The following player props for the 2008 NFL season are available on sportsbook.com. There were 15 that caught my eye and I have analyzed each one. Upon further review, I would only recommend wagering on 10 of them. I stayed away from a lot of the running back props because of the unpredictability of injuries. I focused more on quarterbacks, receivers and tight ends.
Props that I would recommend wagering on (from most confident to least confident):
Marshawn Lynch -0.5 more rushing touchdowns than Ricky Williams (Lynch: -110) – This one I just don’t understand. Marshawn Lynch is the featured back for the Bills – a 22-year old second-year stud who projects for 300 carries and all the goal line work. Williams, meanwhile, is 31, has appeared in just 13 games since 2003, and will split carries with Ronnie Brown in a worse offense. Lynch will have more opportunities to score and he is the better player, so this one looks like a no-brainer.
Kellen Winslow -15.5 more receiving yards than Antonio Gates (Winslow: -115) – Winslow had 1,110 yards last year compared to only 984 for Gates. Gates, however, only had 345 yards in the last 9 regular season games and only 60 total yards in three playoff games. I think the presence of Chris Chambers plus the emergence of Vincent Jackson really takes away from the production of Antonio Gates. Winslow out-received Gates by over 100 yards last year and I expect the differential to be even greater this season.
Calvin Johnson +2.5 more receiving touchdowns than Anquan Boldin (Johnson: -115) – Boldin had a career-high 9 touchdown catches last year and I really don’t think he will eclipse that mark this year. If Boldin catches 9 again, that means that Calvin Johnson only needs 7 touchdown catches this year for you to win this bet. And that’s if Boldin catches 9 which is unlikely in itself. All signs point towards Calvin Johnson having a breakout year and I think he will grab 7 touchdowns at the very least but could get to as high as 12.
Drew Brees more passing yards than Carson Palmer by 200.5 (Brees: -115) – Brees threw for at least 4,400 yards in his first two years in New Orleans while Palmer had his best season last year with 4,100 yards. This year, Brees welcomes an elite tight end in Jeremy Shockey. In Cincinnati, Chad Johnson has a torn labrum, T.J. Houshmandzadeh has a bad hamstring and Carson Palmer has a broken nose. They will all be starting Week 1, but it just doesn’t look good in Cincinnati for me. I am much more optimistic about Brees. Lay the 200 yards.
Plaxico Burress +0.5 more receiving touchdowns than T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Burress: -120) – Houshmandzadeh had 12 touchdown catches last year but only 2 in the last 8 games. Burress also had 12 touchdowns and 10 the year before. Burress is a better red-zone target and he will be leaned on even more without Jeremy Shockey. Burress is a strong bet here, even at -120.
Philip Rivers -0.5 passing touchdowns vs. Jay Cutler (Rivers: -115) – I am predicting a big year for Philip Rivers. He really impressed me in the playoffs last year and showed me he has a great chance to become an elite quarterback in the league. With a great offense and great red-zone targets in Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson, Rivers is primed for a 25-touchdown season. Jay Cutler could be very good as well but his offense and his receiving options are just not as strong as Rivers’. Take Rivers with confidence.
Torry Holt +0.5 more receiving touchdowns than Hines Ward (Holt: -115) – This one is close to a toss-up but I like Holt because he is the primary option in the Rams passing game. Hines Ward, meanwhile, will be splitting the passing touchdowns with Heath Miller, Limas Sweed and Santonio Holmes. Holt is solid value as the underdog in this bet.
Drew Brees -6.5 passing touchdowns vs. Jon Kitna (Brees: -110) – In his first two years in New Orleans, Drew Brees has thrown for 26 and 28 touchdowns. This year, he gets another red zone option in Jeremy Shockey. Brees should be good for another 26-30 touchdown passes. Kitna, meanwhile, threw for 18 last year and 21 the year before (16 games each year). Sure, he has tremendous receiving options in Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams, but he will have to throw at least 21 touchdowns to have a chance to win this bet. Kitna turns 36 in September, was sacked more than any other quarterback the past two years, and has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in each of the past two years. There’s a pretty decent chance he doesn’t last the season as the starter (due to either poor performance or injury). With all the uncertainty surrounding Kitna, I am going to take Drew Brees and lay the 6.5 touchdown passes. Small wager though.
Calvin Johnson +55.5 more receiving yards than Roy Williams (Johnson: -115) – All signs point towards Calvin Johnson being the number one guy in Detroit this year. Furthermore, in four years, Roy Williams has only played all 16 games once. Small wager here.
Larry Fitzgerald -1.5 more receiving touchdowns than Roy Williams (Fitzgerald: -120) – Roy Williams has never had more than 8 touchdown catches while Fitzgerald has had 10 twice. Fitzgerald is the number one red zone target in Arizona while it’s debatable who that will be in Detroit (either Roy or Calvin Johnson). I am predicting at least 10 touchdowns for Fitzgerald again and at most 8 for Roy Williams. Small wager here.
5 Props that I considered but decided to pass on:
Ben Roethlisberger +50.5 passing yards vs. Donovan McNabb (Roethlisberger: -115) – At first glance, I loved Roethlisberger in this bet. Upon further research, I’m not going to touch it. If McNabb had played a full 16 games over the last three years, he was on pace to throw for 3,800, 4,200 and 4,400 yards in 2007, 2006 and 2005 respectively. Roethlisberger, meanwhile, projected for only 3,400 yards last year in the first year of the Mike Tomlin era. If I had to bet, I would still take Roethlisberger because he has the better receiving options, is a better bet to stay healthy, and is the better quarterback in my opinion.
Ben Roethlisberger -1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Carson Palmer (Roethlisberger: -115) – Again, I really liked Roethlisberger in this bet at first glance, but upon further review, Carson Palmer threw for 26, 28 and 32 touchdowns the past three years. Roethlisberger threw for 32 last year but never threw more than 18 prior to that. I still think Roethlisberger will throw for more than 25. Carson I’m not as sure about but history indicates he should get at least 25 as well, so I’m going to stay away.
Maurice Jones-Drew -0.5 more rushing yards than Fred Taylor (Jones-Drew: -115) – This bet caught my eye because in fantasy football, Jones-Drew is a top-20 pick while Fred Taylor is a border-line top-80 pick. However, Jones-Drew makes his mark in fantasy football with his touchdowns and his production as a receiver. Believe it or not, Jones-Drew only projected for 819 rushing yards last year and 941 yards the year before that. Meanwhile, Fred Taylor projected for over 1,200 rushing yards the past two years. In each year, Taylor received about 65 more carries than Jones-Drew. While I expect that gap to close somewhat, I still can’t possibly bet on Jones-Drew here.
Marques Colston -35.5 more receiving yards than T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Colston: -115) – These two were pretty much even the past two years in terms of receiving yards. I’m not going to touch this at -115 because it seems like a complete toss-up. However, Houshmandzadeh’s health concerns me.
Reggie Wayne -50.5 more receiving yards than Braylon Edwards (Wayne: -115) – This one could be close so I’m going to stay away. In his breakout year last year, Braylon Edwards had 1,300 receiving yards. Reggie Wayne, meanwhile, had 1,500, and 1,300 the year before. Wayne has the better quarterback and is in the better offense. With the return of Marvin Harrison, I see Wayne coming back to Earth a little bit to the 1,300 range. I personally don’t think Edwards will match his 1,300 yards from last year, but he certainly could. Not worth it for me at -115.
