams era) because the Lakers are clearly the better team and they just seem to be on a mission. Also, the Lakers were up 2-0 in the first round last year and then went on to sweep Denver. I’m thinking about taking the Pistons plus 4.5 but it’s so hard to justify betting on them when Cleveland is the far superior team.

 

Bet: Hornets -4.5

 

2009 Playoff Bets: 2-3 ATS

3 teams won Game 1 by 20 or more points

 

There were 3 20-point victories over the weekend. The Nuggets beat the Hornets by 29, the Hawks beat the Heat by 26, and the Rockets beat the Blazers by 27. The Nuggets and Hawks won at home while the Rockets pulled off the blowout on Portland’s home court. Here are some important facts to know about 20-point wins:

 

Since 1992, out of all 7-game series, if a team wins by 20+ points in Game 1, that team has gone on to win the series 20 out of 22 times. The two exceptions are the Celtics in 2005 (lost to the Pacers in 7 after winning Game 1 by 20) and the Suns in 1995 (lost to the Rockets in 7 after winning Game 1 by 22.

 

Aside from the 2009 Houston Rockets, there has only been 1 other team to win by 20+ points on the road in Game 1 of a best-of-7 series. In 1996, the Utah Jazz won at San Antonio by 20 points in Game 1 of the second round. The Jazz then lost Game 2 by 11 before winning the series in 6 games.

 

Since 1994, teams that win Game 1 by 20+ points at home go on to cover the spread in Game 2 only 38% of the time (13-21). They win straight up in Game 2 only 67% of the time (27-13) since 1992.

 

Since 1994, teams that win any game of the series by 20+ points cover the spread only 39% (49-76) of the time in the next game. In 2008 alone, teams were 2-10 against the spread after winning by 20 plus. This seems to me like a large enough sample to consider betting on the Blazers, Heat, and Hornets in Game 2, and hope to win at least 2 out of 3.

 

Bets to make:

-Blazers -5.5 vs. Rockets

-Heat +5 @ Hawks

-Hornets +5.5 @ Nuggets

 

Also consider taking the Rockets to win the series at -185.

 

2009 Playoff Bets: 1-1

Cavs vs. Pistons – Game 2

 

Since 1994, there have been 26 instances when the home team wins Game 1 by double digits and then said team is favored by double digits in Game 2. Of these 26 instances, the home team has covered the spread only 8 times (30%) in Game 2. Recent examples include:

-In 2007, the Cavs beat the Wizards by 15 in Game 1, were favored by 12 in Game 2, but only won Game 2 by 7 points.

-In 2006, the Pistons beat the Bucks by 18 in Game 1, were favored by 11.5 in Game 2, but only won Game 2 by 11 points.

-In 2006, the Pistons beat the Cavs (second round) by 27 in Game 1, were favored by 10.5 in Game 2, but only won Game 2 by 6 points.

-In 2006, the Spurs beat the Kings by 34 in Game 1, were favored by 11 in Game 2, but only won Game 2 by 9 points.

In the last 3 seasons, the only instance in which the favored team beat the spread in Game 2 (using the above parameters) was last season when the Celtics beat the Hawks by 23 in Game 1, were favored by 15.5 in Game 2, and ended up winning Game 2 by 19.

 

Regardless, the trend bodes well for the Pistons in Game 2. Shockingly.

 

From a non-trend perspective, I think the Cavs will crush Detroit in Game 2. During Game 1, Jeff Van Gundy told us everything we needed to know about these two teams: No one on the Pistons even gave themselves a high-five during layup lines, let alone talk, or seem mildly interested in being there. The Cavs are the better team, the hungrier team, and they are unstoppable at home. It’s hard for me to defend betting on the Pistons, but this trend will prevent me from betting on the Cavs.

 

Conclusion: I think the Cavs will win this game by 20+ but I’m not going to bet it.

Celtics vs. Bulls – Game 2

 

Since 1994, there were 16 occurrences when a team lost Game 1 straight up despite being favored by at least 7 points. Of those 16 teams, 13 of them came back to win the series. That’s good news for Celtics fans. The only 3 to lose the series were the 2007 Mavericks (vs. Golden State) and the 2004 Lakers (vs. Detroit in the Championship) and the 1995 Spurs (vs. Houston).

 

Of those 16 occurrences, the team that lost Game 1 is 12-3-1 (80%) against the spread in Game 2. The team that lost Game 1 has actually covered the spread 5 times in a row dating back to 2005. Recent examples include:

-Pistons in 2008 lose Game 1 to Philadelphia and then win Game 2 by 17

-Mavericks in 2007 lose Game 1 to Golden State and then win Game 2 by 13

-Spurs in 2007 lose Game 1 to Denver and then win Game 2 by 9

 

Of those 16 occurrences, the team that lost Game 1 has won Game 2 15 out of the 16 times. The only exception is the 1995 Spurs.

 

My pick: Boston -8 in Game 2

 

Also, keep your eyes open for the series price. If the books screw this up and offer it at anything less than Celtics -200, I think we should jump all over it.