2009 NFL Over/Under Wins Predictions, Trends, and Analysis

It is extremely important to consider a team’s schedule, both in the current year and the prior year, when attempting to predict how many wins a team will have. The current scheduling format started in 2002 when the Houston Texans became the 32^nd member of the National Football League. Under the current format, a team’s 16 regular season games are comprised of the following:

(A) 6 games against division opponents (every year)
(B) 4 games against all teams from another division within the conference (rotates every year)
(C) 4 games against all teams from another division from the other conference (rotates every year)
(D) 2 games against the teams within the conference in the other two divisions not represented in (A) and (B) that finished in the same position within their division.

For example, let’s take the 2009 New York Jets. Their 16 games are as follows:

(A) 6 games against the AFC East (2 each against New England, Buffalo and Miami)
(B) 4 games against the AFC South (1 each against Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee)
(C) 4 games against the NFC South (1 each against Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans and Tampa Bay)
(D) Because the Jets finished in 3^rd place in the AFC East, they will play the 3^rd place team from the AFC North (Cincinnati) and the 3^rd place team from the AFC West (Oakland). 

The interdivisional matchups in 2009 are as follows:
-AFC East: AFC South and NFC South
-AFC North: AFC West and NFC North
-AFC South: AFC East and NFC West
-AFC West: AFC North and NFC East
 
-NFC East: NFC South and AFC West
-NFC North: NFC West and AFC North
-NFC South: NFC East and AFC East
-NFC West: NFC North and AFC South

Another item that should be considered is trends. There are surprises every year, both good and bad. In my analysis, I thought it would be appropriate to only use win totals dating back to 2002, the start of the current scheduling format. Consider the following:

Teams that won 10+ games last year (Ten, Ind, Car, Pit, NYG, NE, Mia, Bal, Atl, Min)

1. Every year, there are at least 2 teams who win 10+ games and win 5 or less the next year.
2. Every year, there is at least 1 team who wins 10+ games and then wins 4 or less the next year. Are the Dolphins primed for a fall back to the cellar after a surprising 2008 season? Which team is due for some bad injury luck, similar to what happened to Seattle and Jacksonville last season?

Teams that won 12+ games last year (Ten, Ind, Car, Pit, NYG)

1. Every year, there is at least 1 team who wins 12+ games and then wins 8 or less the next year. The most likely candidates are Tennessee and Carolina.

Teams that won 5 or less games last year (Det, Stl, KC, Cin, Sea, Cle, Jac, Oak)

1. Every year, there is at least 1 team who wins 5 or less games and then wins 10 games the next year. Will it be a healthy Seattle team? A healthy Cincinnati team? A healthy Jacksonville team? Or will it be a young, up-and-coming Kansas City team?

Teams that increased their win total in each of the past 2 seasons (Ten, Min, NYG, Pit, Oak, Ari)

1. Tennessee (2005-present) is the only team to increase its win total for 3 consecutive seasons. There have been 8 other teams to increase their win total for 2 consecutive seasons, but each failed to do it for a third. Tennessee will not win 14 games, the Giants will not win 13 games, Pittsburgh will not win 13 games, and Minnesota will not win 11 games. The trends also say that Arizona will not win 10 games and Oakland will not win 6 games.

Teams that decreased their win total in each of the past 2 seasons (SD, Cin, KC, Stl)

1. Only Cincinnati (2005-present), Kansas City (2005-present) and Atlanta (2004-2007) have decreased their win total for 3 consecutive seasons. There have been 13 other teams to decrease their win total for 2 consecutive seasons, but each failed to do it for a third. This trend will most likely hold in 2009 as San Diego will win at least 8 games, Cincinnati at least 4, Kansas City at least 2, and St. Louis at least 2.

Teams that increased their win total by 3 or more games from last season (Mia – 10, Atl – 7, Bal – 6, Car – 5, NYJ – 5, Ten – 3)

1. Of the 46 teams that have won 3 or more games from their prior year total, only 6 of them (13%) increased their win total again the following year.
2. Of the 19 teams that won 5 or more games from their prior year total, only 1 went on to increase their win total in the following year (Chicago went from 5 to 11 to 13 from 2004-2006).
3. Of those same 19 teams, 15 of them actually saw their win total go down by at least 3 games in the following year.
4. Of the 10 that won 6 or more games from their prior year total, 8 of them saw their win total go down by at least 3 games the following year. 5 of the 10 saw their win total go down by at least 4 games.

Miami will most likely see its win total decrease by at least 3 games (from 10 to 7). Atlanta, Carolina, Baltimore, Tennessee and the Jets will also most likely return to the 8-win range.

Teams that decreased their win total by 3 or more games from last season (Det – 7, GB – 7, Sea – 6, Jac – 6, Cle – 6, NE – 5, Dal – 4, SD – 3, Cin – 3)

1. Of the 47 teams that decreased their win total by at least 3 games from the prior season, 33 (70%) bounced back and increased their win total the following season.
2. Of the 12 teams that decreased their win total by at least 6 games from the prior season, 7 (58%) increased their win total by at least 4 games the following season.

This would imply that Green Bay is more likely than not to approach 10 wins, Jacksonville to win at least 9, Seattle to win at least 8, Cleveland to win at least 8, and Detroit to win at least 4. It also implies that New England has a 70% chance to win at least 12, Dallas (70%) to win at least 10, San Diego at least 9 (70%), and Cincinnati at least 5 (70%). 

Other statistics to keep in mind

1. On average, there are 5 teams each year to win at least 12 games
2. On average, there are 7 teams each year to win at least 11 games
3. On average, there are 10 teams each year to win at least 10 games
4. On average, there are 5 teams each year to win 4 or less games
5. On average, there are 8 teams each year to win 5 or less games
6. On average, there are 10 teams each year to win 6 or less games
7. On average, there are 11 teams each year to win between 7 and 9 games

The thing to keep in mind here is that if you think a team is a safe bet to be one of the top 10 teams in the league, they will most likely win at least 10 games (see San Diego, below). Likewise, if you think a team is a safe bet to be in the bottom third, they will most likely win at most 6 games (see Miami, below).

Consider the following table, which summarizes the number of occurrences of a win total and the average win total the following year. This just supports the fact that there are surprises every year – for example, teams that won 6 games have a better historical performance in the subsequent season than teams that won 13 games.

Number of wins	Occurrences	Average wins the next year
16	1	11.0
15	1	11.0
14	4	11.8
13	9	7.8
12	12	10.6
11	12	7.8
10	24	7.8
9	22	8.5
8	22	8.3
7	21	7.0
6	17	8.2
5	19	7.2
4	19	7.2
3	4	6.0
2	4	5.5
1	1	11.0

Scheduling and trends are only a couple pieces to the puzzle. You still have to predict which teams will exceed expectations and which teams will fall short. Here are my best educated guesses as of the end of May 2009:

Teams that will most likely bounce back from a disappointing regular season in 2008 to exceed expectations in 2009:

• San Diego (Over 9.5, -140) – They were a disappointing 8-8 last year but knocked off the Colts in Indianapolis in the first round of the playoffs. Prior to last year, they won 11 games in 2007 and 14 games in 2006. The Chargers have a number of factors working in their favor. First, all 8 of their regular season losses last year were by under 10 points, including 4 games by 3 or less. Of course, that includes the controversial Week 2 loss at Denver. We all know San Diego is a very good team, so their luck should even out a little bit in 2009. I personally believe it is safe to call them a top 5 team in the NFL (keep in mind that on average, a top-5 team would win at least 12 games). Also, the defense struggled mightily last season without Shawne Merriman, who is expected back this season. Furthermore, San Diego has arguably the easiest in-division schedule, with 6 games against sub-par teams (2 each against Kansas City, Denver and Oakland). They also have games against Cleveland, Cincinnati and Miami, plus home games against Baltimore and Washington. They also play at Tennessee, at Pittsburgh, and the rest of the NFC East. They should get back to 12-4 this year.

• Cincinnati (Over 6, -160) – The Bengals are a completely different team with a healthy Carson Palmer. If he comes back healthy in 2009, Cincinnati is a prime candidate to go from ‘5 or under’ to ‘10 or more’. Pittsburgh is the class of the AFC North but Cleveland is weak and Baltimore may not be as good as they were last year (they won 5 games the year before last). Cincinnati plays the weak AFC West, plus winnable games vs. Detroit, Chicago and Houston, and at Green Bay, Minnesota, and the Jets. They could be this year’s biggest surprise and finish 10-6, but worst case scenario, they will likely win at least 6 games.

 
Teams that will most likely experience a significant fall after a surprising 2008 season

• Tennessee (Under 9, +120) – They were clearly one of the best teams for all of last season, racking up 13 wins. However, Kerry Collins is still their starting quarterback, they lost their defensive ace Albert Haynesworth, and their division is extremely tough. They seem primed for a fall, but the question is how much? Kerry Collins is not very good, and once he starts to struggle, there will be cries for Vince Young. They have 6 very tough division games, they’re at New England, at Pittsburgh, at Seattle, and vs. San Diego. In those 10 aforementioned games, I would say they go 5-5 at best, but more likely they will win only 4 or less. Their remaining 6 games are not as bad – Arizona, San Fran, St. Louis, NY Jets, Miami, and Buffalo. Look at their first 6 games though: At Pittsburgh, vs. Houston, at NY Jets, at Jacksonville, vs. Indianapolis, at New England. They could realistically be 1-5. I think if they finish 8-8, it will be a very good year.

• Miami (Under 7, -105) – Despite winning the division last year, they are projected to finish last in their division. Part of the reason for this projection is that 9 of their 11 wins last season were by less than 10 points, including a 2-point home win at home to Oakland, a 2-point win at home to a banged-up Seattle team, a 4-point win at St. Louis, a 5-point win at home against San Francisco, and a 7-point win at Kansas City. Last year’s schedule was a joke and they just barely got by in a number of easy games. What about their 2009 schedule? Miami plays 6 division games, 4 games each against the AFC South and NFC South, and because they finished in first place last year they also have the privilege of hosting Pittsburgh and visiting San Diego. The schedule is too tough and they’re not good enough to fight for another playoff spot this year. Don’t forget they went 1-15 two years ago. Chad Pennington has never had 2 good seasons in a row; he will be replaced by Chad Henne by December and the Dolphins will not win 8 games.

Stay tuned for a more detailed team-by-team analysis. For now, these are my four favorites.

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