2009 NFL Over/Under Predictions – Wins for all 32 teams

Reference is made to my 2009 NFL Over/Under Wins Predictions, Trends, and Analysis article, which is the primary basis for my final predictions on all 32 teams over/under win total for the 2009 NFL season. The teams are ordered from highest over/under to lowest, based on the odds posted on sportsbook.com as of Saturday, September 5, 2009.

New England Patriots – Over 11.5 (-160)
The Pats decreased their win total from 16 in 2007 to 11 in 2008. A decrease of at least 3 games results in an increase the following season 70% of the time. They should dominate their division and I only see 2 games in which they might be underdogs – Week 10 at Indianapolis and possibly Week 12 at New Orleans.
KornSports Prediction: 14-2

Pittsburgh Steelers – Over 10.5 (-150)
They’ll go at least 4-2 in the division and at least 3-1 against the AFC West (they play San Diego at home). They will also go at least 2-2 against the NFC North (vs. MIN, vs. GB, @ CHI, @ DET), and their last 2 games are vs. Tennessee and at Miami. I’m not crazy about this on either side, especially with the high cost of betting the over, but they are the defending Super Bowl champs with a great defense, top quarterback, and strong home field advantage. Also, it’s a much easier schedule than last year.
KornSports Prediction: 12-4

San Diego Chargers – Over 10 (-180)
I bet the over in May when it was 9.5 (-140) and wrote about it here. I still like it at 10.
KornSports Prediction: 12-4

Indianapolis Colts – Over 10 (-125)
They’ve won at least 12 games in every season since 2003 (6 years in a row!). The defense looks weak, but doesn’t it look weak every season? Despite the coaching changes, they still have Peyton Manning and his presence alone should be good enough for at least 10 wins.
KornSports Prediction: 11-5

Philadelphia Eagles – Over 9.5 (-160)
I think the Eagles will get to 10 but don’t think it’s worth the high price to bet it mainly because of the tough division plus non-division games at San Diego, at Atlanta, and at Carolina. They should be fine based on their talent and experience, but it will be a very competitive NFC.
KornSports Prediction: 11-5

New York Giants – Under 9.5 (+120)
In the super-competitive NFC East, any weakness can severely hurt your chances at winning 10 games. For the Giants, the losses of Derrick Ward, Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress will without a doubt hurt the offense. I still think there’s a great chance they get to at least 10 wins with their strong defense and strong offensive line, but the under at +120 seems like the smarter bet (the over is at -150).
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

Minnesota Vikings – Under 9.5 (+105)
Minnesota has increased its win total from 6 in 2006 to 8 in 2007 to 10 in 2008. As discussed in my May article, since 2002, only 1 out of 9 teams has increased their win total for three consecutive seasons, meaning history is against the Vikings reaching 11 this year. They face stiff competition in the division from Green Bay and Chicago, and I’m not at all sold on their quarterback or coaching situations. Their rock solid defense and running game will keep them close.
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

Green Bay Packers – Over 9 (-140)
The Packers won 13 games in 2007 and then fell to 6 in 2008. Their defense had a lot of injuries last year and they still lost a lot of close games. Teams that decrease their win total by at least 6 games are more likely than not to increase their win total by 4 the following year. Given a healthier defense and a very strong offense led by the improved Aaron Rodgers, the Packers should win at least 9. I’d take the over because I think it’s more likely that they win 10 or more than 8 or less.
KornSports Prediction: 10-6

New Orleans Saints – Over 9 (-130)
Their offense will continue to roll and their defense figures to be slightly better. I also think Carolina and Tampa Bay took a step back this offseason. They will also benefit this year from finishing in last place (they play the Lions and Rams as a result). They won 8 games last year; there’s no way they don’t improve from that.
KornSports Prediction: 11-5

Dallas Cowboys – Over 9 (-125)
For the same reason the Pats will win at least 12, history says the Cowboys have a 70% chance to win at least 10. I don’t love the Cowboys and I’m not betting it, but I can’t go against such a statistic. There certainly is enough talent on both sides of the ball to get it done.
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

Tennessee Titans – Under 9 (-115)
I bet the under in May when it was 9 (+120) and wrote about it here. I still like it for the same reasons that I wrote about then.
KornSports Prediction: 7-9

Baltimore Ravens – Under 8.5 (+150)
They certainly could win at least 9 but it’s not worth it for the price (-180). Last year they won 11 with a last-place schedule (they won 5 games in 2007). This year they have a second-place schedule which means games against New England and Indianapolis. They also have non-division games at San Diego, at Minnesota, and at Green Bay. Since 2002, of the 19 teams that have increased their win total by at least 5 games, 15 of them (79%) saw their win total decrease by at least 3 games the following season.
KornSports Prediction: 8-8

Chicago Bears – Under 8.5 (+130)
Not worth it to me to take the over at -160. The Bears won 9 last year and 7 the year before. They still face stiff competition in their division from Green Bay and Minnesota. Chicago’s defense may not be as great as it once was, and integrating Cutler into this offense is no guarantee for success, even though the offense has looked great in the preseason. The receivers are not very strong. Cutler did only win 8 games last year for the Broncos in a weak AFC West.
KornSports Prediction: 8-8

Atlanta Falcons – Under 8.5 (even)
Similar to Baltimore, historical evidence projects a ‘back-to-earth’ season for the Falcons, who increased their win total from 4 games in 2007 to 11 in 2008. The evidence suggests a 79% chance they win 8 games maximum. The tougher schedule this year certainly supports that suggestion (AFC East and NFC East, vs. Chicago, at San Francisco this year compared to last year’s schedule of AFC West, NFC North, vs. St. Louis, at Philadelphia). The offense looks great on paper but the defense will prevent them from making the playoffs. They also won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year.
KornSports Prediction: 8-8

Houston Texans – Over 8.5 (-115)
This is a franchise that has never won more than 8 games but I’m jumping on board with those that believe this is the year they finally go over the hump.
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

Arizona Cardinals – Over 8.5 (-115)
Despite going to the Super Bowl last year, the Cardinals only won 9 games. You can believe the ‘Super Bowl loser’ trend or you can believe that Arizona is still the best team in a weak division. I’ll go with the latter.
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

Carolina Panthers – Under 8.5 (-130)
The Panthers haven’t done anything this offseason to get better while Atlanta and New Orleans both appear to have improved. In fact, Carolina’s defense will probably struggle mightily after losing star defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu for the season. Much like Atlanta, Carolina’s schedule will be much more difficult this season, including non-division road games at the Giants, Dallas, Arizona, New England, and the Jets. Carolina increased its win total by 5 games last season, so much like Baltimore and Atlanta, history says there is a 79% chance that they win 9 maximum this year.
KornSports Prediction: 6-10

Seattle Seahawks – Under 8 (+130)
History says Seattle will win at least 8 (they won 10 in 2007 and 4 in 2008), but I’m thinking this team is closer to the 2008 version than the 2007 version. Walter Jones being out for the year is a huge loss.
KornSports Prediction: 7-9

Jacksonville Jaguars – Over 8 (-125)
History says Jacksonville will win at least 9 (they decreased their win total from 10 in 2007 to 4 in 2008). They were hurt majorly by injuries last season, so it wouldn’t be overly surprising to see them return to the level that they played at from 2004-2007 in which they won at least 8 every season. The tough division and lack of an explosive offense remains a concern.
KornSports Prediction: 8-8

Washington Redskins – Over 8 (-120)
I understand how tough the division is, but with the addition of Albert Haynesworth, this defense has a chance to be the best in the league. I also like the fact they play the AFC West and have the last place schedule (vs. St. Louis, @ Detroit). I think there’s a better chance they win 9 or more than they win 7 or less.
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

New York Jets – Under 7.5 (-135)
Similar to Atlanta, Carolina, and Baltimore, due to their 5-game increase in wins last season, history says there’s a 79% chance that they win at most 6 this year. I’d hate to say it, but with a new head coach, a rookie quarterback, and a lackluster receiving corps, the under is probably the way to go.
KornSports Prediction: 7-9

Buffalo Bills – Under 7.5 (-105)
They’ve won 7 games three years in a row and I don’t think there are enough improvements for this team to get to 8-8. The fact that they fired their offensive coordinator less than 10 days before their first game is not a very good sign. The offensive line is in shambles and it’s only a matter of time before something blows up with Terrell Owens, who’s 35 and hasn’t practiced in three weeks.
KornSports Prediction: 6-10

San Francisco 49ers – Under 7 (+115)
They haven’t won more than 7 games since 2002. This could possibly be the year where they surprise and win the division, but I think the under is the safer choice, especially given the prices (over is -145).
KornSports Prediction: 7-9

Cincinnati Bengals – Over 7 (-140)
I bet the over in May when it was 6 (-160) and wrote about it here. Looks like the pick is gaining some momentum as it shot up a whole game. Every year there is a team that surprises and wins 10+ games after winning 5 or less the previous year. Seattle and Jacksonville are popular choices to pull it off this year but I’m going with the Bengals. A healthy Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco, Chris Henry, an improved defense and an easy schedule will do the trick.
KornSports Prediction: 10-6

Miami Dolphins – Under 7 (even)
I bet the under in May when it was 7 (-105) and wrote about it here. Not much has changed and I am sticking with the pick.
KornSports Prediction: 6-10

Cleveland – Under 6.5 (-130)
The fact that Cleveland went from 10 wins in 2007 to only 4 wins in 2008 fits them into the category of ‘more likely than not to increase their win total by at least 4 games’. However, I’m making an exception on this one because I think they’re a distant fourth in their division and they still have a lot of holes on both sides of the ball.
KornSports Prediction: 5-11

Denver – Under 6.5 (-190)
It’s been a really ugly offseason in Denver. The defense is still a mess, as is the quarterback and Brandon Marshall situations. Most importantly, their schedule is brutal. Outside of the 4 games against Kansas City and Oakland and a home game against Cleveland, I expect them to be big underdogs in the rest of their games (NFC East, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. New England, at Baltimore, at Indianapolis, at Cincinnati). Given the current state of the franchise and the talent level, it’s hard for me to chalk up more than 5 wins for this team.
KornSports Prediction: 4-12

Kansas City Chiefs – Under 6 (-115)
I’m pretty sure that this team still isn’t any good (they’ve won 6 games combined in the past 2 seasons), so I’m going to say there’s a better chance they win 5 or less than they win 7 or more.
KornSports Prediction: 5-11

Oakland Raiders – Under 6 (-150)
The rules say that 89% of the time, teams who increase their win total for 2 consecutive years will not increase for a third straight season. Well, Oakland went from 2 in 2006 to 4 in 2007 to 5 in 2008, so they may be exempt from this trend. However, wouldn’t you say they’re still However, wouldn’t you say they’re still one of the worst 8 teams in the league? Every year since 2002, none of the bottom 8 teams won more than 6. So there you go.
KornSports Prediction: 5-11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Under 5.5 (even)
I don’t think they’ll be as bad as many people are predicting, but with 4 games against the NFC East, 4 games against the AFC East, 6 games against the rest of their division, and a game at Seattle and home against Green Bay, it’s hard for me to justify predicting more than 6 wins for this team.
KornSports Prediction: 5-11

St. Louis Rams – Under 5.5 (+130)
The Rams won 5 combined games the past 2 years. I think they will improve with a healthy Steven Jackson and a revamped offensive line but see what I wrote about the Raiders. I still think they’ll be in the bottom fourth of the league, which means it will be highly unlikely they win 7. I’ll take the +130 and take my chances.
KornSports Prediction: 5-11

Detroit Lions – Under 4.5 (even)
They won 0 games last year, do you really think they will win 5 or more this year? They don’t project to be favored in one game this year with the exception of possibly 2 home games vs. St. Louis and Cleveland.
KornSports Prediction: 4-12

Yes, the predicted wins for all 32 teams added up to 256. No need to recount.

Best Bets:
San Diego – Over 10 (-180) (took it at over 9.5 -140)
New Orleans – Over 9 (-130)
Tennessee – Under 9 (-115) (took it at under 9 +120)
Carolina – Under 8.5 (-130)
Cincinnati – Over 7 (-140) (took it at over 6 -160)
Miami – Under 7 (even) (took it at under 7 -105)
Denver – Under 6.5 (-190)

And now, just for fun, my playoff predictions:
AFC Division Winners: New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego
AFC Wildcard: Cincinnati, Houston

NFC Division Winners: Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, Arizona
NFC Wildcard: Minnesota, Dallas

AFC Championship: Pittsburgh over New England
NFC Championship: Philadelphia over New Orleans

Super Bowl: Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

I’ll check back at the end of the year

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