NFL 2009 – Week 2 Player Props – Best Bets

After going 6-3 last week, I have another 9 for you in Week 2.

Santana Moss over 3.5 receptions (-150) – In 16 games last year, Moss had at least 4 catches in 13 games. Last week he only had 2, but they will surely try to get him more involved against the Rams.

Sean Ryan will not score a touchdown (-240) – The dude has 13 career catches in 34 games.

Kurt Warner over 2.5 touchdowns plus interceptions (-115) – This went ‘over’ in 12 of 20 games last year and ‘over’ in Week 1. The Cardinals, as always, will throw it a lot in Jacksonville, for better or for worse.

Frank Gore under 3.5 receptions (-125) – Gore hasn’t had 4 catches since Week 8 of the 2008 season. Something about the Singletary regime…

Robert Royal over 3 receptions (-110) – Royal led the Browns in targets in Week 1 with 9. He ended up with 4 catches, and the Browns have very little depth at receiver. Makes sense that Quinn will love his tight end.

Antonio Gates over 4 receptions (even) – Gates is a good bet to have at least 4 receptions in any game, especially now that he’s healthy and Tomlinson isn’t playing.

Randy Moss under 6.5 receptions (even) – Sure, Moss had 12 catches in Week 1, but let’s not over-react to one week. I’m not saying Darrelle Revis will shut down Moss, but he is an elite cover-corner and he did a pretty good job last week against Andre Johnson. Last year, in 16 games, Moss had 7 or more catches only 2 times. Yes, that was with Matt Cassel, but still. In 2007, with Tom Brady, Moss had 7 ore more catches only 6 times in 19 games. Chances are Moss won’t get 7 against Revis and the Jets.

Heath Miller under 4.5 receptions (-120) – It just seems too high. He had 5 catches in only 3 of 14 games last season.

Peyton Manning under 275.5 passing yards (-115) – Manning had over 275 yards in only 4 of 15 games last season. Colts/Dolphins should be a very fast game (lots of short completions, running time off the clock, etc.). No Anthony Gonzalez again so Reggie Wayne will have to rack up 130+ yards again in order for Peyton to reach this high total.

Korn’s YTD player props: 6-3, up $18.37 if I were to bet $10 on each game (20.4% return on investment)

NFL 2009 – Week 1 Player Props – Best Bets

Those who followed me each week last year know that I was 69-34 on my player props which resulted in a 14.8% return on investment assuming you wagered the same amount on each prop. It’s only Week 1 but I see 9 bets that I like.

DeSean Jackson over 4 receptions (-105) – Last year, including the playoffs, DeSean Jackson had at least 4 catches in 12 out of 19 games. The Eagles love to throw the ball, they’ll throw the ball plenty on Sunday against the Panthers, and Jackson will be McNabb’s number one receiver this year. Jackson is in line for a huge season this year. He should easily catch at least 4 passes on Sunday.

Eddie Royal first catch under 9.5 yards (-115) – Wouldn’t it make sense for Denver’s first pass to be a short pass to the sideline to Royal in order to give Kyle Orton some confidence on the road? Royal only averaged 10.8 yards per catch last season. If you exclude his 2 longest receptions (93 yards and 59 yards), his average comes down to only 9.3 yards per catch.

Jamal Lewis first carry under 3.5 yards (-140) – The Vikings were the best team in the league against the run last season, giving up only 3.3 yards per carry. They figure to be just as good this season, especially with the Williams Wall eligible to play in Week 1. Lewis averaged only 3.6 yards per carry last season and has looked awful during the preseason. I know this bet only comes down to one carry, but I’m thinking there’s at least a 60% chance that the Vikings stuff Jamal Lewis on Cleveland’s first run of the game.

Owen Daniels over 3.5 receptions (-135) – Out of the 12 games that quarterback Matt Schaub played in last year, Daniels caught at least 4 balls in 9 of them. With starting wide receiver Kevin Walter likely out on Sunday, Daniels should see even more looks. A line of 3.5 is surprisingly low.

Kevin Smith will score a touchdown (+140) – Smith scored 8 touchdowns last season and he’ll see an even larger role this year. There should be plenty of points scored in this game, so I was surprised to see this at only +140.

Ray Rice over 3 receptions (+110) – If the preseason is indication, Ray Rice is poised for a Brian Westbrook type role in the Ravens offense this year. In their third preseason game, Rice had 8 catches for 67 yards. He will be on the field the most out of any Ravens running back, and given Baltimore’s lack of receiving options, Rice looks like a great bet to catch at least 3 passes.

Domenik Hixon under 3.5 receptions (-115) – Who really knows who will step up for the Giants at the wide receiver position? Between Hixon, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, Sinorice Moss, Kevin Boss, and the running backs, Eli Manning figures to spread the ball around plenty, at least early in the season. In 17 games last year, Manning only had more than 20 completions once, so I’d say there’s better than a 50% chance that Hixon doesn’t catch 4 passes against the Redskins on Sunday in what figures to be a very defense-dominated game.

Bernard Berrian will not score a touchdown (-185) – Yes, Berrian scored 7 touchdowns last season, but he’s questionable to even play with a hamstring injury. He hasn’t seen any action with Brett Favre, there are plenty of other receiver options for Minnesota (Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe), and the Vikings will probably focus on running the ball all game against the Browns.

Donald Lee will not score a touchdown (-240) – Jermichael Finley will be the Packers best tight end this season, not Donald Lee.

Good luck this week and be sure to check back every Sunday morning before kick-off!

2009 NFL Over/Under Predictions – Wins for all 32 teams

Reference is made to my 2009 NFL Over/Under Wins Predictions, Trends, and Analysis article, which is the primary basis for my final predictions on all 32 teams over/under win total for the 2009 NFL season. The teams are ordered from highest over/under to lowest, based on the odds posted on sportsbook.com as of Saturday, September 5, 2009.

New England Patriots – Over 11.5 (-160)
The Pats decreased their win total from 16 in 2007 to 11 in 2008. A decrease of at least 3 games results in an increase the following season 70% of the time. They should dominate their division and I only see 2 games in which they might be underdogs – Week 10 at Indianapolis and possibly Week 12 at New Orleans.
KornSports Prediction: 14-2

Pittsburgh Steelers – Over 10.5 (-150)
They’ll go at least 4-2 in the division and at least 3-1 against the AFC West (they play San Diego at home). They will also go at least 2-2 against the NFC North (vs. MIN, vs. GB, @ CHI, @ DET), and their last 2 games are vs. Tennessee and at Miami. I’m not crazy about this on either side, especially with the high cost of betting the over, but they are the defending Super Bowl champs with a great defense, top quarterback, and strong home field advantage. Also, it’s a much easier schedule than last year.
KornSports Prediction: 12-4

San Diego Chargers – Over 10 (-180)
I bet the over in May when it was 9.5 (-140) and wrote about it here. I still like it at 10.
KornSports Prediction: 12-4

Indianapolis Colts – Over 10 (-125)
They’ve won at least 12 games in every season since 2003 (6 years in a row!). The defense looks weak, but doesn’t it look weak every season? Despite the coaching changes, they still have Peyton Manning and his presence alone should be good enough for at least 10 wins.
KornSports Prediction: 11-5

Philadelphia Eagles – Over 9.5 (-160)
I think the Eagles will get to 10 but don’t think it’s worth the high price to bet it mainly because of the tough division plus non-division games at San Diego, at Atlanta, and at Carolina. They should be fine based on their talent and experience, but it will be a very competitive NFC.
KornSports Prediction: 11-5

New York Giants – Under 9.5 (+120)
In the super-competitive NFC East, any weakness can severely hurt your chances at winning 10 games. For the Giants, the losses of Derrick Ward, Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress will without a doubt hurt the offense. I still think there’s a great chance they get to at least 10 wins with their strong defense and strong offensive line, but the under at +120 seems like the smarter bet (the over is at -150).
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

Minnesota Vikings – Under 9.5 (+105)
Minnesota has increased its win total from 6 in 2006 to 8 in 2007 to 10 in 2008. As discussed in my May article, since 2002, only 1 out of 9 teams has increased their win total for three consecutive seasons, meaning history is against the Vikings reaching 11 this year. They face stiff competition in the division from Green Bay and Chicago, and I’m not at all sold on their quarterback or coaching situations. Their rock solid defense and running game will keep them close.
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

Green Bay Packers – Over 9 (-140)
The Packers won 13 games in 2007 and then fell to 6 in 2008. Their defense had a lot of injuries last year and they still lost a lot of close games. Teams that decrease their win total by at least 6 games are more likely than not to increase their win total by 4 the following year. Given a healthier defense and a very strong offense led by the improved Aaron Rodgers, the Packers should win at least 9. I’d take the over because I think it’s more likely that they win 10 or more than 8 or less.
KornSports Prediction: 10-6

New Orleans Saints – Over 9 (-130)
Their offense will continue to roll and their defense figures to be slightly better. I also think Carolina and Tampa Bay took a step back this offseason. They will also benefit this year from finishing in last place (they play the Lions and Rams as a result). They won 8 games last year; there’s no way they don’t improve from that.
KornSports Prediction: 11-5

Dallas Cowboys – Over 9 (-125)
For the same reason the Pats will win at least 12, history says the Cowboys have a 70% chance to win at least 10. I don’t love the Cowboys and I’m not betting it, but I can’t go against such a statistic. There certainly is enough talent on both sides of the ball to get it done.
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

Tennessee Titans – Under 9 (-115)
I bet the under in May when it was 9 (+120) and wrote about it here. I still like it for the same reasons that I wrote about then.
KornSports Prediction: 7-9

Baltimore Ravens – Under 8.5 (+150)
They certainly could win at least 9 but it’s not worth it for the price (-180). Last year they won 11 with a last-place schedule (they won 5 games in 2007). This year they have a second-place schedule which means games against New England and Indianapolis. They also have non-division games at San Diego, at Minnesota, and at Green Bay. Since 2002, of the 19 teams that have increased their win total by at least 5 games, 15 of them (79%) saw their win total decrease by at least 3 games the following season.
KornSports Prediction: 8-8

Chicago Bears – Under 8.5 (+130)
Not worth it to me to take the over at -160. The Bears won 9 last year and 7 the year before. They still face stiff competition in their division from Green Bay and Minnesota. Chicago’s defense may not be as great as it once was, and integrating Cutler into this offense is no guarantee for success, even though the offense has looked great in the preseason. The receivers are not very strong. Cutler did only win 8 games last year for the Broncos in a weak AFC West.
KornSports Prediction: 8-8

Atlanta Falcons – Under 8.5 (even)
Similar to Baltimore, historical evidence projects a ‘back-to-earth’ season for the Falcons, who increased their win total from 4 games in 2007 to 11 in 2008. The evidence suggests a 79% chance they win 8 games maximum. The tougher schedule this year certainly supports that suggestion (AFC East and NFC East, vs. Chicago, at San Francisco this year compared to last year’s schedule of AFC West, NFC North, vs. St. Louis, at Philadelphia). The offense looks great on paper but the defense will prevent them from making the playoffs. They also won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year.
KornSports Prediction: 8-8

Houston Texans – Over 8.5 (-115)
This is a franchise that has never won more than 8 games but I’m jumping on board with those that believe this is the year they finally go over the hump.
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

Arizona Cardinals – Over 8.5 (-115)
Despite going to the Super Bowl last year, the Cardinals only won 9 games. You can believe the ‘Super Bowl loser’ trend or you can believe that Arizona is still the best team in a weak division. I’ll go with the latter.
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

Carolina Panthers – Under 8.5 (-130)
The Panthers haven’t done anything this offseason to get better while Atlanta and New Orleans both appear to have improved. In fact, Carolina’s defense will probably struggle mightily after losing star defensive tackle Maake Kemoeatu for the season. Much like Atlanta, Carolina’s schedule will be much more difficult this season, including non-division road games at the Giants, Dallas, Arizona, New England, and the Jets. Carolina increased its win total by 5 games last season, so much like Baltimore and Atlanta, history says there is a 79% chance that they win 9 maximum this year.
KornSports Prediction: 6-10

Seattle Seahawks – Under 8 (+130)
History says Seattle will win at least 8 (they won 10 in 2007 and 4 in 2008), but I’m thinking this team is closer to the 2008 version than the 2007 version. Walter Jones being out for the year is a huge loss.
KornSports Prediction: 7-9

Jacksonville Jaguars – Over 8 (-125)
History says Jacksonville will win at least 9 (they decreased their win total from 10 in 2007 to 4 in 2008). They were hurt majorly by injuries last season, so it wouldn’t be overly surprising to see them return to the level that they played at from 2004-2007 in which they won at least 8 every season. The tough division and lack of an explosive offense remains a concern.
KornSports Prediction: 8-8

Washington Redskins – Over 8 (-120)
I understand how tough the division is, but with the addition of Albert Haynesworth, this defense has a chance to be the best in the league. I also like the fact they play the AFC West and have the last place schedule (vs. St. Louis, @ Detroit). I think there’s a better chance they win 9 or more than they win 7 or less.
KornSports Prediction: 9-7

New York Jets – Under 7.5 (-135)
Similar to Atlanta, Carolina, and Baltimore, due to their 5-game increase in wins last season, history says there’s a 79% chance that they win at most 6 this year. I’d hate to say it, but with a new head coach, a rookie quarterback, and a lackluster receiving corps, the under is probably the way to go.
KornSports Prediction: 7-9

Buffalo Bills – Under 7.5 (-105)
They’ve won 7 games three years in a row and I don’t think there are enough improvements for this team to get to 8-8. The fact that they fired their offensive coordinator less than 10 days before their first game is not a very good sign. The offensive line is in shambles and it’s only a matter of time before something blows up with Terrell Owens, who’s 35 and hasn’t practiced in three weeks.
KornSports Prediction: 6-10

San Francisco 49ers – Under 7 (+115)
They haven’t won more than 7 games since 2002. This could possibly be the year where they surprise and win the division, but I think the under is the safer choice, especially given the prices (over is -145).
KornSports Prediction: 7-9

Cincinnati Bengals – Over 7 (-140)
I bet the over in May when it was 6 (-160) and wrote about it here. Looks like the pick is gaining some momentum as it shot up a whole game. Every year there is a team that surprises and wins 10+ games after winning 5 or less the previous year. Seattle and Jacksonville are popular choices to pull it off this year but I’m going with the Bengals. A healthy Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco, Chris Henry, an improved defense and an easy schedule will do the trick.
KornSports Prediction: 10-6

Miami Dolphins – Under 7 (even)
I bet the under in May when it was 7 (-105) and wrote about it here. Not much has changed and I am sticking with the pick.
KornSports Prediction: 6-10

Cleveland – Under 6.5 (-130)
The fact that Cleveland went from 10 wins in 2007 to only 4 wins in 2008 fits them into the category of ‘more likely than not to increase their win total by at least 4 games’. However, I’m making an exception on this one because I think they’re a distant fourth in their division and they still have a lot of holes on both sides of the ball.
KornSports Prediction: 5-11

Denver – Under 6.5 (-190)
It’s been a really ugly offseason in Denver. The defense is still a mess, as is the quarterback and Brandon Marshall situations. Most importantly, their schedule is brutal. Outside of the 4 games against Kansas City and Oakland and a home game against Cleveland, I expect them to be big underdogs in the rest of their games (NFC East, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. New England, at Baltimore, at Indianapolis, at Cincinnati). Given the current state of the franchise and the talent level, it’s hard for me to chalk up more than 5 wins for this team.
KornSports Prediction: 4-12

Kansas City Chiefs – Under 6 (-115)
I’m pretty sure that this team still isn’t any good (they’ve won 6 games combined in the past 2 seasons), so I’m going to say there’s a better chance they win 5 or less than they win 7 or more.
KornSports Prediction: 5-11

Oakland Raiders – Under 6 (-150)
The rules say that 89% of the time, teams who increase their win total for 2 consecutive years will not increase for a third straight season. Well, Oakland went from 2 in 2006 to 4 in 2007 to 5 in 2008, so they may be exempt from this trend. However, wouldn’t you say they’re still However, wouldn’t you say they’re still one of the worst 8 teams in the league? Every year since 2002, none of the bottom 8 teams won more than 6. So there you go.
KornSports Prediction: 5-11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Under 5.5 (even)
I don’t think they’ll be as bad as many people are predicting, but with 4 games against the NFC East, 4 games against the AFC East, 6 games against the rest of their division, and a game at Seattle and home against Green Bay, it’s hard for me to justify predicting more than 6 wins for this team.
KornSports Prediction: 5-11

St. Louis Rams – Under 5.5 (+130)
The Rams won 5 combined games the past 2 years. I think they will improve with a healthy Steven Jackson and a revamped offensive line but see what I wrote about the Raiders. I still think they’ll be in the bottom fourth of the league, which means it will be highly unlikely they win 7. I’ll take the +130 and take my chances.
KornSports Prediction: 5-11

Detroit Lions – Under 4.5 (even)
They won 0 games last year, do you really think they will win 5 or more this year? They don’t project to be favored in one game this year with the exception of possibly 2 home games vs. St. Louis and Cleveland.
KornSports Prediction: 4-12

Yes, the predicted wins for all 32 teams added up to 256. No need to recount.

Best Bets:
San Diego – Over 10 (-180) (took it at over 9.5 -140)
New Orleans – Over 9 (-130)
Tennessee – Under 9 (-115) (took it at under 9 +120)
Carolina – Under 8.5 (-130)
Cincinnati – Over 7 (-140) (took it at over 6 -160)
Miami – Under 7 (even) (took it at under 7 -105)
Denver – Under 6.5 (-190)

And now, just for fun, my playoff predictions:
AFC Division Winners: New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego
AFC Wildcard: Cincinnati, Houston

NFC Division Winners: Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, Arizona
NFC Wildcard: Minnesota, Dallas

AFC Championship: Pittsburgh over New England
NFC Championship: Philadelphia over New Orleans

Super Bowl: Philadelphia over Pittsburgh

I’ll check back at the end of the year

2009 NFL Season Player Props – Top 20 ‘Best Bets’

There are a ton of 2009 NFL season props available on sportsbook.com. These are my favorite, in no particular order, and I warn you that the odds may have shifted for some since I took them. I was 8-2 last year with my 2008 season props and this year I have 20 to offer. Due to the tremendous impact and common occurrence of injuries, I do not recommend to go big on any single one of these. I think it’s a better strategy to spread your risk out among several of these props, and you’ll be more likely to come out ahead.

Quarterbacks
1. Peyton Manning -1.5 touchdown passes vs. Aaron Rodgers (-115) – In 11 NFL seasons, Manning has never missed a game, nor has he never thrown for less than 26 touchdown passes, which is just ridiculous. He’s had at least 27 in each of the last seven seasons. There’s no reason why Manning won’t throw for at least 28 again. I project him to have one of his best statistical seasons this year, throwing for closer to 35 touchdown passes, but 28 should win this bet just fine. Rodgers threw for 28 touchdowns last season in a 6-10 effort. A good number of those touchdown passes came as a result of the Packers trailing in the second half. The Packers should be better than their 6-10 record from last year and have already committed to running the football more this year. Even still, it isn’t easy to throw for 28 touchdowns two seasons in a row. Only four players threw for 28 TDs last year. We all know that Manning will be in the 28-35 range. Who knows for sure about Rodgers, but he should be in the 23-28 range. Also, Rodgers is a bigger injury risk. Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers? I mean, come on. Manning. Easy.

2. Donovan McNabb -300.5 passing yards vs. Ben Roethlisberger (-115) – In Roethlisberger’s five seasons as a starter, the most passing yards he threw in a season was 3,513. Last year, in a full 16 games, he threw for only 3,301 yards. The Steelers are a running team first and foremost and considering they should have the lead late in games for most of the season, Roethlisberger’s numbers should project to be about the same (3,500 yards tops). McNabb, meanwhile, had his best season last year in terms of passing yards with 3,916. McNabb seems to be getting better with age and I think he is in for his finest season yet. He has a plethora of receiving options and the Eagles love to spread the ball around. His big advantage compared to Roethlisberger is the short passes to his running backs (namely, Brian Westbrook). While both players have struggled to stay healthy for a full season recently, they both played 16 games last season and McNabb out-threw him by 600 yards. Over the last 4 seasons, McNabb has averaged 253 yards per game while Roethlisberger has averaged 213, a difference of 640 yards over a 16-game season. And no, I don’t think the signing of Michael Vick will have an impact on McNabb’s passing statistics. McNabb is a great bet here.

3. Drew Brees +4.5 touchdown passes vs. Tom Brady (-115) – In his three seasons on the Saints, beginning with his first, Brees has thrown 26, 28 and 34 touchdown passes, while throwing the most passes for the most yards in the entire league. With the Saints offense returning intact, Brees is a safe bet to throw for another 28+ touchdowns. Brady, meanwhile, in order to win this bet will have to throw for a very minimum of 33 touchdown passes. He’s only thrown for more than 28 once in his career (50 in 2007). Plus, who knows how he’ll respond to his knee injury? Just because Brady threw for 50 in 2007 doesn’t mean he’ll throw for at least 35. Look at Peyton Manning for example. After Manning’s 49-TD season in 2004, his next four seasons were 28, 31, 31, and 27. If Brady throws for 28 touchdowns (much more likely than 40), you’re definitely going to win this bet. Even if Brady throws for 40, you still might win.

4. Tony Romo -0.5 passing yards vs. Philip Rivers (-115) – Rivers threw for a career-high 4,009 passing yards last season in what most people considered an absolutely brilliant season (105.5 QB rating). In the previous two seasons (each full 16 games), he threw for 3,152 and 3,388. I expect Rivers to fall somewhere in between this season, maybe at around 3,700 or 3,800, partially because he racked up a ton of yards last season in games when the Chargers were trailing (there were a lot of them, surprisingly). The Chargers should have more late leads this season, meaning more running and less passing. Additionally, the coaching staff has made it clear that LaDainian Tomlinson will be in line for a lot more carries this season (he had a career-low 292 last season). Romo, meanwhile, threw for 3,448 last season in only 13 games (projects to 4,244 over 16 games), and threw for 4,211 in a full season the year before. Despite the loss of Terrell Owens, the Cowboys still have pretty good receiving options, and they project to throw the ball more than the Chargers. Romo is the bet.

5. Matt Ryan -200.5 passing yards vs. Eli Manning (-115) – Ryan threw for 3,440 yards in his rookie season. That number will be higher in 2009 for a number of reasons, including Ryan’s natural development, the addition of Tony Gonzalez, and the projected increase in passing attempts (he was held back slightly last year as a rookie, and the Falcons will look to shift some of the workload from Michael Turner to Matt Ryan this season). I project Ryan to throw for at least 3,800 yards this season. Manning, meanwhile, has thrown for 3,238, 3,336, 3,244, and 3,762 in his four seasons as a full-time starter. This season, he will not have the luxury of throwing to his two best receivers over the past couple years, Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer. However, this will be slightly offset by a projected increase in passing attempts – part of the reason for Manning’s low passing yardage totals was that the Giants were such a good football team and just ran the ball the whole second half. I don’t think the Giants will be as good this year as they have been the past couple years, which naturally means more passing attempts for Manning. Even still, Ryan has much higher upside this season from a passing yardage perspective, and should, more often than not, exceed Eli’s totals by at least 200 yards.

6. Aaron Rodgers -500.5 passing yards vs. Brett Favre (-115) – Aaron Rodgers has looked awesome in the preseason and I question whether or not Favre can hold up for the entire season. Rodgers should go for at least 3,800 yards (he threw for 4,000 last year). Even if Favre plays in all 16 games, I don’t think he’ll reach 3,300 yards mainly because the Vikings are a run-first, ball-control team. There will be plenty of games where Favre throws for under 200 yards.

7. Mark Sanchez +7.5 touchdown passes vs. Brett Favre (-115) – Even if he plays in all 16 games, I expect Favre to struggle to get to 20 touchdowns this year. If Favre does reach 20, that means Sanchez only needs to get 13 to win this bet.

Running Backs
8. LaDainian Tomlinson +45.5 rushing yards vs. Maurice Jones-Drew (-115) – Tomlinson had a career-low 290 carries last year but the team promises he is in line for a huge season, and LT seems motivated to prove his doubters wrong. Jones-Drew, meanwhile, has never carried the ball more than 200 times in a season, but his carries will obviously go up this year in a more featured role now that Fred Taylor is out of town. But the question is how much? I still have my doubts as to how many carries Jones-Drew will actually receive, but I don’t think he will top 300 carries. He should see plenty of work in the receiving game, but this bet is strictly rushing yards. Also, don’t forget that the Chargers play 6 games against the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos, which will enable Tomlinson to rack up the yards. Bottom line, more carries usually equals more yards. Take Tomlinson.

9. Michael Turner -2.5 rushing touchdowns vs. Chris Johnson (-105) – Turner had 17 rushing touchdowns last year compared to Johnson’s 9. Turner will continue to receive all the goal-line carries, while most of Tennessee’s will go to LenDale White. Plus, Atlanta has a better overall offense, meaning Turner will have more chances. As a bonus, you only have to lay -105. This one is easy.

10. Maurice Jones-Drew -3.5 rushing touchdowns vs. Willie Parker (-105) – This one seemed like a no-brainer to me at first glance, but my confidence has waned. Don’t get me wrong, I still think Jones-Drew is a great bet here, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. In MJD’s 3 seasons, he ran for 13, 9, and 12 touchdowns, while Parker, in 4 seasons as a starter, has rushed for more than 5 TDs only once. MJD will see an increase in carries this season while Parker should probably see a decrease. MJD should continue to receive goal-line carries while Pittsburgh’s should mostly go to Rashard Mendenhall. Parker should still be good for 5 touchdowns, meaning MJD really needs to get at least 9, which he should, but it’s no sure thing.

11. Ryan Grant -42.5 yards vs. Marion Barber (-115) – Like many of the rushing yards props, this one boils down to carries. Grant received 312 last year and projects to be the featured back again this year, facing little competition from backups Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn. Furthermore, the coaching staff has promised a greater focus on running the football this year, which is likely considering the Packers were 6-10 last season. Barber, meanwhile, struggled in a featured role last year (3.7 yards per carry, 238 carries), and will most likely divert back to a part-time back in 2009 by splitting carries with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. Health permitting, Grant should easily win this one.

12. Matt Forte +1.5 rushing touchdowns vs. Steve Slaton (-130) – I would have expected Forte to be the favorite in this bet, but I still think it’s pretty much a toss-up, and not the best value at -130. They should both see a similar number of carries, but Slaton is expected to lose goal-line carries to backup Chris Brown. Slaton would have to score at least 2 more touchdowns than Forte for you to lose this bet. Take Forte.

Wide Receivers
13. Chad Ochocinco -25.5 receiving yards vs. T.J. Houshmandzadeh (-115) – Prior to last year’s injury-plagued season (both for Chad and Carson Palmer), Chad’s five previous seasons looked like this in terms of receiving yards: 1440, 1369, 1432, 1274, and 1355. Now, both Ochocinco and Palmer are healthy and Houshmandzadeh is out of town, and despite the addition of Laveraneus Coles, Ochocinco will be the number one guy this year. Houshmandzadeh, meanwhile, at 32 years of age, moves to Seattle, to be Matt Hasselbeck’s #1 target. Despite a few great seasons from Housh, he has never posted a 1200-yard season. It’s never easy learning a new system, plus he has a history of injury problems and has a career average of 11.4 yards per catch which projects to continue in Seattle. I would expect Chad and Housh to post similar reception totals, but Housh’s yards-per-catch won’t come close to Chad’s.

14. Reggie Wayne +5.5 touchdowns vs. Randy Moss (-125) – Wayne only had 6 touchdowns last year but had 9 and 10 in the two years prior. As the clear-cut number one receiver in Peyton Manning’s offense, you have to figure the touchdowns will come. I would expect him to score 10 touchdowns this season, meaning Moss would need to score 16 in order for you to lose this bet. Even if Wayne only scores 8, Moss would still need to score 14, which is not easy to do. Sure, Moss can do it, but if I had to make an educated guess, I would take the under for Moss. Go with Wayne here.

15. Calvin Johnson +2.5 receiving touchdowns vs. Larry Fitzgerald (even) – Calvin scored 12 touchdowns last year. He’s entering his third season and is already clearly one of the top receivers in the league. He proved last year he can catch everything and he will continue to receive all the red-zone looks, and although defenses know this, he proved to be unstoppable. Obviously, Fitzgerald is great, and probably the best receiver in football, but in his best season last year, he still only had 12 touchdowns, which was a career-high. You have to think that Calvin will score at least 10 touchdowns again this year, and most likely will score 12 again. Would you feel comfortable hoping that Fitzgerald scores 15 touchdowns in order for you to win this bet? I won’t. Take Calvin and take the 2.5.

16. Greg Jennings +50.5 receiving yards vs. Wes Welker (-115) – Welker caught 111 and 112 balls in each of the last two years, but has only averaged 10.5 yards per catch (1,176 yards). Jennings, meanwhile, caught 80 balls last year for 1,292 yards. While Welker will continue to catch his fare share of passes, I would feel more comfortable betting that Jennings will increase his catches as opposed to Welker increasing his catches or his yards per catch. I’ll take the 50 yards and go with Jennings. Finally, Welker is a little banged up and is now questionable for Week 1.

17. Anquan Boldin +275.5 yards vs. Larry Fitzgerald (-115) – Fitzgerald and Boldin are a lot closer than people may think, mainly because of Fitzgerald’s outstanding postseason last year. Last year, Fitzgerald had 1,431 in 16 games while Boldin had 1,038 in 12 games (1,384 over 16 games). Extrapolating Boldin’s statistics would also most likely decrease Fitzgerald’s total yardage. Over the last 3 seasons, Fitzgerald has averaged 86 yards per game (1,377 per 16 games) while Boldin has averaged 77 yards per game (1,238 per 16 games), a difference of 139 yards. 275 is just too high for me.

18. Randy Moss -3.5 receiving touchdowns vs. Wes Welker (-115) – This one doesn’t make any sense to me. Welker had 3 touchdowns last year (Moss had 11). In 2007, Welker had 8 touchdowns (Moss had 23). Moss has been lighting it up in the preseason while Welker is injured and questionable for Week 1. Go big on this one.

19. Braylon Edwards +2.5 receiving touchdowns vs. Hines Ward (-115) – The Steelers are a run-first team and have plenty of receiving targets when they do throw (Ward, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller, Limas Sweed, Shaun McDonald). Ward is 33 years old and has scored 7, 7 and 6 touchdowns the last 3 seasons. Edwards, meanwhile, is the Browns’ only real threat at receiver, and is just one season removed from scoring 16 touchdowns. Let’s be conservative and say that Braylon scores 6 touchdowns. Do you really think Ward can get to 9?

20. Randy Moss -125.5 receiving yards vs. Terrell Owens (-115) – Moss is in a much better situation in New England with Tom Brady than T.O. is in Buffalo with Trent Edwards. Moss (32 years old) has looked great this preseason while T.O. (turns 36 in December) has been out for a few weeks with a toe injury.