2009 NFL Over/Under Wins Predictions, Trends, and Analysis

It is extremely important to consider a team’s schedule, both in the current year and the prior year, when attempting to predict how many wins a team will have. The current scheduling format started in 2002 when the Houston Texans became the 32^nd member of the National Football League. Under the current format, a team’s 16 regular season games are comprised of the following:

(A) 6 games against division opponents (every year)
(B) 4 games against all teams from another division within the conference (rotates every year)
(C) 4 games against all teams from another division from the other conference (rotates every year)
(D) 2 games against the teams within the conference in the other two divisions not represented in (A) and (B) that finished in the same position within their division.

For example, let’s take the 2009 New York Jets. Their 16 games are as follows:

(A) 6 games against the AFC East (2 each against New England, Buffalo and Miami)
(B) 4 games against the AFC South (1 each against Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee)
(C) 4 games against the NFC South (1 each against Atlanta, Carolina, New Orleans and Tampa Bay)
(D) Because the Jets finished in 3^rd place in the AFC East, they will play the 3^rd place team from the AFC North (Cincinnati) and the 3^rd place team from the AFC West (Oakland). 

The interdivisional matchups in 2009 are as follows:
-AFC East: AFC South and NFC South
-AFC North: AFC West and NFC North
-AFC South: AFC East and NFC West
-AFC West: AFC North and NFC East
 
-NFC East: NFC South and AFC West
-NFC North: NFC West and AFC North
-NFC South: NFC East and AFC East
-NFC West: NFC North and AFC South

Another item that should be considered is trends. There are surprises every year, both good and bad. In my analysis, I thought it would be appropriate to only use win totals dating back to 2002, the start of the current scheduling format. Consider the following:

Teams that won 10+ games last year (Ten, Ind, Car, Pit, NYG, NE, Mia, Bal, Atl, Min)

1. Every year, there are at least 2 teams who win 10+ games and win 5 or less the next year.
2. Every year, there is at least 1 team who wins 10+ games and then wins 4 or less the next year. Are the Dolphins primed for a fall back to the cellar after a surprising 2008 season? Which team is due for some bad injury luck, similar to what happened to Seattle and Jacksonville last season?

Teams that won 12+ games last year (Ten, Ind, Car, Pit, NYG)

1. Every year, there is at least 1 team who wins 12+ games and then wins 8 or less the next year. The most likely candidates are Tennessee and Carolina.

Teams that won 5 or less games last year (Det, Stl, KC, Cin, Sea, Cle, Jac, Oak)

1. Every year, there is at least 1 team who wins 5 or less games and then wins 10 games the next year. Will it be a healthy Seattle team? A healthy Cincinnati team? A healthy Jacksonville team? Or will it be a young, up-and-coming Kansas City team?

Teams that increased their win total in each of the past 2 seasons (Ten, Min, NYG, Pit, Oak, Ari)

1. Tennessee (2005-present) is the only team to increase its win total for 3 consecutive seasons. There have been 8 other teams to increase their win total for 2 consecutive seasons, but each failed to do it for a third. Tennessee will not win 14 games, the Giants will not win 13 games, Pittsburgh will not win 13 games, and Minnesota will not win 11 games. The trends also say that Arizona will not win 10 games and Oakland will not win 6 games.

Teams that decreased their win total in each of the past 2 seasons (SD, Cin, KC, Stl)

1. Only Cincinnati (2005-present), Kansas City (2005-present) and Atlanta (2004-2007) have decreased their win total for 3 consecutive seasons. There have been 13 other teams to decrease their win total for 2 consecutive seasons, but each failed to do it for a third. This trend will most likely hold in 2009 as San Diego will win at least 8 games, Cincinnati at least 4, Kansas City at least 2, and St. Louis at least 2.

Teams that increased their win total by 3 or more games from last season (Mia – 10, Atl – 7, Bal – 6, Car – 5, NYJ – 5, Ten – 3)

1. Of the 46 teams that have won 3 or more games from their prior year total, only 6 of them (13%) increased their win total again the following year.
2. Of the 19 teams that won 5 or more games from their prior year total, only 1 went on to increase their win total in the following year (Chicago went from 5 to 11 to 13 from 2004-2006).
3. Of those same 19 teams, 15 of them actually saw their win total go down by at least 3 games in the following year.
4. Of the 10 that won 6 or more games from their prior year total, 8 of them saw their win total go down by at least 3 games the following year. 5 of the 10 saw their win total go down by at least 4 games.

Miami will most likely see its win total decrease by at least 3 games (from 10 to 7). Atlanta, Carolina, Baltimore, Tennessee and the Jets will also most likely return to the 8-win range.

Teams that decreased their win total by 3 or more games from last season (Det – 7, GB – 7, Sea – 6, Jac – 6, Cle – 6, NE – 5, Dal – 4, SD – 3, Cin – 3)

1. Of the 47 teams that decreased their win total by at least 3 games from the prior season, 33 (70%) bounced back and increased their win total the following season.
2. Of the 12 teams that decreased their win total by at least 6 games from the prior season, 7 (58%) increased their win total by at least 4 games the following season.

This would imply that Green Bay is more likely than not to approach 10 wins, Jacksonville to win at least 9, Seattle to win at least 8, Cleveland to win at least 8, and Detroit to win at least 4. It also implies that New England has a 70% chance to win at least 12, Dallas (70%) to win at least 10, San Diego at least 9 (70%), and Cincinnati at least 5 (70%). 

Other statistics to keep in mind

1. On average, there are 5 teams each year to win at least 12 games
2. On average, there are 7 teams each year to win at least 11 games
3. On average, there are 10 teams each year to win at least 10 games
4. On average, there are 5 teams each year to win 4 or less games
5. On average, there are 8 teams each year to win 5 or less games
6. On average, there are 10 teams each year to win 6 or less games
7. On average, there are 11 teams each year to win between 7 and 9 games

The thing to keep in mind here is that if you think a team is a safe bet to be one of the top 10 teams in the league, they will most likely win at least 10 games (see San Diego, below). Likewise, if you think a team is a safe bet to be in the bottom third, they will most likely win at most 6 games (see Miami, below).

Consider the following table, which summarizes the number of occurrences of a win total and the average win total the following year. This just supports the fact that there are surprises every year – for example, teams that won 6 games have a better historical performance in the subsequent season than teams that won 13 games.

Number of wins	Occurrences	Average wins the next year
16	1	11.0
15	1	11.0
14	4	11.8
13	9	7.8
12	12	10.6
11	12	7.8
10	24	7.8
9	22	8.5
8	22	8.3
7	21	7.0
6	17	8.2
5	19	7.2
4	19	7.2
3	4	6.0
2	4	5.5
1	1	11.0

Scheduling and trends are only a couple pieces to the puzzle. You still have to predict which teams will exceed expectations and which teams will fall short. Here are my best educated guesses as of the end of May 2009:

Teams that will most likely bounce back from a disappointing regular season in 2008 to exceed expectations in 2009:

• San Diego (Over 9.5, -140) – They were a disappointing 8-8 last year but knocked off the Colts in Indianapolis in the first round of the playoffs. Prior to last year, they won 11 games in 2007 and 14 games in 2006. The Chargers have a number of factors working in their favor. First, all 8 of their regular season losses last year were by under 10 points, including 4 games by 3 or less. Of course, that includes the controversial Week 2 loss at Denver. We all know San Diego is a very good team, so their luck should even out a little bit in 2009. I personally believe it is safe to call them a top 5 team in the NFL (keep in mind that on average, a top-5 team would win at least 12 games). Also, the defense struggled mightily last season without Shawne Merriman, who is expected back this season. Furthermore, San Diego has arguably the easiest in-division schedule, with 6 games against sub-par teams (2 each against Kansas City, Denver and Oakland). They also have games against Cleveland, Cincinnati and Miami, plus home games against Baltimore and Washington. They also play at Tennessee, at Pittsburgh, and the rest of the NFC East. They should get back to 12-4 this year.

• Cincinnati (Over 6, -160) – The Bengals are a completely different team with a healthy Carson Palmer. If he comes back healthy in 2009, Cincinnati is a prime candidate to go from ‘5 or under’ to ‘10 or more’. Pittsburgh is the class of the AFC North but Cleveland is weak and Baltimore may not be as good as they were last year (they won 5 games the year before last). Cincinnati plays the weak AFC West, plus winnable games vs. Detroit, Chicago and Houston, and at Green Bay, Minnesota, and the Jets. They could be this year’s biggest surprise and finish 10-6, but worst case scenario, they will likely win at least 6 games.

 
Teams that will most likely experience a significant fall after a surprising 2008 season

• Tennessee (Under 9, +120) – They were clearly one of the best teams for all of last season, racking up 13 wins. However, Kerry Collins is still their starting quarterback, they lost their defensive ace Albert Haynesworth, and their division is extremely tough. They seem primed for a fall, but the question is how much? Kerry Collins is not very good, and once he starts to struggle, there will be cries for Vince Young. They have 6 very tough division games, they’re at New England, at Pittsburgh, at Seattle, and vs. San Diego. In those 10 aforementioned games, I would say they go 5-5 at best, but more likely they will win only 4 or less. Their remaining 6 games are not as bad – Arizona, San Fran, St. Louis, NY Jets, Miami, and Buffalo. Look at their first 6 games though: At Pittsburgh, vs. Houston, at NY Jets, at Jacksonville, vs. Indianapolis, at New England. They could realistically be 1-5. I think if they finish 8-8, it will be a very good year.

• Miami (Under 7, -105) – Despite winning the division last year, they are projected to finish last in their division. Part of the reason for this projection is that 9 of their 11 wins last season were by less than 10 points, including a 2-point home win at home to Oakland, a 2-point win at home to a banged-up Seattle team, a 4-point win at St. Louis, a 5-point win at home against San Francisco, and a 7-point win at Kansas City. Last year’s schedule was a joke and they just barely got by in a number of easy games. What about their 2009 schedule? Miami plays 6 division games, 4 games each against the AFC South and NFC South, and because they finished in first place last year they also have the privilege of hosting Pittsburgh and visiting San Diego. The schedule is too tough and they’re not good enough to fight for another playoff spot this year. Don’t forget they went 1-15 two years ago. Chad Pennington has never had 2 good seasons in a row; he will be replaced by Chad Henne by December and the Dolphins will not win 8 games.

Stay tuned for a more detailed team-by-team analysis. For now, these are my four favorites.

Can the Rockets beat the Lakers in this 2nd round series?

 
It sure looks like they have a decent chance after last night’s 100-92 upset win in Game 1 in Los Angeles. The Rockets are tough as nails defensively. They are so physical that they can bully around guys like Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol, both of whom you may recall got pushed around quite a bit by the Boston Celtics in the 2008 NBA Finals. Shane Battier and Ron Artest will make Kobe Bryant work incredibly hard for his points. Guys like Von Wafer and Kyle Lowry are incredibly fast and provide a key spark off the bench. Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes are two more guys, along with Luis Scola, Battier and Artest, who just love to do the little things and push people around. And then there’s Yao Ming, who I heard is pretty good. Too bad Tracy McGrady isn’t healthy (sarcasm) otherwise the rest of the team can stand around and watch him go 1-on-3.

But how have teams responded in the second round after losing Game 1 at home? Out of the 68 second round series of the past 17 years, there have only been 12 times (prior to this season) that the road team won Game 1. Of those 12 instances, only twice has the home team ALSO lost Game 2, the 1999 Hawks who got swept by the Knicks and the 1994 Rockets who came back to beat the Suns in 7 games. Additionally, of those 12 instances, the home team that lost Game 1 ended up winning the series 7 out of 12 times, and in 6 of those 7 comeback series wins, the series went the full 7 games. 3 of these teams that lost Game 1 ended up winning the Championship (2006 Miami Heat, 1994 Houston Rockets, 1992 Chicago Bulls)

Here are the 12 examples:
2007: Spurs win Game 1 at Phoenix, Phoenix wins Game 2, but the Spurs win the series in 6
2006: Heat lose Game 1 at home vs. the Nets, Heat win the next 4 games
2004: Timberwolves lose Game 1 at home vs. Sacramento, win Game 2 and go on to win in 7
2003: Dallas loses Game 1 at home to the Kings, wins Game 2 and goes on to win in 7
2001: 76ers lose Game 1 at home to Toronto, win Game 2 and go on to win in 7
1999: Hawks lose Game 1 at home to the Knicks and end up getting swept
1997: Heat lose Game 1 at home to the Knicks, win Game 2, and go on to win in 7 after the entire Knicks team gets suspended for the last 2 games
1996: Spurs lose Game 1 at home to the Jazz, win Game 2, but lose the series in 6
1995: Knicks lose Game 1 at home to Indiana, win Game 2, but lose the series in 7
1994: Hawks lose Game 1 at home to Indiana, win Game 2, but lose the series in 6
1994: Rockets lose Game 1 at home to Phoenix, also lose Game 2, but come back to win the series in 7
1992: Bulls lose Game 1 at home to the Knicks, win Game 2 and go on to win the series in 7

2009 NBA Playoffs – 2nd Round Preview – Boston will beat Orlando

In the past 17 years, there have been 68 second-round series.

-The home team has won the series 81% of the time (55 out of 68).

-Only once (1999) have two road teams won the series (Knicks over Hawks, Blazers over Jazz)

-In 6 of the 17 years, all four home teams advanced to the Conference Finals. The last time it happened was 2005.

-Of the 13 home teams that lost in the second round, none of them were favored by more than 7 points in Game 1. Only 2 of them were favored by more than 5 (none since 1996).

-Since 1994, when the home team is favored by 4 or less in Game 1, they are only 7-9 in the series.

-Since 2003, when the first round was expanded to 7 games, there have been 5 teams to win a first round series in 7 games and then have home court advantage in the second round. All 5 teams won their second round series, including the Celtics in 2008, Jazz in 2007, Suns in 2006, Mavericks in 2003 and Pistons in 2003.

 

The most up-for-debate series is the Celtics/Magic series, and I seem to be the only person that likes the Celtics. I took the Celtics (-135) yesterday thinking I was getting good value, but the line has since gone down to Celtics (-115). The Magic are also -115, making this series essentially a pick’em, which I think is ridiculous. Dwight Howard, in my opinion, is the most important player in this series. In order for Orlando to win, Howard needs to absolutely dominate. Despite the impressive stats, he still hasn’t shown me that he’s capable of dominating. Is this the series where he takes that next step? Or will we continue to see Rafer Alston, Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu pass the ball around the perimeter, run the occasional pick and roll with Dwight, and hope that Dwight can grab the offensive rebound? If it’s the latter, the Celtics win. Easily. Boston is the better team, they’re tougher, they have more heart, and they are proven and experienced winners. I trust Rajon Rondo to destroy Rafer Alston. I trust Paul Pierce to get to the rim and draw fouls. I don’t trust Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu – they don’t strike me as particularly reliable and they can’t get to the rim (no one on Orlando can get to the rim except for Courtney Lee, who may miss the entire series). I don’t trust Dwight Howard to avoid foul trouble and I don’t trust him to dominate. If you want to put your money on Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, be my guest. I’m going with Paul Pierce and the defending champs. And I will feel more confident than you.

 

The bets:

-Celtics (-115)

 

The picks:

-Cavs in 5

-Celtics in 6

-Lakers in 5

-Nuggets in 7

2009 NFL Division Winners Predictions

 

It’s only the first weekend of May and we still have over 4 months until the first weekend of the 2009 NFL season, but does that mean it’s too early to start thinking about who will win each division? Well, the odds are available on sportsbook.com so I think it’s about the right time. Check out my predictions from 2008, which I think I did a pretty good job on.

 

The most amazing trend is that every single year since the inception of the current division and scheduling format in 2002, there has been at least one team to go from ‘worst to first’, and in four of those years, two teams did the trick. In 2008, it was the Dolphins winning the AFC East after finishing the 2007 season with only 1 win. The Ravens, Eagles, Bears and Falcons all finished in last place in 2007 and they each made a great run at a division title in 2008.

 

Which team will pull it off in 2009? The most likely candidates appear to be the Saints, Jaguars and Redskins. But who knows? No one would have said Miami in 2008. And the Dolphins were 40:1 to win the AFC East last year. Unbelievable.

 

Take a look at the order of finish in each division since 2002.

 

	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004	2003	2002
AFC East	Mia NE NYJ Buf	NE Buf NYJ Mia	NE NYJ Buf Mia	NE Mia Buf NYJ	NE NYJ Buf Mia	NE Mia Buf NYJ	NYJ NE Mia Buf
AFC North	Pit Bal Cin Cle	Pit Cle Cin Bal	Bal Cin Pit Cle	Cin Pit Bal Cle	Pit Bal Cin Cle	Bal Cin Pit Cle	Pit Cle Bal Cin
AFC South	Ten Ind Hou Jac	Ind Jac Ten Hou	Ind Ten Jac Hou	Ind Jac Ten Hou	Ind Jac Hou Ten	Ind Ten Jac Hou	Ten Ind Jac Hou
AFC West	SD Den Oak KC	SD Den KC Oak	SD KC Den Oak	Den KC SD Oak	SD Den KC Oak	KC Den Oak SD	Oak Den SD KC
NFC East	NYG Phi Dal Was	Dal NYG Was Phi	Phi Dal NYG Was	NYG Was Dal Phi	Phi NYG Dal Was	Phi Dal Was NYG	Phi NYG Was Dal
NFC North	Min Chi GB Det	GB Min Det Chi	Chi GB Min Det	Chi Min Det GB	GB Min Det Chi	GB Min Chi Det	GB Min Chi Det
NFC South	Car Atl TB NO	TB Car NO Atl	NO Car Atl TB	TB Car Atl NO	Atl NO Car TB	Car NO TB Atl	TB Atl NO Car
NFC West	Ari SF Sea Stl	Sea Ari SF Stl	Sea Stl SF Ari	Sea Stl Ari SF	Sea Stl Ari SF	Stl Sea SF Ari	SF Stl Sea Ari

 

And now, here are the odds on sportsbook.com on May 2, 2009. I will occasionally respond to this post with updates to the odds right up until the start of the season.

 

The percentages represent the chances (based on the odds) that sportsbook.com gives each team to win the division. So, if you think your team has a better shot than the sportsbook.com percentage, then you should make the bet.

 

Who will win the AFC East in 2009?

Patriots, -400 (80%)

Jets, +700 (13%)

Bills, +700 (13%)

Dolphins, +700 (13%)

 

Analysis:  These odds look about right to me and I wouldn’t consider betting on anything here. You gotta think the Patriots will win the division but the price may be too high.

 

Who will win the AFC North in 2009?

Steelers, -160 (62%)

Ravens, +225 (31%)

Bengals, +700 (13%)

Browns, +700 (13%)

 

Analysis:  The Steelers are obviously the team to beat in this division. I trust that with Ben Roethlisberger and a great defense, the Steelers should win this division for a third straight year. The odds are not unreasonable so I may consider betting it.

 

Who will win the AFC South in 2009?

Colts, +140 (42%)

Jaguars, +250 (29%)

Titans, +300 (25%)

Texans, +350 (22%)

 

Analysis: It’s pretty interesting that Tennessee is projected to finish third in this division after having the best record in the entire league last season. Losing Albert Haynesworth obviously will hurt but Jeff Fisher is the master motivator so this may be a decent bet at 3:1. Still, how can you go against Peyton Manning and the Colts?

 

Who will win the AFC West in 2009?

Chargers, -200 (67%)

Broncos, +300 (25%)

Chiefs, +700 (13%)

Raiders, +700 (13%)

 

Analysis:  The Chargers are again by far the most talented team in this division and I think it’s great value at -200. No other team seems worth considering to me. I may take this sooner rather than later because I’m sure this will only go up, maybe up to around -400 by the time the season starts. Also, although the Chargers finished in 1^st place last year, they actually have an easier schedule than the Broncos who finished in 2^nd place last year. They both play the entire AFC North, but the Chargers play the Dolphins and Titans, both of which finished in 1^st place in their divisions, while the Broncos play the 2^nd place teams – the Patriots and the Colts.

 

Who will win the NFC East in 2009?

Giants, +150 (40%)

Eagles, +180 (36%)

Cowboys, +225 (31%)

Redskins, +800 (11%)

 

Analysis:  I’m surprised that the Redskins have the longest odds to win their division in the entire league not including the Detroit Lions. I would have picked the Eagles to be the favorite in this division, but none of the Giants, Eagles, or Cowboys seems worth it to me because this division should be wide open again. That is, I think the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys all have about a 25% – 30% chance while the Redskins should not be that far behind. As such, the Redskins would be the only team I would consider betting at these odds.

 

Who will win the NFC North in 2009?

Vikings, +150 (40%)

Bears, +180 (36%)

Packers, +180 (36%)

Lions, +1800 (5%)

 

Analysis:  The Dolphins did it at 40:1 last year so why can’t the Lions pull it off at 18:1? It’s not terrible odds but I’m not going to take it. I’m also not going to take any of the big 3 because I think it’s a toss-up right now who wins. In other words, I think they each have a 30-35% chance of winning the division so based on the current odds nothing is worth betting.

 

Who will win the NFC South in 2009?

Saints, +180 (36%)

Bucs, +180 (36%)

Panthers, +250 (29%)

Falcons, +500 (17%)

 

Analysis: This is so surprising to me that it almost seems like a mistake. If the odds were Falcons +180, Panthers +180, Saints +250 and Bucs +500, that would have made a whole lot more sense. The Falcons are incredible value here, after finishing last season at 11-5 in Matt Ryan’s rookie year. Same with the Panthers, who won 12 games last year. These odds will be sure to change, so if you like the Falcons or Panthers, don’t wait. Bet it now.

 

Who will win the NFC West in 2009?

Cardinals, +125 (44%)

Seahawks, +200 (33%)

49ers, +250 (29%)

Rams, +800 (11%)

 

Analysis:  I think the Cardinals are a prime candidate for a let-down this season so I wouldn’t consider them, especially at these odds. Seattle would seem to make the most sense here.

 

Conclusion:  If you are itching to make a bet now, I would recommend the Chargers (-200), Steelers (-160), or Falcons (+500). Or possibly the Redskins (+800). Everything else can wait, but I’m also going to keep an eye on the Patriots (-400), Colts (+140) and Seahawks (+200).