2009 KornSports NBA Mock Draft

And here is the much anticipated 2009 KornSports Mock Draft of what I think will happen tonight.

No.	Team	Player	Comment
1	L.A. Clippers	Blake Griffin	This is the least suspenseful #1 pick since Tim Duncan in 1997.
2	Memphis	Ricky Rubio	While the latest rumors point towards Thabeet, I’m sticking with Rubio because he’s the sexier pick and he will do more to make this team better, specifically OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay. Plus, if a team trades to pick in this slot, it’s to pick Rubio, not Thabeet.
3	Oklahoma City	Hasheem Thabeet	Although it may seem like a boring pick, 7’3” guys with his shot-blocking ability don’t come around very often. He’ll never be an offensive star but he’ll be better than most people think.
4	Sacramento	Jonny Flynn	This seems to be the consensus pick at this point, but there’s a chance Tyreke Evans could go here.
5	Minnesota	James Harden	Minnesota traded up to secure Harden, a safe pick and the best player available.
6	Minnesota	Jordan Hill	Conventional wisdom would be to take two guards at #5 and #6, considering the T-Wolves already have Al Jefferson and Kevin Love. However, given the injury history of Jefferson, and the depth at point guard in this draft, Hill will be the surprise pick. The T-Wolves will then hope to land either Lawson, Maynor or Jennings at #18.
7	Golden State	Demar Derozan	I know this contradicts with my previous post (below), but by trading Jamal Crawford, that tells me the Warriors are going to take a shooting guard here. Derozan may have the most upside in this entire draft. Curry and Terence Williams are also possibilities here, but Derozan is the player with superstar potential.
8	New York	Stephen Curry	If Curry is still available here, there’s no way the Knicks pass on him. Same thing with Jonny Flynn if Curry is gone. Evans and Jennings are also possibilities.
9	Toronto	Tyreke Evans	Most mocks have Evans in the top 6, so this may be a big surprise to see him fall this far.
10	Milwaukee	Brandon Jennings	Milwaukee needs to somehow win back the fans after giving away Richard Jefferson, so expect them to take an exciting player like Jennings or Ty Lawson.
11	New Jersey	James Johnson	The Nets want a beast and they’ll get their guy.
12	Charlotte	Terence Williams	Apparently there’s a promise in place here. If he’s not available, expect Gerald Henderson to go here.
13	Indiana	Ty Lawson	Either T.J. Ford or Jarrett Jack will be traded to make room for Lawson.
14	Phoenix	Earl Clark	They’ll take the best player available. Clark seems to fit the current system plus he has decent upside.
15	Detroit	Eric Maynor	Of all the point guards in the draft, Maynor may be the most traditional point guard. He would be perfect on a number of teams, including the Pistons and Hawks.
16	Chicago	B.J. Mullens	He won’t have an immediate impact but they have a young enough team where they can wait to let him grow into a player.
17	Philadelphia	Jeff Teague	They would take Lawson or Maynor ahead of Teague. Teague may be able to create his own shot better than any other point guard in this draft.
18	Minnesota	Jrue Holiday	Assuming they waited on the point guard position (see what I wrote at #6), they’ll have the option to take one here. Someone will fall to them and I think it’s going to be Holiday.
19	Atlanta	DeJuan Blair	Conventional wisdom is that they take a point guard, but if Maynor, Lawson, and Teague are all gone, they may go with a big guy like Blair, Hansbrough, or James Johnson. They could certainly use someone like that.
20	Utah	Gerald Henderson	The Jazz could go in any number of directions here but I would expect them to take a wing player. Henderson would be a surprise fall. I could also see them reaching for Chase Budinger.
21	New Orleans	Toney Douglas	Douglas has been overlooked over the past month but his stock seems to be rising at just the right time. He could be a lock-down defender at the 2-guard spot and he is also a good scorer who is ready to play immediately.
22	Portland	Tyler Hansbrough	Hansbrough could go as high as #11, but given his limited skill-set and lack of upside, I think he falls into the 20’s.
23	Sacramento	Austin Daye	It will be a tight battle for ‘last man in the green room’ between Hansbrough and Daye.
24	Dallas	Wayne Ellington
25	Oklahoma City	Omri Casspi
26	Chicago	Taj Gibson
27	Memphis	DaJuan Summers
28	Minnesota	Chase Budinger
29	L.A. Lakers	Nick Calathes
30	Cleveland	Darren Collison

 All prop bets I have made, in order of most confident to least confident:

1. Jonny Flynn will be a lottery pick (-600)
2. Tyler Hansbrough will be picked before Chase Budinger (-300)
3. Over 5.5 ACC players selected in the first round (-160)
4. Under 6.5 Big East players selected in first round (+200)
5. DeJuan Blair will not be a lottery pick (+120)
6. Exactly 3 UNC players will be selected in the first round (-200)
7. Hasheem Thabeet will be the third pick (+250)
8. DeMar Derozan will not be a top 10 pick (even)

 Enjoy the draft tonight.

2009 NBA Draft Props – Part 2

While all the odds on my 3 props listed in Part 1 (below) have stayed the same, I’m liking the Thabeet bet less and less. It’s starting to seem that Memphis may take Thabeet at #2, but who really knows? It’s a complete crapshoot at this point. I have one more prop for you and another that I am strongly considering:

Demar Derozan draft position OVER 10.5 (even) – In other words, I am betting at even odds that Derozan will not be a Top-10 pick. The only team that may seriously consider him in the top 10 is Toronto at #9 because they desperately need an athletic wing. However, their goal should be to do what they can to convince Chris Bosh to stay in Toronto after this season, and I’m not sure they think that selecting such a raw talent who is only 19 years old is the answer. Golden State may shock everyone and pick him at 7 and Milwaukee may also pull the trigger at #10, but I think the odds are that Derozan falls out of the Top 10. Blake Griffin, Hasheem Thabeet, James Harden, Ricky Rubio, Tyreke Evans, and Stephen Curry are the 6 guys that are essentially locks to go in the top 10. Jonny Flynn and Jordan Hill appear to be very safe bets as well. After that, it really is a crapshoot between Derozan, Terence Williams, Jrue Holiday, James Johnson, Earl Clark, Brandon Jennings, Gerald Henderson, and Ty Lawson. Again, given the near certainty of the top 8 guys, and the uncertainty of the final 2 spots, the ‘over’ in this bet appears to be the play.

Jonny Flynn will be a lottery pick (-600) – This may be an opportunity to make some quick easy money at a reasonable price. Flynn is rumored to be Sacramento’s top choice at #4. If the Kings pass on him, he could then be selected by the Timberwolves at #5 or #6. If he’s still available at #8, I think the Knicks would select him assuming that Stephen Curry is off the board. If Flynn continues to fall, Milwaukee at #10 is probably his basement, but Indiana or Phoenix at #13 and #14, respectively, may snatch him up if he somehow falls to them. Of course, if he still is available past #10, a team may trade up to select him. I haven’t taken this yet because you do need to be 85% sure that he’ll be a top-14 pick, and this draft seems to be extremely difficult to predict. I’ll let you know what I decide to do, however, if you wait too long, the price may go up.

KornSports 2009 Mock Draft coming tomorrow.

2009 NBA Draft Props – Part 1

Here are 3 props that I would recommend wagering on. I will provide more detail with a full mock draft by Thursday, but for now, this is what I’m taking. In the next few days the odds will move quickly as the rumor mill heats up, so get in while you can! Stay tuned for more in the next few days. Obviously I think all three of these are winners, but the fact that they are all ‘plus’ lines makes me love them so much more.

Hasheem Thabeet will be the 3rd pick (+250) – Based on what I’m reading, I feel fairly confident that Memphis will not take Thabeet at #2, especially after he skipped a workout with them recently despite the fact that their owner flew in from L.A. just to see him. Also, if Memphis trades the pick, which seems like there is a pretty decent chance of happening, it will most likely be because another team wants to trade up to select Ricky Rubio, not Thabeet. All the trade rumors are for teams trading up for Rubio. Even if Memphis keeps the pick, I have a feeling it will be Rubio. Furthermore, based on what I’ve read, the Thunder are not going to pass on Thabeet if he is available at #3. I think it makes sense because of how thin they are in the middle, and guys with Thabeet’s skill set don’t come around that often. He would be perfect for them especially because he doesn’t need the basketball to be effective. +250 is good value here so I’m buying.

Under 6.5 Big East players selected in the first round (+200) – Hasheem Thabeet, Jonny Flynn, Dejaun Blair, Terence Williams, and Earl Clark are the 5 guys who are essentially locks. The next 2 guys who are on the bubble are Sam Young and Dajuan Summers. After that you have guys like Jeff Adrien, Dante Cunningham, Jerel McNeal, Wes Matthews and Paul Harris, none of which I have once seen in the first round of any mock draft, and most aren’t even considered to be top-45 selections. After the 5 locks, I don’t think I have seen one mock draft that projects anyone else to go in the Top 25. I think there is a great chance that either Young or Summers falls out of the first round, and possibly even both could fall out. I actually would have thought that the ‘Under’ in this bet would be favored, so at +200 I am loving this.

DeJuan Blair will not be a lottery pick (+120) – Plain and simple, the only team that may select Blair in the top 14 is Indiana at #13. Most teams aren’t interested in a 6’7” center who tore both ACLs while in college. Furthermore, he wasn’t one of the 13 players invited to the green room (the invitees are agreed upon by the teams, who have the best idea who will be the top selections). Odds are that Blair falls out of the top 14, so I will take the value at +120.

Also, keep an eye on:
-3 UNC players will be selected in the 1st round (even)
-Stephen Curry will be drafted before Jonny Flynn (-170)
-Hasheem Thabeet will get drafted before James Harden (-300)

Stay tuned for more (hopefully), as well as a full mock draft on Thursday.