The 2009 ESPY Awards will be taped Wednesday, July 15 and televised on Sunday, July 19. It is critical to take into consideration the fact that fans, via online voting, will determine the winners in all categories (except the Arthur Ashe Courage Award and other special awards). Let’s dive right into the best bets.
Best NBA Player
Dwight Howard, +600
Dwyane Wade, +600
Kobe Bryant, +110
LeBron James, +110
It is a near-certainty that either Kobe Bryant or LeBron James wins this award. Plain and simple, they are the 2 best players in the NBA (LeBron won the Regular Season MVP and Kobe won the Finals MVP), and they are also the 2 most popular and most widely recognized NBA players world-wide. The fact that they are both a ‘plus’ line means that you can bet them both separately. Let’s say you bet $100 on each – you’ll lose $100 on one bet and win $110 on the other bet. In other words, you’d be risking $200 to win $10, and you’d essentially be making the following bet: “Either LeBron or Kobe will win this award, -2000”. At -2000, you’d have to be 95% confident that you’ll win the bet. I am 99.9% confident that one of these guys will win the bet. It may not seem worth it to lock up this money for a couple weeks, but to me it’s easy money, and you’ll win your money back with interest in time to start making some more NFL bets.
Bets:
-Kobe Bryant, +110
-LeBron James, +110
Best NFL Player
Adrian Peterson, +250
James Harrison, +250
Kurt Warner, +250
Larry Fitzgerald, +400
Peyton Manning, +400
This award appears to be wide open, however, I don’t think that James Harrison or Kurt Warner have a chance at winning. A defensive player has never won the ‘Best NFL Player’ award, and it’s not like Harrison is that dominant or that recognizable that fans would vote for him over the more popular offensive players. As far as Kurt Warner is concerned, most people voting for a quarterback would vote for Peyton Manning over him (Manning was the MVP), and I would think if someone were to vote for an Arizona Cardinal, it would be Larry Fitzgerald (a superstar in the playoffs and arguably the best and most exciting receiver in the NFL), not Warner. That leaves Peterson (+250), Fitzgerald (+400) and Manning (+400). Do you see where I’m getting at? I’m going to take all 3, and as long as one of them wins, I’m up money. Allow me to illustrate: Let’s say I bet $50 on each (risking $150 total). If Peterson wins, I win $125 on my Peterson bet but lose $50 on each of my 2 other bets, for a net gain of $25. If Manning or Fitzgerald wins, I have a net gain of $100. In this scenario, I would be risking $150 to win either $25, $100 or $100, and the only way I lose the $150 is if James Harrison or Kurt Warner wins this award, both of which appear to be unlikely outcomes.
Bets:
-Adrian Peterson, +250
-Larry Fitzgerald, +400
-Peyton Manning, +400
Best NHL Player
Alexander Ovechkin, +180
Evgeni Malkin, +300
Pavel Datsyuk, +600
Sidney Crosby, even
I don’t know much about hockey, but I do know that Sidney Crosby won this award in each of the last 2 years. This year, he was arguably the best player in the league again, and was the best player on the team that won the Stanley Cup, so I’m thinking he has a greater-than-50% chance to win this award.
Bets:
-Sidney Crosby, even
Best Male Athlete
Jimmie Johnson, +3000
Kobe Bryant, +400
LeBron James, +400
Michael Phelps, -400
I think almost every single American voter will vote for Michael Phelps in this category, partially because it’s too difficult to choose between LeBron James and Kobe Bryant. If the minus line goes up any higher, I would hesitate, but at -400, I think you’re still getting pretty good value.
Bets
-Michael Phelps, -400
Others I considered but did not take (yet):
-Matt Ryan – Best breakthrough athlete (even), vs. Derrick Rose, Evan Longoria, Shawn Johnson
-Michael Phelps, Best record-breaking performance (-1000), vs. Larry Fitzgerald, Phil Jackson, Usain Bolt
-Rafael Nadal (+125) OR Usain Bolt (+200) (or both), Best international male athlete, vs. Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Pau Gasol
Let’s go fans, now it’s up to you!
Posted by kornstein999 
